Estimated Changes in Life Expectancy and Adult Mortality Resulting from Declining [FORMULA OMISSION] Exposures in the Contiguous United States: 1980–2010

Fann, Neal,Kim, Sun-Young,Olives, Casey,Sheppard, Lianne Environmental Health Perspectives 2017 Environmental health perspectives Vol.125 No.9

<P><B>Background:</B></P><P>[FORMULA OMISSION] precursor emissions have declined over the course of several decades, following the implementation of local, state, and federal air quality policies. Estimating the corresponding change in population exposure and [FORMULA OMISSION] risk of death prior to the year 2000 is made difficult by the lack of [FORMULA OMISSION] monitoring data.</P><P><B>Objectives:</B></P><P>We used a new technique to estimate historical [FORMULA OMISSION] concentrations, and estimated the effects of changes in [FORMULA OMISSION] population exposures on mortality in adults (age [FORMULA OMISSION]), and on life expectancy at birth, in the contiguous United States during 1980–2010.</P><P><B>Methods:</B></P><P>We estimated annual mean county-level [FORMULA OMISSION] concentrations in 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010 using universal kriging incorporating geographic variables. County-level death rates and national life tables for each year were obtained from the U.S. Census and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We used log-linear and nonlinear concentration–response coefficients from previous studies to estimate changes in the numbers of deaths and in life years and life expectancy at birth, attributable to changes in [FORMULA OMISSION].</P><P><B>Results:</B></P><P>Between 1980 and 2010, population-weighted [FORMULA OMISSION] exposures fell by about half, and the estimated number of excess deaths declined by about a third. The States of California, Virginia, New Jersey, and Georgia had some of the largest estimated reductions in [FORMULA OMISSION] deaths. Relative to a counterfactual population with exposures held constant at 1980 levels, we estimated that people born in 2050 would experience an [FORMULA OMISSION] increase in life expectancy at birth, and that there would be a cumulative gain of 4.4 million life years among adults [FORMULA OMISSION] of age.</P><P><B>Conclusions:</B></P><P>Our estimates suggest that declines in [FORMULA OMISSION] exposures between 1980 and 2010 have benefitted public health. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP507</P>

Heat Wave and Mortality: A Multicountry, Multicommunity Study

Guo, Yuming,Gasparrini, Antonio,Armstrong, Ben G.,Tawatsupa, Benjawan,Tobias, Aurelio,Lavigne, Eric,Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio,Pan, Xiaochuan,Kim, Ho,Hashizume, Masahiro,Honda, Yasu Environmental Health Perspectives 2017 Environmental health perspectives Vol.125 No.8

<P><B>Background:</B></P><P>Few studies have examined variation in the associations between heat waves and mortality in an international context.</P><P><B>Objectives:</B></P><P>We aimed to systematically examine the impacts of heat waves on mortality with lag effects internationally.</P><P><B>Methods:</B></P><P>We collected daily data of temperature and mortality from 400 communities in 18 countries/regions and defined 12 types of heat waves by combining community-specific daily mean temperature [FORMULA OMISSION], 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles of temperature with duration [FORMULA OMISSION], 3, and 4 d. We used time-series analyses to estimate the community-specific heat wave–mortality relation over lags of 0–10 d. Then, we applied meta-analysis to pool heat wave effects at the country level for cumulative and lag effects for each type of heat wave definition.</P><P><B>Results:</B></P><P>Heat waves of all definitions had significant cumulative associations with mortality in all countries, but varied by community. The higher the temperature threshold used to define heat waves, the higher heat wave associations on mortality. However, heat wave duration did not modify the impacts. The association between heat waves and mortality appeared acutely and lasted for 3 and 4 d. Heat waves had higher associations with mortality in moderate cold and moderate hot areas than cold and hot areas. There were no added effects of heat waves on mortality in all countries/regions, except for Brazil, Moldova, and Taiwan. Heat waves defined by daily mean and maximum temperatures produced similar heat wave–mortality associations, but not daily minimum temperature.</P><P><B>Conclusions:</B></P><P>Results indicate that high temperatures create a substantial health burden, and effects of high temperatures over consecutive days are similar to what would be experienced if high temperature days occurred independently. People living in moderate cold and moderate hot areas are more sensitive to heat waves than those living in cold and hot areas. Daily mean and maximum temperatures had similar ability to define heat waves rather than minimum temperature. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1026</P>

Air Pollution and Suicide in 10 Cities in Northeast Asia: A Time-Stratified Case-Crossover Analysis

Kim, Yoonhee,Ng, Chris Fook Sheng,Chung, Yeonseung,Kim, Ho,Honda, Yasushi,Guo, Yue Leon,Lim, Youn-Hee,Chen, Bing-Yu,Page, Lisa A.,Hashizume, Masahiro Environmental Health Perspectives 2018 Environmental health perspectives Vol.126 No.3

<P><B>Background:</B></P><P>There is growing evidence suggesting an association between air pollution and suicide. However, previous findings varied depending on the type of air pollutant and study location.</P><P><B>Objectives:</B></P><P>We examined the association between air pollutants and suicide in 10 large cities in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan.</P><P><B>Methods:</B></P><P>We used a two-stage meta-analysis. First, we conducted a time-stratified case-crossover analysis to estimate the short-term association between nitrogen dioxide ([FORMULA OMISSION]), sulfur dioxide ([FORMULA OMISSION]), and particulate matter [aerodynamic diameter [FORMULA OMISSION] ([FORMULA OMISSION]), aerodynamic diameter [FORMULA OMISSION] ([FORMULA OMISSION]), and [FORMULA OMISSION]] and suicide, adjusted for weather factors, day-of-week, long-term time trends, and season. Then, we conducted a meta-analysis to combine the city-specific effect estimates for [FORMULA OMISSION], [FORMULA OMISSION], and [FORMULA OMISSION] across 10 cities and for [FORMULA OMISSION] and [FORMULA OMISSION] across 3 cities. We first fitted single-pollutant models, followed by two-pollutant models to examine the robustness of the associations.</P><P><B>Results:</B></P><P>Higher risk of suicide was associated with higher levels of [FORMULA OMISSION], [FORMULA OMISSION], [FORMULA OMISSION], and [FORMULA OMISSION] over multiple days. The combined relative risks (RRs) were 1.019 for [FORMULA OMISSION] (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.999, 1.039), 1.020 for [FORMULA OMISSION] (95% CI: 1.005, 1.036), 1.016 for [FORMULA OMISSION] (95% CI: 1.004, 1.029), and 1.019 for [FORMULA OMISSION] (95% CI: 1.005, 1.033) per interquartile range (IQR) increase in the 0–1 d average level of each pollutant. We found no evidence of an association for [FORMULA OMISSION]. Some of the associations, particularly for [FORMULA OMISSION] and [FORMULA OMISSION], were attenuated after adjusting for a second pollutant.</P><P><B>Conclusions:</B></P><P>Our findings suggest that higher levels of air pollution may be associated with suicide, and further research is merited to understand the underlying mechanisms. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2223</P>

Changing Susceptibility to Non-Optimum Temperatures in Japan, 1972–2012: The Role of Climate, Demographic, and Socioeconomic Factors

Chung, Yeonseung,Yang, Daewon,Gasparrini, Antonio,Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.,Fook Sheng Ng, Chris,Kim, Yoonhee,Honda, Yasushi,Hashizume, Masahiro Environmental Health Perspectives 2018 Environmental health perspectives Vol.126 No.5

<P><B>Background:</B></P><P>Previous studies have shown that population susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures has changed over time, but little is known about the related time-varying factors that underlie the changes.</P><P><B>Objective:</B></P><P>Our objective was to investigate the changing population susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures in 47 prefectures of Japan over four decades from 1972 to 2012, addressing three aspects: minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and heat- and cold-related mortality risks. In addition, we aimed to examine how these aspects of susceptibility were associated with climate, demographic, and socioeconomic variables.</P><P><B>Methods:</B></P><P>We first used a two-stage time-series design with a time-varying distributed lag nonlinear model and multivariate meta-analysis to estimate the time-varying MMT, heat- and cold-related mortality risks. We then applied linear mixed effects models to investigate the association between each of the three time-varying aspects of susceptibility and various time-varying factors.</P><P><B>Results:</B></P><P>MMT increased from 23.2 [95% confidence interval (CI): 23, 23.6] to 28.7 (27.0, 29.7) °C. Heat-related mortality risk [relative risk (RR) for the 99th percentile of temperature vs. the MMT] decreased from 1.18 (1.15, 1.21) to 1.01 (0.98, 1.04). Cold-related mortality risk (RR for the first percentile vs. the MMT) generally decreased from 1.48 (1.41, 1.54) to 1.35 (1.32, 1.40), with the exception of a few eastern prefectures that showed increased risk. The changing patterns in all three aspects differed by region, sex, and causes of death. Higher mean temperature was associated ([FORMULA OMISSION]) with lower heat risk, whereas higher humidity was associated with higher cold risk. A higher percentage of elderly people was associated with a higher cold risk, whereas higher economic strength of the prefecture was related to lower cold risk.</P><P><B>Conclusions:</B></P><P>Population susceptibility to heat has decreased over the last four decades in Japan. Susceptibility to cold has decreased overall except for several eastern prefectures where it has either increased or remained unchanged. Certain climate, demographic, and socioeconomic factors explored in the current study might underlie this changing susceptibility. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2546</P>