북한의 경제관리개선조치의 의의와 향후 전망

김경일 고려대학교 북한학연구소 2003 49-61 Vol.41 No.40

Prospects for Social Change in North Korea

Robert H. Kim 고려대학교 북한학연구소 2001 北韓學硏究 Vol.2 No.-

사회학자들은 사회변화 동기여건을 몇가지로 보는데 천지개벽의 자연 및 환경의 변화, 지식, 과학 기술의 발달과 전파, 인간의 지능과 능력으로 행한 사회, 경제, 문화 분야의 계획 또는 전쟁, 또는 해외에서 발생한 변화발전이 자국에 수입되어 사회변화의 동기가 될 수 있다고 본다. 북한에도 분단 후 "민주개혁", 한국전쟁, 전쟁 후의 여러 경제계획, 사회문화계획 등으로 말미암아 많은 변화가 왔다. 이 변화는 특히 1955년 후 주체사상이라는 북한식 사회주의를 만드는 틀이 된 사상이 정치에서의 자주, 경제에서의 자립, 그리고 국방에서의 자위를 주장했다. 경제에서의 자립원칙을 자급자족이라는 경제정책으로 발전하였으며 북한은 사회주의 국가, 특히 구소련과 무역을 소규모로 진행하였으며 자본주의 국가들과는 통상을 하지 않았다. 이런 고립정책이 지금 북한의 산업·경제의 문제를 야기시켰다. 설상가상으로 국방에서의 자위는 국방 4대원칙과 결부되어 결국 1967년부터 국가예산의 30%를 군비증강에 사용하게 되어 어려운 경제에 더욱 심각한 문제를 가져왔다. 이와같은 경제 및 국방정책은 주민통제와 동원을 요구하게 되어 1960년대에 북한주민을 성분에 따라 분류하게 되었고 거주와 여행의 자유를 제한하고 또 직업의 자유선택을 금하였다. 이와같은 제반의 주민을 통제하는 정책은 유엔이 통과한 기본인권선언에 위배되는 것이다. 지금도 북한은 성분에 따라 주민을 분류하고 있으며 사회주의, 민주주의를 한다는 "조선 민주주의 인민공화국"은 엄연히 계급사회가 되었다. 북한주민은 굶주림에 시달리면서 양식을 구하기 위하여 떠돌아다니려 하여도 여행증을 가져야 하며 정부가 지정하여 준 거주지를 마음대로 떠날 수 없다. 북한정부가 자본주의 국가들과 외교관계를 확대하고 통상을 열게 되면서부터 주민의 통제는 더욱 심해간다. 작년 정상회담 후 평양에 체류하면서 북한주민의 생활을 관찰할 기회를 가졌는데 주민들은 정말 힘들게 살고 있으며 전쟁이라고 났으면 하는 그들이 바라는 최후의 선택이 지금 자기들의 생활보다는 좋을것이라고 생각하고 있다. 북한은 주민생활의 발전과 개선에 대하여서는 거의 20년동안 퇴보의 길을 걸어왔다.

4가지 통일 시나리오에 따르는 위기관리 프로그램의 개발연구

김동규 고려대학교 북한학연구소 2000 北韓學硏究 Vol.1 No.-

Abstract??초그림00-01??초그림00-02??초그림00-03??초그림0r Not only many a scenario for Korean unification is possible, but also there are many of them today. The purpose of the present study is to make survey of existing unification models that have been proposed, to study a variety of crisis management programs, and to present four new unification scenarios and responses relevant to each of the scenarios. There are many unification scenarios that are highly imanginary and hypothetical, but they have not suggested relevant responses to them. In the present study, the author presents relevant and possible responses to be made in political, economic, military, diplomatic, social and cultural affairs, given the four scenarios, and examines their legitimacy and practicality. The author is keenly aware of the similarity between his four unification scenarios and various unification models previously proposed by scholars. Included among them are the Three-stage Unification Plan, the National Communal system Model developed by the South Kurgan regime, the Koryo Federation Unification Plan of North Korea, the Report of the U.S. and CRS, the Unification Plan based on Neumann's game theory, the Five, Scenarios of Scalapino, and the Eight Unification Models. In the following discussion the four scenarios are explained. The First Scenario - Unification by Absorption (S-1) As suggested in the past by a number of scholars, this unification model is based on the assumption that North Korea would be absorbed by South Korea. The rationale for this absorption model derives from the following: (1) there has been no example in history where a nation divided into two has come together as two equals; (2)economic factors rather than political and military ones have been more influential in bringing about integration; and (3) the militarism and exclusion policy of North Korea constitute an inferior ruling ideology than that of South Korea's openness and democracy. In terms of political and economic responses to the integration model, a new constitution for unification has to be created, and a massive investment for the purpose of reviving North Korea's backward industrial and economic infrastructure has to be made on the basis of functionalism by South Korea so that North could reach economic parity with South. By functionalism, the author suggests the integration of South Korea's technical Dow-how and capital with North Korea's labor force, non-prost investment by South Korea's non-governmental agencies into North Korean industry, and mutual assistance and cooperation through sisterhood relations established between North Korean villages and those of South Korea. In regard to military and diplomatic responses, a proposal for a massive arms reduction and the withdrawal of the American armed forces from South Korea could be made in order to maintain a balance of power. Such proposal may contribute to easing China's as well as Russia's concerns with South Korea's primacy in the unification effort. In terms of social and cultural responses, educational programs should be developed in order to bring about "the change of consciousness" of North Korean citizens from conformity with tile Chuch'e ideology to diverse values, and from the collective exclusiveness to the individualistic openness. The Second Scenario - War on the Korean peninsula (S-2) Since 1962 North Korea has adopted as its principle of national management the so-called "Three Revolutions," which has contributed to the development of military technology, that threatens South Korea. It is possible to argue that North Korea has used the idea of "peaceful unification" as smoke screen for its military conquest of South Korea. In response to North Korea's aggressive military posture, South Korea should prepare itself militarily by orchestrating public opinion and creating a political culture that would bring about unity anions people. In the area of national economy, the government should invest in the development of a wartime mobilization system as well defense industry in association with tile national crisis management system. In terms of social and cultural responses, South Korean youth should be made keenly aware of the tragedy of the internecine war between North and South Korea. They should also be made aware of the importance of liberal democracy as well as true nature of North Korean system. What is most dangerous to South Korea today is the fact that its citizens are insensitive to national security needs. The Third Scenario - Peaceful Co-Existence (S-3) What is commonly understood by "peaceful-co-existence" today points to the reality of war-preparedness that exists between North and South, while maintaining the appearance of peace. This division of North and South has been supported by national policies of the U.S., China, and Japan. In spite of international forces working against Korean unification, it is still possible to overcome them, provided that there is high aspiration among Koreans in North and South. What is now needed is to generate an articulated national consensus for legitimacy and necessity for unification which can convince these international powers. A divided Korea will find itself unable to compete against advanced countries in the twenty-first century, and therefore the argument prevalent among today's Korean youth that a difficult unification should not be a must, becomes a major concern. With regard to social and cultural responses, every school at all levels of education should develop a curriculum in order to help students understand the true nature of North Korea. It is also desirable for every college and university to establish a departrnent of North Korean Studies in order to teach them about specialized knowledge on unification. The Fourth Scenario - Peaceful Unification (S-4) Examples of scenarios that belong to this category are the Unification Plan of National Communal System of South Korea and the Koryo Federation Unification Plan of North Korea. The North Korean plan may be characterized as a strategy for unification by means of socialist class revolution within South Korea, while the South Korean plan may be described as a functional approach to unification by creating reconciliation, cooperation and trust. The superiority of the South Korean plan in terms of its justification and legitimacy is explained in Figure 6. In conclusion, the problems association with Korean unification are diverse with multiple factors interacting with each other, and therefore one could derive almost limitless number of scenarios for unification from these forces. Even the four scenarios discussed here may not operate independently of each other; rather, unification may start with one scenario, for instance, S-2. But it may be completed with a different scenario, for instance, S-1. Of all possible scenarios for unification, one may consider S-4 as the most justifiable one; however, in terms of practicality, S-1 and S-2 scenarios seem to have the highest: predictability. From the standpoint of political reality facing us, we need to reply upon the wisdom of Yi Yul-gok, who proposed four hundred years ago a plan for training 100,000 soldiers. We can avoid a national tragedy by listening carefully to Hwang Jang-yop, who warned us against North Korea's intention for invasion. Ultimately, what is crucial for us to recognize is our reality that rejects both the evil communism of North Korea and the crass capitalism of South Korea, and therein lies the extreme difficulty of unification. But this is the problem we have to boldly face and work towards its solution.

김정일의 "선군정치(先軍政治)"와 "수재-엘리트(elite)" 교육체계

孫啓林 고려대학교 북한학연구소 2000 北韓學硏究 Vol.1 No.-

General Secretary Kim Jong Il developed military capabilities right after his inauguration into the highest position within the party, thus he maintained his ruling power internally and attempted to obtain the military initiative on the Korean peninsula, externally. He attempted to get the economic sanctions against the United States eased on the one hand, and tried to obtain maximum amounts of foreign aids on the other through foreign policy based up[on brinkmanship. For achieving these goals, he the P'yongyang regime has pursued its political, economic, military, foreign, educational-cultural and inter-cultural policies, directed by the military-oriented politics, thoroughly. Meanwhile, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) has initiated elite-oriented education by establishing the First Pyongyang Junior High school since 1983. I has expanded this form of education that consists of superior facilities and contents for all the districts in P'yongyang, and within each province and major cities under the direct control of the government. According to this policy, those graduates from the special "First Junior High Schools" have received recommendations to enter prestigious college and universities such as Kim Il Sung University, Kim Ch'aek Institute of Technology, and the P'yongyang College of Science. Also, students have been allowed to choose their subjects by themselves. In addition, some young children with special talents have been enrolled into the special classes operated by the prestigious institutes of arts and athletics. This educational policy has brought a number of criticisms. First, the elite-oriented educational system has raised disappointment among the people and created a type of barrier between the new generations. At the beginning, the purpose of the elite-oriented education was to improve the quality of education. But, the majority of common people in the 1990s realized that such an elite education bred a new special class, and those graduates from such institutions could move into the high class smoothly, while those from the ordinary schools lost chances to be enrolled at the colleges and universities. Instead, they were recruited to the military or labor camps, and were forced to live with no status change. Furthermore, the fact that the majority of the students of the elite schools were the children of the high officials within the Korean Workers Party disappointed the common people. They demanded to have true competitions on an equal basis, regardless of the background and status of their parents by saying that "all men are equal under the grades." Second, the elite-oriented education has become a toll solely devoted to the military-oriented politics led by the General Secretary Kim Jong Il. After the death of Kim Il Sung, the General Secretary ordered the inclusion of new subjects on the "Revolutionary Activities of Communist Mother Kim Jong suk," and "Revolutionary History of the Communist Fighter Kim Jong Suk" into the regular curriculum from the elementary school unto the university. This was an effort to strengthen ideological education for the new generation. Therefore, those students trained under the elite system have turned out to be new types of human beings with full of subjectiveness, loyalty, and fidelity; they would dare go into the fire for the Party and the Great Leader. Such students trained under the elite system are choosing voluntarily subjects which could be closely related to the military-oriented politics, and thus are eager to repay what Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il have given them. For instance, those who were given the chances to study abroad competed with each other to study nuclear physics or to devote their entire lies in the area of party propaganda by taking the "revolutionary history" of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. Third, the elite education led by the military-oriented politics has brought about some impact on the quality of the ordinary education. Since the mid-90s, the DPRK has increased its spending on the military to strengthen the military-oriented politics. But the negative economic growth over the last several years has reduced the amounts of investment for the compulsory education. As a consequence, there have· been shortages of textbooks, school supplies, and even school uniforms except for some students residing in special district in P'yongyang. Particularly, in the remote areas, such as border villages, the conditions are even worse; the ratios of school enrollment as well as entrance have continuously declined to reach a critical point where no one could ever expect normal school days at all. Therefore, the educational quality of each school has dropped sharply while those who were chosen to the elite courses can enjoy all the special treatments and exclusive privileges. Once the gap between the haves and have-nots was created and grew wider, it was inevitable to see several negative impacts on the constructive production and the overall political stability. Very few educational experts within the DPRK became worried much about such negative impacts.

김정일체제와 남북관계의 향방

한승주 고려대학교 북한학연구소 2001 北韓學硏究 Vol.2 No.-

남북정상회담에 따른 남북경협 및 투자관련 의제와 전망

남성욱 고려대학교 북한학연구소 2001 北韓學硏究 Vol.2 No.-

金日成의 統治이데올로기 연구 : 1955년부터 1974년까지

허동찬 고려대학교 북한학연구소 2000 北韓學硏究 Vol.1 No.-

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) became a more monolithic system led by the Kim Il Sung ideology and the dictatorship of Kim Il Sung and his son, Kim Jong Il, whenever a faction within the Korean workers Party was purged. The South Korea Workers Party was purged between 1952 and 1955. Kim Il Sung expressed his ideology under the title, "Juch'e(Self-reliance) in the Party Ideological Activities." He characterized party members who followed the "Korean Revolution" till its end as the true party members, while he purged those who failed to follow the line. The Party's Terror Ideology that has been spread in the name of Juch'e was far from the Marxism-Leninism. Since 1958, when the purge against the Chinese and Soviet factions was completed, Kim Il Sung began to indoctrinate people with the so-called revolutionary tradition of the Korean anti-Japanese Guerrilla war, thus misrepresenting the Chinese communists'anti-Japanese guerrilla struggles in which Kim Il sung himself had participated before Korea's liberation in1945. The history of struggles by Koreans, who followed the Marxist-Leninist line, was totally eliminated by Kim Il Sung. History and ideology in North Korea have become monolithic under Kim Il Sung, who has placed North Korea under a brutal repressive political system. He has violated law and placed Party guidance above the legal system. At the same time, the entire population was classified into three basic groups; Core, Wavering, and Hostile groups. These groups were further subdivided into 51 smaller groups. The Korean workers Party made up of the core of the core goop reigns over a rigid class society with absolute power, which defies a comparison with the power enjoyed by Stalin. Kim Il Sung also established a strict Party ideological structure largely based on loyalty to the Korean Workers Party's Central Committee. In 1967, Kim Il Sung purged Pak Kum-ch'ol and his faction. Since Pak's purge, Kim has presented the DPRK as a model of proletarian dictoatorship that consists of Suryong (the Supreme leader), the Party, the class system and the people. He placed the status of Suryong above the Party's Central Committee and made every effort to establish "the Monolithic Ideological system of the KWP," ruled by the Suryong. In 1973, Kim Il Sung chose his son Kim Jong Il as his heir and retired to the symbolic post of the President. Nevertheless, the DPRK has been ruled by the Kim Il Sung ideology that was created during the period of 1955-1974. The legitimacy of the Kim Jong Il rule is now rationalized by the Kim Il Sung ideology in the name of the "Politics of the Suryong's Will." He is unable to develop his own ideology replacing that of his father. It is therefore appropriate to say that there has been no real and meaningful changes in North Korea.

김정일 국방위원장의 '신사고'론과 신진 엘리트

전현준 고려대학교 북한학연구소 2001 北韓學硏究 Vol.2 No.-

Karl Mark's Critique of Religion

Kwon, Tae-Hyoung 고려대학교 북한학연구소 2001 北韓學硏究 Vol.2 No.-

이 세상에서 인간의 삶에 종교만큼 심원한 영향을 주는 요소는 없을 것이다. Karl Heinrich Marx 만큼 또한 종교에 대한 분명한 비판을 가한 인물도 쉽지 않다. 1818년 5월 5일 독일의 라인주에 있는 드리에르에서 태어났고, 1883년 3월 14일 65세의 일기로 운명을 마치고 영국 런던 북부 지역에 있는 하이게이트라는 공동묘지에 안장되었다. 살아있는 동안 그의 인생은 역정의 노정이었다. 베르린대학에서 1941년 철학박사학위를 취득하였다. 그의 전기 인생은 인간의 본질 문제에 관심을 가졌으나 후기 인생은 혁명 등 정치사회 문제에 정열을 쏟았다. 후기작품 〈자본론〉을 예로 들수 있다. 과학적 사회주의의 창시자로서 철학 및 법학에 정통한 학자였다. 그리고 또한 행동하는 학자였다. 1842년에는 〈타인신문〉의 주필로서 활동하기도 하였으나 결국 정부 압박으로 폐간되었다. 1844년 〈독불연지〉 〈전진〉을 편집하였고, 엥겔스와 인연을 맺게된다. 소장 헤겔 학파의 사상을 대항하여 청산시키며 1848년에는 Manifest der kommunistischen partei를 선언하였다. 1864년에는 제 1 인터내셔널을 묶어 조직지도 하였다. 1849년 런던으로 건너갔으며 궁핍속에서 이론 발전 및 실천에 최선을 다하다가 인생의 최후를 맞이하게 된다. 그는 본디 유태인이었고 변호사인 아버지를 따라 개신교로 개종하였으나 프러시아 사회에서 유태인이란 이유로 수모를 당했고 아이러니칼하게도 유태인 사회에서도 배신자로 멸시를 당해 그의 마음속에 유태교에 대한 강렬한 적개심이 더욱더 싹트게 된 것으로 해석된다. 막스의 조부는 대대로 유태교 지도자인 람비였고, 막스자신이 이스라엘의 역사와 전통도 너무나 잘 알고 있는 사람이엇으나 유태인들의 지나친 에고적 자세와 금전숭배에 대해서 환멸을 느끼며 강렬하게 비판적 시야를 갖게 된 것으로 볼 수 있다. 막스의 삶의 환경은 지적성장과 통찰력을 갖기에 충분한 엘리트의 가정적 환경속에서 성장하였다. 그의 잠재 의식 속에 이미 신에 대한 종교적 저주와 자본주의에 대한 환멸 그리고 조국인 유태사회에 대한 강렬한 적개심은 그의 종교비판 사상형성에 원인 제공이 됐을 가능성도 있다. 막스의 종교비판 사상의 영향은 사실상 Ludwig Feurbach(1804-1872)로 부터 비롯되었으며 막스는 종교비판에서 경제, 정치 비판에까지 영역을 확산시켜 발전시켰던 것이다. 막스는 종교를 자본주의자들이 노동자-농민을 갈취하기 위해서 만들어낸 인간의 종교로 규정하면서 종교는 인간의 혁명투쟁을 약화시키는 아편(opium)으로 간주하였다. 종교는 지배계급의 착취수단이며 기독교는 제국주의자들의 침략적 수단이라고 비판하였다. 아울러 종교는 비합리적 무지의 산물이므로 과학적 발전이 이루어지면 사라질 수밖에 없는 것으로 해석하였다. 인간론에 있어서도 사회적 유기체적 존재로서 사람의 정신성을 부정하고 인간의 존재론 물질의 반영으로 해석한 나머지 인간의 죽음 후에 내세란 존재할 수 없으며 육체의 죽음이 곧 삶의 종국으로 해석하고 있는 것이다. 결국 막스에게 있어서 진정한 구원은 영혼의 구원이 아니라 물질의 궁핍을 해결해야만 된다는 현실론에서 시작하고 있는 것이다. 마르크스주의 3대 핵심요소가 첫째로 변증법적 유물사관, 둘째로 자본주의 몰락에 대한 경제학적 관점, 셋째로 프로레타리아 혁명이다. 이러한 핵심사상은 이미 종교가 영적 가치로서 인간존재의 영성에 대안 의미를 부여할 틈새를 이미 봉쇄시킨 것이다. 결국 막스에게 있어서 종교는 노동자에 대한 고등착취수단이며 종교가 내세를 설교하므로 현실인식의 해이를 초래하고 민중을 노예로 전략시키며 심지어 인간을 환각상태에 몰아넣으므로 투쟁과 혁명의 의지를 탈취하는 지배수단으로 해석하고 있다. 즉 종교자체를 침략의 수단이며 인간의 행복을 약탈하는 마약으로 단정하고 있는 것이다. 그러므로 종교자체를 시급히 청산해야 될 대상으로 보고 있는 것이다. 종교가 막스의 해석대로 대중 의식속에서 인간에게 무기력함을 불어 넣고 타락된 정신을 제공하는 아편일까? 막스의 종교비판은 많은 문제를 않고 있음에도 불구하고 나름대로 19세기 초 산업혁명과 프랑스 혁명의 여파로 격동하는 서유럽 사회의 현실을 변증하려고 했던 노력을 간과할 수 없다. 부의 편중, 농촌의 황폐화, 사상의 혼란 등을 당시 인간의 존재와 행복 그리고 소외 등에 대한 문제가 사회적, 정치적, 경제적 측면에서 해결이 요청되는 시점에서 막스의 이론은 관심을 끌기에 충분했다고 본다. 당시 혼란한 사회의 구세주는 형이상학적인 신적 존재가 아니라 당장 빵을 제공하는 수단이며 인간의 불행과 소외를 해결한 유일한 길이라고 해석되어질 수밖에 없는 상황이었다. 즉, 막스의 종교비판은 당시의 상황에 대한 사회과학적 접근과 논리적 분석으로 날카로운 시각을 던져준 것은 의미있는 것이라고 본다.

북한의 군사노선과 한반도 군사위협

이중형 고려대학교 북한학연구소 2000 北韓學硏究 Vol.1 No.-

"Ideology, gun, and the science & technology are the three pillars of the strong and prosperous county," "Militarism is the basic and the most fundamental strategy to keep forever and the number one national affairs once there is imperialism and continuity for revolution," The Korean Revolution initiated by the guns should be completed till the end," are the steal-like belief of the Great Leader Kim Jong-Il.... Rodong Shinmun (January 1, 2000) Under Kim Il Sung's guidance the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) adopted four major military lines (self-reliant military policy) at the fifth meeting of the 4th Central Committee of the Korean Workers Party in December 1962. The economic policy centered on heavy industry was successful in building strong military forces, but it has resulted in the collapse of general economy. Millions of people starved to death and North Korea has appealed to the international society for help by revealing the starvation of its people. But the food shortage and disdain from the world cannot stop the DPRK from reinforcing its military forces as well as frequent provocations. It launched its first long-range missile, or its first satellite (called Bright Star) on August 31, 1998, and continues to develop mass destruction weapons such as chemical weapons, nuclear bombs and lone-range missiles. The military-oriented policy of North Korea has contributed greatly to the building of a militarily strong state, but it has filed to develop its economy. The construction of self-reliant socialism was nothing but an empty slogan which could never present solutions to its staggering economic problems. North Korea now maintains the fifth largest military forces in the world, and its goal for maintaining such large forces has been the communizatin of the entire Korean peninsula. The DPRK has developed three major first-strike strategies towards South Korea. First, a blitzkrieg! The Korean People's Army of the DPRK has developed surprise and simultaneous attack strategies to turn the Korean peninsula into a battlefield, and complete the war before the arrival of additional U.S. forces by penetrating deep into the center with rapid mechanized forces. Second, the brinkmanship. The DPRK has benefited economically from its brinkmanship tactics used against the U.S., Japan, and the Republic of Korea (ROK), In spite of such tactics, one cannot rule out the possibility of direct use of the strategic weapons. Third, provocative tactics of lower degree. Kim Il Sung proclaimed during a 1960 rally of the KWP that the critical mass of revolutionary forces could not be produced by waiting that is long prolonged. Revolutionary struggles should continue with a proper mixture of politics, economy, violence, non-violence, legal and illegal means in accordance with changing situations. Following the spirit of Kim Il Sung's speech, North Korea initiated a couple of provocations, including the intentional infiltration into the West Sea in June 1999. The major elements of threat of the Korean People's Army against South Korea are as follows: Special Commandos: The special troops of 100,000 men organized as the Light Infantry Division, are the major forces for provoking low intensive strife, but are also capable of launching simultaneous attacks both on the frontline and in the rear area by facilitating combined operations with the regular army. Conventional Long-range Artillery: North Korea's long-range artillery that include 170㎜ self-propelled guns, 240㎜ emission guns, and FROG-5/7 ground-to-ground rockets installed in the early 1990s are capable of creating havoc in the Seoul metropolitan areas, whenever used. Fighter Bombers: The most serious threat against the strategic targets are 6000 fighter planes and 80 more bombers. The 60MIG-l7s deployed on the frontline areas can reach Seoul in 6minutes. Mechanized Units: The mechanized units, major combat forces, are rapid penetration forces armored with impulse, firepower, bombproof and speed. The Korean People's Army maintains four mechanized corps, one tank corps, and two artillery corps that can carry out brigade-level operations independently, and they can surround the northern part of Suwon (40㎞ south of Seoul) in 24hours. Strategic Weapons: North Korea that maintains the NCND has developed strategic weapons in secret. South Korea has complied with the international agreements of IAEA, CWC, MTCR, and BWC, and does not develop any strategic weapons. However, the DPRK continues to develop such weapons in violation of these agreements, and it thus threatens Japan, the United States and South Korea with its kill rates and long-range delivery system. George J. Tenet revealed at the U.S. Senate Special Intelligence Committee on February 2, 2000 that the test launcing of the DPRK Rodong 1 long-range missile has confirmed North Korea's capability for launching the nuclear bomb-tipped Rodong 2 (ICBM) against the United States within this year. Caspar W. Weinberger, former U.S. Secretary of Defense, and Jun Ik Chang, former principal at of the Korean Military Academy, put these three strategies and five elements of threat in realistic terms in their articles, '"The Next War," and "North Korean Nuclear&Missile War," respectively. These authors have sent us warning signals about the dangers of war on the Korean peninsula. Can or is North Korea suffering front the severe shortage of food, provoke a war? Does a danger of war on the Korean peninsula exist? These ambiguous questions only tend to paralyze people whose concerns with their safety are lulled into superficial peace. North Korea has continued to strengthen ifs war capability in spite of the agony of its people over the lack of their daily necessities. And yet, North Korea is today superior to South Korea in the areas of manpower, military equipment, organization and strategies. The engagement policy of South Korea can never succeed without its strong defense capabilities and the security concerns of its people. The government should be prepared for the threat of North Korea's military power for conventional and other wars. At the same time, South Korea should actively participate in the cooperative system of defense with the U.S. and Japan.