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        Development and Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram Based on Clinical and CT Features for Adverse Outcome Prediction in Patients with COVID-19

        Zheng Yingyan,Xiao Anling,Yu Xiangrong,Zhao Yajing,Lu Yiping,Li Xuanxuan,Mei Nan,She Dejun,Wang Dongdong,Geng Daoying,Yin Bo 대한영상의학회 2020 Korean Journal of Radiology Vol.21 No.8

        Objective: The purpose of our study was to investigate the predictive abilities of clinical and computed tomography (CT) features for outcome prediction in patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Materials and Methods: The clinical and CT data of 238 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in our two hospitals were retrospectively analyzed. One hundred sixty-six patients (103 males; age 43.8 ± 12.3 years) were allocated in the training cohort and 72 patients (38 males; age 45.1 ± 15.8 years) from another independent hospital were assigned in the validation cohort. The primary composite endpoint was admission to an intensive care unit, use of mechanical ventilation, or death. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard analyses were performed to identify independent predictors. A nomogram was constructed based on the combination of clinical and CT features, and its prognostic performance was externally tested in the validation group. The predictive value of the combined model was compared with models built on the clinical and radiological attributes alone. Results: Overall, 35 infected patients (21.1%) in the training cohort and 10 patients (13.9%) in the validation cohort experienced adverse outcomes. Underlying comorbidity (hazard ratio [HR], 3.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.67–6.71; p < 0.001), lymphocyte count (HR, 0.12; 95% CI, 0.04–0.38; p < 0.001) and crazy-paving sign (HR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.03–4.48; p = 0.042) were the independent factors. The nomogram displayed a concordance index (C-index) of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.76–0.88), and its prognostic value was confirmed in the validation cohort with a C-index of 0.89 (95% CI, 0.82–0.96). The combined model provided the best performance over the clinical or radiological model (p < 0.050). Conclusion: Underlying comorbidity, lymphocyte count and crazy-paving sign were independent predictors of adverse outcomes. The prognostic nomogram based on the combination of clinical and CT features could be a useful tool for predicting adverse outcomes of patients with COVID-19.

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        Clinical Prognostic Factors in 86 Chinese Patients with Primary Myelodysplastic Syndromes and Trisomy 8: A Single Institution Experience

        Xin-Yue Liu,Qing-Fang Yue,Lei Chen,Xiao-Mei She,Bin Hu,Yu Hu,Ping Zou 연세대학교의과대학 2016 Yonsei medical journal Vol.57 No.2

        Purpose: The objective was to determine the characteristics and prognostic factors of 86 Chinese patients with trisomy 8 aberrationsand compare the prognostic value of International Prognostic System (IPSS) and Revised IPSS (IPSS-R) in this cohort. Materials and Methods: A total of 86 cases diagnosed with primary myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) with isolated tr8 or with tr8 and other additional cytogenetic aberrations diagnosed and treated at the Union Hospital, Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology between July 2002 and March 2013 were reviewed. Results: The median survival of the entire group was 23.0 months, and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) developed in 43% (37/86) patients within the follow up time. The univariate analysis revealed that overall survival (OS) was correlated with age, thrombocytopenia,absolute neutrophil count, marrow blasts, cytogenetic status and red blood cell transfusion at diagnosis, and the multivariateanalysis revealed that age, marrow blasts, cytogenetic status and transfusion dependence were independent parameters for the OS. The cytogenetic complexity and marrow blasts had the strongest impact on the AML transformation by multivariate analysis. Comparing the two prognostic systems, both two systems could successfully discriminate risk groups for survival. IPSS-R was more refined than IPSS for predicting OS, but had no advantage in predicting the risk of AML development. Conclusion: This study confirmed the influence of clinical factors on the prognosis of 86 Chinese MDS patients with trisomy 8. In addition, IPSS-R can further refine prognostic discrimination in the IPSS risk categories.

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