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An Intrusive Method for the Uncertainty Propagation
P. Dossantos-Uzarralde,V. Nimal,G. Dejonghe,M. Sancandi,R. Andre,S. Hilaire 한국물리학회 2011 THE JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN PHYSICAL SOCIETY Vol.59 No.23
Models of physical processes like particle scattering often require adjusted parameters to fit experimental data. These parameters are basically uncertain and this feature spreads through the model down to the solution. In this study, an intrusive method of uncertainty propagation, based on Galerkin projection over chaos polynomials, is proposed for optical model calculations. This provides a way to evaluate the uncertainty of the solution induced by the uncertain parameters of the Wood-Saxon potential used form. We employ generalized polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) to express the random response of the optical model and obtain a set of deterministic coupled equations for the expansion coefficients by Galerkin projection. We justify the use of the Cowell method to solve this system in a decoupled fashion. Several moments of the solution are re-built. We provide an illustration of these method for the n+Y^(89) system.
E. Bauge,P. Dossantos-Uzarralde 한국물리학회 2011 THE JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN PHYSICAL SOCIETY Vol.59 No.23
The question of uncertainties associated with evaluated nuclear data is at the core of the economic feasibility of future energy generation systems like those discussed in the GEN IV forum. With the increasing reliance on nuclear models (like TALYS) to perform evaluations, comes the problem of estimating the uncertainties associated with model calculations. For that purpose, the Backward-Forward Monte-Carlo Method (BFMC) was proposed. It relies on the use of experimental data (both differential and integral) to constrain the probability distribution function of model parameters through a generalized χ^2 estimator. That model parameter probability distribution function is then propagated to the observables (cross sections) by Monte-Carlo sampling. In the present paper, for the first time, the BFMC method is applied to the case of a fissile target nucleus, namely ^(239)Pu. We will report on the method itself as well as on the resulting covariance matrix and its significance for the quality of present evaluated data for future nuclear energy generation projects.