역사지도 데이타베이스 구축을 통한 한국 비무장지대(DMZ)와 독일 그뤼네스반트의 토지이용 및 토지피복 변화 분석 (II)

( Oh Seok Kim ),( Marco Neubert ) 한국환경정책평가연구원 2019 기본연구보고서 Vol.2019 No.-

본 연구는 한반도의 비무장지대(Demilitarized Zone, 이하 DMZ)와 독일의 그뤼네스반트 또는 그린벨트(Grünes Band 또는 Green Belt, 이하 GB) 일부 및 인근 지역의 토지이용 및 토지피복 변화를 비교·분석하는 것이 주된 목적이다. 비교연구를 통해 인간과 자연 간의 지속가능한 공존 가능성을 살펴보는 것이 궁극적인 목표이다. 한반도와 독일은 각각 국가 분단을 경험한 역사적 공감대가 있다. 한국과 북한 사이에는 DMZ가 1953년부터 놓여져 있어 왔고, 과거 구동독과 구서독 사이에는 ‘죽음의 띠’ 또는 ‘철의 장막’이라 불리우는 무장지대가 있었다. 1990년, 독일의 재통일 이후 해당 지역은 GB로 탈바꿈해 현재에 이르기까지 체계적으로 보존되어 왔다. 하지만, DMZ는 군사적 목적에 의해 아직 접근이 어려울 뿐이지 체계적인 보존 대책이 아직 존재하지 않는다. 전년도 연구는 한반도와 독일의 분단 상황에서의 경관변화를 분석하였다면, 금년도 연구는 활발한 교류 또는 통일 상황 하에서 예상되는 경관변화를 비교·분석하였다. 독일의 경우와는 다르게 한반도는 아직 통일이 되지 않았으므로 여기에 미래 토지이용 및 토지피복 변화를 전망할 수 있는 모델링을 적용해 미래의 상황을 체계적으로 유추할 필요가 있다. 모델링 기법 적용 시 다양한 토지이용 시나리오를 도입하면, 미래의 불확실한 상황을 모의하는데 있어 더 유리한 점이 있다. 단 하나의 경우만 고려하기에 DMZ의 미래가 너무 불분명하기 때문이다. 한편, 독일의 경우는 재통일이 된지 30년 가까이 지났으므로 변화탐지분석을 적용하여 경관변화를 분석할 수 있다. 연구질문은 아래와 같다. 첫째, 독일 재통일 이후, 25년 간 세 시점(1990, 2000, 2014년)의 토지피복지도를 근·현대지도와 위성영상에 근거해 구축하고 시계열 변화를 분석해 본 결과, 구동독과 구서독 중 어느 지역이 더욱 많이 변화하였는가? 둘째, 재통일 이전·이후의 변화 패턴이 같은가? 만약 다르다면, 어떻게 다른가? 마지막으로 셋째, 전년도에 구축한 1951년과 2015년 시점의 토지피복지도에 근거하여, 50년 이후의 DMZ 미래를 ‘현 상태 유지’와 ‘독일 그뤼네스반트’ 시나리오로 모의했을 때, DMZ의 토지이용 및 토지피복 변화는 각각 어떻게 나타나는가? 분석결과, 독일은 재통일 이후에도 구동독의 토지이용 및 토지피복 변화가 구서독보다 활발한 것으로 나타났다. 재통일 이전과 이후의 변화 패턴은 변화감지분석 결과만 고려하였을 때 별다른 차이가 없었다. 하지만, 겉으로 드러난 토지이용 및 토지피복 변화 패턴이 비슷해 보여도 문헌조사, 현지답사, 인터뷰 등을 통해 정성적으로 조사해 본 결과, 구동독의 경관변화를 야기하는 시기별 기저요인은 각기 다른 것으로 나타났다. 재통일 이전에는 공산·사회주의 체제 하의 집단농장 구축과 군사진지화로 인한 경관변화가 주를 이루었다. 재통일 이후에는 시장경제로 인하여 기존의 농지가 대농장화되면서 많은 변화가 발생하였다. 시가화지역은 재통일과 크게 상관없이 꾸준히 증가해왔고, 습지는 꾸준히 감소해왔다. 재통일 이후에 발생한 주된 변화는 크게 두 가지이다. 먼저, 과거 구동독과 구서독의 접경지역이었던 ‘죽음의 띠’ 또는 ‘철의 장막’이 GB로 변화한 것을 토지피복지도를 통해 확인할 수 있다. 그 다음으로, 이를 가로지르는 고속도로(아우토반)이 개통된 것이 커다란 변화인데, GB를 지나는 구간에 터널을 설치하여 자연환경의 훼손을 최소화한 점이 괄목할 만하다. 한반도 연구지역에 시나리오 모델링을 적용한 결과를 제시하기에 앞서, 본 연구에 사용한 토지이용 및 토지피복 변화 모델의 수리적인 알고리즘과 미래 토지이용변화 시나리오에 대한 세부적인 내용을 요약하면 아래와 같다. 모델의 이름은 Land Change Modeler(이하, LCM)로 미국 클락대학교의 지리공간정보분석연구소인 클락랩스(Clark Labs)에서 개발한 털셋(TerrSet)의 토지이용 및 토지피복 변화 시뮬레이션을 담당하는 모듈이다. LCM은 변화의 면적과 위치를 양분하여 미래의 상황을 모의한다. 면적의 총량은 마코프 체인(Markov Chain)에 근거해 전망하였고, 변화 위치 정보는 다층퍼셉트론(Multi-Layer Perceptron)을 활용하여 파악하였다. 다층퍼셉트론의 입력자료로 철도, 주요 도로, 해발고도, 경사도, 향, 토지피복 등을 고려하였다. ‘현 상태 유지(Business-As-Usual, 이하 BAU)’ 시나리오는 한반도 분단 이후로 부터 현재에 이르기까지의 토지이용 경향을 미래 상황에 투영한 것이다. 환경영향평가를 생략한 개성공단 제2,3,4지구 완공, 경의선 및 국도 제1호선 개보수 등이 여기에 포함된다. 더 나아가, 고려시대 역사유적인 나성 성곽 및 그 주변 지역과 DMZ에 행위제한 법제가 존재하지 않는 시나리오이다. 기존의 지속가능하지 않은 개발의 압력을 저감할 수 없는 상황을 의미한다. 이와 대비되는 상황인 ‘독일 그뤼네스반트(Grünes Band Deutschland, 이하 GBD)’ 시나리오는 DMZ와 고려시대 유적지에 행위제한을 설정해 해당 토지이용변화를 전적으로 지양하는 내용이 주를 이룬다. 이것은 독일의 튜링기아(Thuringia) 주정부에서 GB를 국가자연기념물(National Nature Monument)로 지정해 보존하고 있는 점을 벤치마킹한 것이고, 이는 국제적 차원에서 IUCN(International Union for Conservation of Nature) 보호지역 범주에 포함된다. 고려시대의 수도였던 개성은 2013년 다수의 문화유적지를 UNESCO(United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) 세계유산으로 등재하였고, 나성 성곽도 이에 포함된다. GBD 시나리오는 DMZ와 나성 성곽에 법제를 통한 엄격한 행위제한을 가정해 온전히 보존하는 상황을 가정한다. 더 나아가, 대규모 개발사업인 개성공단의 나머지 계획을 전면 백지화한 상황을 가정해 미래 토지이용 및 토지피복 변화를 모의하였다. 그 결과, BAU 시나리오 하에서는 DMZ 내에 지속해서 경관변화가 발생하는 것으로 나타나 추가적인 환경훼손의 가능성이 높아질 것으로 예상된다. 기존 개성 시 가지는 개성공단 제3지구와 연계되어 개발이 집중될 것으로 나타났다. 고려 나성성곽은 이들 지역 사이에 위치하고 있으므로 현 상태의 개발경향이 계속 유지된다면 추가적인 훼손이 불가피한 것으로 보인다. GBD 시나리오 하에서는 DMZ와 나성 성곽은 변하지 않으므로 이들과 관련해서는 추가적인 환경훼손의 가능성이 낮을 것으로 예상된다. 그러나, 법제를 통해 행위제한을 엄격하게 제한한 공간역을 벗어나면 바로 난개발이 만연할 것으로 분석되었다. 특히, 개성공단 제1지구와 DMZ 사이 지역이 개발에 매우 취약한 것으로 나타나는데, 이 지역은 개성공단 제1지구 뿐만 아니라 경의선, 국도 제1호선과도 인접해 있고 대부분이 평지로 이루어져 있어 개발하는 데 있어 유리하기 때문이다. 한편, 해당지역은 DMZ와 인접하는바 환경적으로도 민감한 지역이라고도 볼 수 있으므로 이는 개발과 보전이 상충하는 공간역의 대표적인 예시인 셈이다. 본 연구가 정책적인 측면에서 시사하는 바를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 개발을 중요하게 여기는 BAU 시나리오와 환경보존을 중하게 여기는 GBD 시나리오 모두 DMZ와 인근의 자연환경 및 역사경관을 효과적으로 보전하는 데 있어 각자의 한계점을 드러냈다. 남북 관계가 개선되는 가운데 본 연구에서 적용한 시나리오의 한계를 보완한 지속가능한 DMZ 토지이용 계획 마련이 시급하다. 미래의 계획은 최우선적으로 남북이 동의할 수 있는 내용이어야 하는바, 이를 위해서는 한국과 북한의 개발수요와 환경보전 수요를 균형있게 고려하는 것이 필수적이다. 국제연합(United Nations, UN)의 지속가능 개발목표(Sustainable Development Goals, 이하 UN SDGs)는 국제사회 차원에서 이미 합의를 본 내용이므르 UN SDGs에 명시된 틀을 활용해 DMZ와 인접 지역에 지속가능한 토지이용 계획을 마련하는 것이 필요하다. This study mainly compares and analyzes land-use and land-cover changes in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) on the Korean peninsula and in parts of the German Green Belt (GB). The Korean peninsula and Germany have the historical similarity that they have both experienced divisions of the state. The DMZ has been emplaced between South Korea and North Korea since 1953. In the past, there was a strongly fortified border zone called the “Death Strip” or the “Iron Curtain” between East Germany and West Germany. In 1990, after German reunification, the area was converted into the so-called “Green Belt” and is still conserved systematically to the present day. However, no systematic conservation measures yet exist for the DMZ. Our 2018 study analyzed landscape changes in the situation of the separated Korea and Germany. In this follow-up report, the landscape changes are compared and examined under the condition of reunification. Unlike in the case of Germany, the Korean peninsula has not yet been reunified, so it is necessary to apply a predictive modeling approach to forecast future land-use and land-cover changes and infer the future situation systematically. The introduction of land-use scenarios in the application of modeling techniques has the advantage of simulating multiple futures, given that the DMZ’s future is too unclear to consider only one prediction. In contrast, it has been already 30 years since the German reunification. That is, for the German case, a predictive modeling approach is not required, so a change detection analysis can be applied instead. The research questions are as follows: (1) Which part of Germany (either former East or West) has experienced more change than the other, after the reunification based on the three land-cover maps of 1990, 2000, and 2014? (2) Before and after the reunification, do the change patterns differ? If so, how? (3) Based on the Korean land-cover maps of 1951 and 2015, the two scenarios, namely “Business-as-usual” and “Grünes Band Deutschland”, are simulated for the next 50 years for the case on the Korean peninsula. How do the simulated land-use and land-cover changes of the two scenarios differ? Following reunification, land-use and land-cover changes in East Germany have been more intensive than those in West Germany. Change patterns showed little difference before and after the reunification, only when the results of the change detection analysis were considered. However, even though the patterns of landuse and land-cover changes seemed to be similar, qualitative investigations through literature reviews, field trips, and interviews showed that the underlying forces causing the changes in East Germany were different over time. Before the reunification, the land-use and land-cover changes in the East German border region were mainly caused by the establishment of collective farms and by the expansion of military border fortification under the communist and socialist regimes. After the reunification, a market economy and capitalism were introduced. The introduction changed the underlying forces, and the change triggered the conversion from older collective farming to privatized large-scale agriculture, which uses lands intensively. Besides, settlement areas have been steadily increasing, but wetlands have been steadily decreasing regardless of separation and reunification. Two major changes have been noticeable since the reunification. The changedetection analysis showed that the protective strip―or so-called “Death Strip”― was converted into a GB largely. The other major change was the opening of the highway (Autobahn) across the former border region, and, remarkably, the damage to the natural environment was minimized by installing a tunnel in the section passing through the GB. Before presenting the results of the scenario modeling application to the study area on the Korean peninsula, the details and scenarios of modeling land-use and land-cover changes are summarized as follows. Developed by Clark Labs, the Land Change Modeler (LCM), an analytical module that simulates the land-use and land-cover changes, was used to simulate the future of the study area. LCM divides land-use and land-cover changes into two components: the amount of change and the spatial allocation of change. The former was estimated based on the Markov Chain, while the latter (the spatial allocation) was identified using a multi-layer perceptron (a type of an artificial neural network). Input data include railways, major roads, elevation, slope, and aspect, in addition to the land-cover maps for two points in time. The two land-use scenarios are applied in this research and explained as follows. The Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario reflects the historical trend of land use projected to the future. This scenario considered the pro-development tendency of the Korean peninsula. The BAU scenario includes completing the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th districts of the Kaesong Industrial Complex as planned and renovating the existing railways and major roads. It is likely that a proper environmental impact assessment will be omitted. Furthermore, this BAU scenario assumes no law enforcement regarding the conservation of the DMZ and historical castle walls. It means that the pressure of existing unsustainable development cannot be reduced. In contrast, the Grünes Band Deutschland (GBD) scenario consists mainly of setting restrictions on the DMZ and the ruins of the Goryeo Dynasty to limit the changes in land use and land cover in the region. This idea was borrowed from the state of Thuringia, Germany, as that state legally designated the GB as a National Nature Monument, which is also regarded as the protected area by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). In 2013, Kaesong, the capital of the Goryeo Dynasty, was registered as World Heritage by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). The GBD scenario assumes that the DMZ and ruins of the Goryeo Dynasty are fully preserved under strict legal protection. Furthermore, we assumed that the remaining plans of the Kaesong Industrial Complex were no longer taking place. As a result, under the BAU scenario, land-use and land-cover changes continue to occur within the DMZ, which is expected to increase the possibility of further environmental damage. The existing built areas of Kaesong downtown will be expanded further as these will connect with the 3rd district of Kaesong Industrial Complex. Such a connection will lure more concentrated development than when not connected. Because the ruins of the Goryeo Dynasty are located between downtown Kaesong and the 3rd district of Kaesong Industrial Complex, further damage appears inevitable. Under the GBD scenario, the DMZ and historical sites remain unchanged because they are legally well protected, so little damage would be expected in these areas. However, unplanned development will prevail for those areas that are not under legal protection. In particular, the region between the 1st district of Kaesong Industrial Complex and the DMZ appears to be genuinely vulnerable to development. This region is flat in nature, is adjacent to existing development such as the Kaesong Industrial Complex, and is close to the major transportation network that cuts through the DMZ, connecting the two Koreas. However, this region is essential in an environmental sense because of its adjacency to the DMZ. That is, the region is a clear illustration of conflicts between conservation and development. The research outcomes demonstrate a vital policy implication. Both scenarios, whether one is pro-conservation or not, were not able to conserve the landscape of the DMZ successfully. As inter-Korean relations improve, it is critical to develop a sustainable land-use plan of the DMZ region that complements the limitations of the two scenarios applied in this research. A future plan cannot be realized without a consensus between the two Koreas, and it is essential to balance the needs of South Korea and North Korea, both conservation and development-wise. As the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs) provide a compelling list of agendas and have already reached an agreement at the international level, making good use of the UN SDGs may be beneficial to both South and North Korea. If successful, we may indeed be able to come up with a sustainable land-use plan for the DMZ and adjacent areas.

A retrospect of Baduk in the GDR

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Memory search performance is commonly required in many daily life and professional careers. Sternberg MemorySearch Task (MST) is originally designed to test working memory (WM) retrieval function. However, in differentscenarios, memorizing a string of letters (i.e., stimulus items in original (MST) may not be able to represent the realtask characteristics, in this case for a specific soccer player population. Therefore, a modified MST was designedbased on literature review and interview with soccer players. With the same numbers of WM requirements with theoriginal MST, the modified MST was designed to adopt numeric (player numbers) and color codes (team uniform) asstimuli. The objective of this study was to preliminarily compare subjective workload perception during the originaland modified MST performance. Seven healthy male university students (average age of 30.7±8.0 years) were recruited to participate in this study. All participants were asked to perform both the original and modified MST including low and high workload intensity conditions. All subjective workload scores were collected by using NASA-TaskLoad Index (NASA-TLX). In general, the results showed increase in workload intensity to induce higher workloadperception for both test conditions. Mental Demands and Effort contributed as major demanding components of thiscognitive task type. Although overall workload of both tests was comparable, subscale workload scores of the modified MST found to be lower than the original MST. The findings suggested that the modified MST can be used to testsimilar demanding workload component target, as compared with the original MST. However, since different types ofsymbolic information posed different levels of mental workload perception, the task stimuli should be carefully designed to represent actual characteristics of the task of interest.

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Semi-Insulating 4~6-Inch GaAs Crystals Grown in Low Temperature Gradients by the VCz Method

P.Rudolph,M.Czupalla,Ch.Frank-Rotsch,F.Kiessling,M.Neubert,M.Pietsch 한양대학교 세라믹연구소 2003 Journal of Ceramic Processing Research Vol.4 No.2

The results of growth of semi-insulating GaAs crystals with diameters of 100-150 mm and lengths up to 200 mm from the melt with starting charges up to 25 kg by the low-temperature gradient Vapour Pressure Controlled Czochralski method (VCz) are given and compared with the state of art of LEC growth. The methodical process optimization was assisted by global numerical simulations. A slightly convex interface morphology has been found to be the most suitable for moderate EPD of ~104 cm-2 in 150-mm crystals whilst simultaneously depressing the probability of dislocation bunchings. The carbon concentration was controlled down to values below 1014 cm-3. Electrical properties, including the EL2° content, are discussed. The first results of GaAs VCz crystals grown without B2O3 encapsulant are given. A reduced boron concentration but enhanced carbon and vacancy concentrations have been observed.

4E-BP is a target of the GCN2–ATF4 pathway during <i>Drosophila</i> development and aging

Kang, Min-Ji,Vasudevan, Deepika,Kang, Kwonyoon,Kim, Kyunggon,Park, Jung-Eun,Zhang, Nan,Zeng, Xiaomei,Neubert, Thomas A.,Marr II, Michael T.,Ryoo, Hyung Don The Rockefeller University Press 2017 The Journal of cell biology Vol.216 No.1

<P>Reduced amino acid availability attenuates mRNA translation in cells and helps to extend lifespan in model organisms. The amino acid deprivation activated kinase GCN2 mediates this response in part by phosphorylating elF2 alpha. In addition, the cap-dependent translational inhibitor 4E-BP is transcriptionally induced to extend lifespan in Drosophila melanogaster, but through an unclear mechanism. Here, we show that GCN2 and its downstream transcription factor, ATF4, mediate 4E-BP induction, and GCN2 is required for lifespan extension in response to dietary restriction of amino acids. The 4E-BP intron contains ATF4-binding sites that not only respond to stress but also show inherent ATF4 activity during normal development. Analysis of the newly synthesized proteome through metabolic labeling combined with click chemistry shows that certain stress-responsive proteins are resistant to inhibition by 4E-BP, and gcn2 mutant flies have reduced levels of stress-responsive protein synthesis. These results indicate that GCN2 and ATF4 are important regulators of 4E-BP transcription during normal development and aging.</P>

Annealing Effects in Cast Commercial Aluminium Al–Mg–Zn–Cu(–Sc–Zr) Alloys

Martin Vlach,Jakub Čížek,Veronika Kodetová,Tomáš Kekule,František Lukáč,Miroslav Cieslar,Hana Kudrnová,Lucia Bajtošová,Michal Leibner,Petr Harcuba,Jaroslav Málek,Volkmar Neubert 대한금속·재료학회 2021 METALS AND MATERIALS International Vol.27 No.5

Precipitation reactions of the cast Al–3.4 at%Mg–2.7 at%Zn–0.80 at%Cu–0.10 at%Fe–0.05 at%Si alloy with and withoutaddition of 0.14 at%Sc and 0.06 at%Zr were characterized by electrical resistometry, electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction,thermal analysis, microhardness testing, and positron annihilation. The AlMgZnCuScZr alloy contains a grain boundaryT-phase (Mg32(Al,Cu,Zn)49) with a cubic and/or quasicrystalline structure. The AlMgZnCu alloy contains a mixture ofMgZn2-and the T-phase. Primary multilayer Al3(Sc,Zr) particles precipitated during casting and subsequent cooling. Theparticles have a layered Al3(Sc,Zr) + α-Al + Al3(Sc,Zr) structure, i.e. consist of regions enriched with both Sc and Zr. Smallatomic Mg,Zn(,Cu)-rich clusters coherent with the matrix were formed during the cooling of both alloys and/or in the courseof their storage at ambient temperature. Their dissolution enables precipitation of the transient η′- and/or stable η-phasesof the AlZnMgCu system in both investigated alloys. The effective activation energy for the dissolution of the clusters wascalculated as ~ 103 kJ/mol. Annealing of the AlMgZnCuScZr alloy above 300 °C leads to a formation of the secondaryAl3(Sc,Zr) particles which cause precipitation hardening and guarantee thermal stability of mechanical properties. Additionof Sc and Zr micro alloying elements resulted in a substantial grain refinement. The grain size remains unchanged upto isochronal annealing at 390 °C.

Exploring the Ecology of Deep-Sea Hydrothermal Vents in a Metacommunity Framework

Mullineaux, Lauren S.,Metaxas, Anna,Beaulieu, Stace E.,Bright, Monika,Gollner, Sabine,Grupe, Benjamin M.,Herrera, Santiago,Kellner, Julie B.,Levin, Lisa A.,Mitarai, Satoshi,Neubert, Michael G.,Thurnhe Frontiers Media SA 2018 Frontiers in marine science Vol.5 No.-

Resonances in QCD

Lutz, M.F.M.,Lange, J.S.,Pennington, M.,Bettoni, D.,Brambilla, N.,Crede, V.,Eidelman, S.,Gillitzer, A.,Gradl, W.,Lang, C.B.,Metag, V.,Nakano, T.,Nieves, J.,Neubert, S.,Oka, M.,Olsen, S.L.,Pappagallo, North Holland Pub. Co 2016 Nuclear physics. A Vol.948 No.-

<P>We report on the EMMI Rapid Reaction Task Force meeting 'Resonances in QCD', which took place at GSI October 12-14,2015. A group of 26 people met to discuss the physics of resonances in QCD. The aim of the meeting was defined by the following three key questions: What is needed to understand the physics of resonances in QCD? Where does QCD lead us to expect resonances with exotic quantum numbers? What experimental efforts are required to arrive at a coherent picture? For light mesons and baryons only those with up, down and strange quark content were considered. For heavy-light and heavy-heavy meson systems, those with charm quarks were the focus. This document summarizes the discussions by the participants, which in turn led to the coherent conclusions we present here. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</P>