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RISS 인기검색어
- 검색키워드
- 저자 : Mladjen Curic (검색결과 4 건)
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Vlado Spiridonov,Mladjen Curic 한국기상학회 2012 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.48 No.4
We examine the sensitivities of heterogeneous sulfate chemistry in a mid-latitude and tropical storm using a cloud resolving model. Both thermodynamic environments show unstable conditions favorable for development of intensive convection, with more CAPE in tropical compared to mid-latitude storm. Compared with the observed severe storms, modeled results show a relatively good agreement with the radar and surface chemical observations. Microphysical evaluation indicates that the accretion and autoconversion appear to be most important processes in such considered clouds. This sensitivity simulation is an upper bound for conversion of S (IV) to sulfate. The tropical convective storm produces for about 2.5 times more sulfate compared to mid-latitude storm and converts more SO2 to sulfate, increasing wet deposition of sulfur. The results for a midlatitude run indicate that aerosol nucleation and impact scavenging account for between 18.9% and 28.9% of the in-cloud sulfate ultimately deposited. As a result of greater rainfall efficiency, tropical storm shows about two times higher sub-cloud scavenging rate than mid-latitude storm. The oxidation of S (IV) to SO4−2 in cloud droplets and in precipitation is found to be dominant in both convective storms accounting almost with the same percentage contribution of 45.4% and 46.3% to sulfur deposition, respectively. In-cloud oxidation contribute a larger fraction of the total amount of sulfur deposited in tropical case (29.2%) when compared to the mid-latitude case (11.8), respectively. Neglecting aqueous-phase chemistry in ice-phase hydrometeors in both convective clouds led to overpredict deposition of about 40% to 33% relative to the base runs.
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Vlado Spiridonov,Mladjen Curic 한국기상학회 2015 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.51 No.1
Short-range prediction of precipitation is a critical input toflood prediction and hence the accuracy of flood warnings. Sincemost of the intensive processes come from convective clouds-theprimary aim is to forecast these small-scale atmospheric processes. One characteristic pattern of organized group of convective cloudsconsist of a line of deep convection resulted in the repeated passageof heavy-rain-producing convective cells over NW part of Macedoniaalong the line. This slowly moving convective system producedextreme local rainfall and hailfall in urban Skopje city. A 3-d cloudmodel is used to simulate the main storm characteristic (e.g.,structure, intensity, evolution) and the main physical processesresponsible for initiation of heavy rainfall and hailfall. The modelshowed a good performance in producing significantly more realisticand spatially accurate forecasts of convective rainfall event than ispossible with current operational system. The output results give agood initial input for developing appropriate tools such as floodingindices and potential risk mapping for interpreting and presenting thepredictions so that they enhance operational flood predictioncapabilities and warnings of severe weather risk of weather services. Convective scale model-even for a single case used has provedsignificant benefits in several aspects (initiation of convection, stormstructure and evolution and precipitation). The storm-scale model(grid spacing-1 km) is capable of producing significantly morerealistic and spatially accurate forecasts of convective rainfall eventsthan is possible with current operational systems based on modelwith grid spacing 15 km.
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Novel Thunderstorm Alert System (NOTHAS)
Vlado Spiridonov,Mladjen Curic,Nedim Sladic,Boro Jakimovski 한국기상학회 2021 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.57 No.3
A “ No vel Th understorm A lert S ystem” (NOTHAS) has been developed and extensively tested for forecast and warnings of mid-latitude and tropical convective events. The design of the system showed some potential advantages compared to earlier alert systems, mainly in reducing uncertainties in predictions by taking the given maximum hourly local-scale signal. It represents a dynamic tool which allows the use of the probability concept of multivariate distribution and integrating it into general function by taking all convective parameters. It utilizes the latest developed microphysical parameterization scheme using a scale and aerosol awareness convective scheme and the sharpest criteria for mid-latitude storms. NOTHAS shows consistency and some kind of flexibility in post-processing applications, regardless of different parameterizations used in the ensemble or deterministic forecasts. The scientific verification shows a high level of accuracy in all significant scores which indicates that severe weather outlooks produced by NOTHAS for several hours ahead are in good alignment with observed thunderstorm activity. This novel tool shows a good performance which has sufficient merit for further additional testing and system evaluation of different severe mid-latitude and tropical storms, tropical cyclones and other severe weather cases across regions.
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