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        关于中国“克强指数”文献研究方法论的评价

        주령커,MAOZHUQING,JIN HAIZHEN 부산대학교 중국연구소 2017 Journal of China Studies Vol.20 No.1

        In 2007, Li Keqiang, who was the secretary of the Liaoning’s provincial CCP committee then, presented a new method to evaluate economic growth. In 2010, The Economist summed it up to a new economic indicator and named it as Li Keqiang index. Since Li was to be the Premier of the State Council of China, Chinese economists began to study Li Keqiang index with two research directions. One of them is to prove correctness of Li Keqiang index; another is for putting forward policy recommendations. This study reviewed these literatures to make judgments on the methodologies of the papers. As this study’s conclusion, this study indicated that Li Keqiang index is an advanced and innovative indicator when we used it to evaluate the Chinese state of economy. Because either the necessary for local government performance, or the problem caused by repeated measures inevitably leads to China GDP is overrated. Li Keqing index using the data which are from three different departments gives the overall evaluation of the China economy situation. It can cover the shortage of GDP greatly. However, we do not suggest making economy police on basis of Li Keqiang index. Based on the present literature methodologies, most literature caused the regression analysis that used GDP as a dependent variable and variables involved in Li Keqiang Index as independent variables. It results in failure to cast off the influence of GDP. And these literatures checked the causality between variables with the Granger Causality Test method. However, this method ignored the limitation of Granger Causality Test method. That is the reason why we do not suggest making economy police on basis of Li Keqiang index, even we approve Lei Keqiang index is an advanced and innovative indicator when we used it to evaluate the Chinese state of economy.

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