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Stochastic prediction of ground motions in southern Korea
Jung-Goo Junn,Nam-Dae Jo,Chang-Eob Baag 한국지질과학협의회 2002 Geosciences Journal Vol.6 No.3
Strong ground motions in southern Korea were sim-ulated using the stochastic method based on the Brune-source andfinite fault models. Input parameters such as Brune stres drop(Ds) and attenuation parameter k were newly estimated using therecent seismic data of years 1999 and 2000 in southern Korea. Theaverage Brune stres drop and the attenuation parameter k wereestimated to be 65-bar and 0.00516+0.000147R, respectively, where Ris the hypocenter distance in km unit. These values are verified bysimulation of ground motions based on the stochastic method forthe 06/02/1999 Gyeongju earthquake. With use of the parameters,strong ground motions in southern Korea were simulated forearthquakes of moment magnitude 5 to 8 using the stochasticmethod. Both the Brune source model and the finite-fault sourcemodel give similar results of simulations for moderate-sized earth-quakes. However, the difference between the results from thesetwo models becomes larger for larger earthquake magnitudes orfor smaller hypocenter distances. Results for the finite-fault modelshow azimuthal variations of ground motions around the fault.