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Business Cycles in the Maghreb: Does Trade Matter?
( Jude Eggoh ),( Aram Belhadj ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2015 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.30 No.3
In this paper, we test the Frankel & Rose hypothesis of Optimum Currency Area for the Maghreb countries by demonstrating how the co-movements of outputs would respond to a trade integration process. In particular, by using panel analysis over the period 1980~2010, we evaluate if a monetary integration project across these countries is endogenous. Our main result suggests that while trade intensity may help to harmonize business cycles, the magnitude of this harmonization is lower for the Maghreb countries than for industrial countries. This result is robust even when we take into consideration many control variables including intra-industry trade, economic diversification, and financial integration. Therefore, we suggest that an acceleration of trade linkage as well as product diversification should take place prior to any move towards monetary union across the Maghreb countries.
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EDUCATION, HEALTH AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN AFRICAN COUNTRIES
JUDE EGGOH,HILAIRE HOUENINVO,GILLES-ARMAND SOSSOU 중앙대학교 경제연구소 2015 Journal of Economic Development Vol.40 No.1
This paper provides new empirical evidence concerning the relationship between human capital (measured by education and health related variables) and economic growth for a large sample of 49 African countries over the period from 1996 to 2010. Using traditional cross-section and dynamic panel techniques, we find that public expenditures on education and health have a negative impact on economic growth, whereas human capital stock indicators have a slight positive effect. Furthermore, our empirical investigations suggest that education and health spending are complementary. Then, public investment in education and health should be jointly increased and their efficiency in order to expect positive impact of human capital on growth in African countries.
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Inflation Effects on Finance-Growth Link: A Panel Smooth Threshold Approach
Jude Eggoh 한국국제경제학회 2012 International Economic Journal Vol.26 No.4
This paper proposes an original framework to examine whether the strength of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, widely documented in the recent empirical literature, varies with the inflation rate. Using a Panel Smooth Threshold Regression for 71 developed and developing countries over the period 1960–2004, we find a non-linear link between financial development and economic growth: three equilibriums are identified with inflation rate. Then, there is an inflation threshold, for which finance ceases to increase economic growth. Our results suggest that for an inflation rate higher than 20%, economic growth is not, or is negatively, affected by financial development, whereas the impact of finance on growth is positive and significant for an inflation level below 10%.
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Financial Development and Growth : A Panel Smooth Regression Approach
EGGOH C. JUDE 경제연구소 2010 Journal of Economic Development Vol.35 No.1
In this paper, we propose an original framework to determine the relative influence of series of variables on the linkage between financial development and economic growth. Based on panel threshold regression models, we establish country-specific and time-specific finance-growth coefficients for 71 countries, both developed and developing, from 1960 to 2004. The results show that inflation rate, ratio of government consumption, degree of openness to trade and financial development affect the non-linearity between financial development and growth, and have the greatest influence on the relationship of two variables.
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