국제무역에 함유된 지구온난화 가스 배출의 국제연관구조와 경제적 유인정책의 효과

정현식 한국환경경제학회 한국자원경제학회 2004 자원·환경경제연구 Vol.13 No.4

교토 메커니즘에 따른 국제적 배출권 거래 제도의 지구온난화 가스 저감 효과는 부속서 I국가들의 무역을 통한 탄소 유출(carbon leakage) 정도에 따라 크게 달라지게 될 것이다. 그리고 무역을 통한 탄소 유출의 정도는 각국의 경상 수지, 배출 수지, 배출 교역 조건 등에 의해 간접적으로 표출될 것이다. 이 논문에서는 부속서 I국가들과 비부속서 I국가들 간의 탄소 유출의 정도를 분석하기 위해 각국의 경상 수지와 무역에 함유된 CO₂출량, 배출 수지, 배출 교역 조건 등을 국제 투입-산출 통계 등을 이용하여 계산하였다. 외국의 기존 연구에서는 일부 선진국들을 중심으로 배출 수지가 추정된 적은 있으나, 한국을 포함한 세계 전체의 무역을 통한 배출 수지에 대한 분석이 이루어진 적은 없었다. 이 논문은 세계 주요 배출국의 하나로서 한국을 포함한 세계 각 국·지역 간의 경상수지와 무역에 함유된 배출 수지, 배출 교역 조건 등에 대한 비교·분석을 국내에서는 처음으로 시도한 논문이다. 화석 연료의 대부분을 수입에 의존하는 한국으로서 GHGs 특히 CO₂의 배출 저감은 기후변화협약상의 저감 의무와 별개로 그 자체로서 매우 중요하다. 뿐만 아니라 한국도 교토 메커니즘을 활용할 수 있는 부속서 I국가로서의 지위를 조만간 부여 받지 않을 수 없을 것으로 보아 한국과 교역 대상국 간의 배출 수지에 대한 분석 결과는 한국이 국제적 배출권 거래 제도 등을 이용하는데 유익한 자료가 될 것이다. Emission Trading (ET) among Annex I countries as expounded in Kyoto mechanism can be an effective mean to control Greenhouse Gases(GHGs), particularly CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels. For the international ET to be an effective tool to reduce the global emissions, however, it presupposes that there are no carbon leakage, i.e. Annex I emitters will purchase emission permits if emitting above caps, rather than importing emission-intensive goods from non-Annex I countries thus inducing the foreigners to emit instead. The extent to which a country leaks carbon through trade can be revealed by its bilateral balance of current accounts and related Balance of Emissions Embodied in Trade (BEET) supplemented by Emission Terms of Trade (ETT). Earlier studies on BEET and ETT relied on few selected countries in a partial equilibrium context, Korea being treated as insignificant though she is not a minor emitter. This paper is an attempt to examine BEET in the global CGE framework and to compare its structural difference across countries, with a special emphasis on South Korea.

韓國의 輸入自由化와 輸入現況

鄭賢湜 成均館大學校 韓國産業硏究所 1981 韓國經濟 Vol.9 No.-

産業 公害의 要因分析

鄭賢湜 成均館大學校 韓國産業硏究所 1993 韓國經濟 Vol.20 No.1

We used a simple version of the Leontief-augmented pollution model to analyze industrial pollutions of the 65 Korean industries for the period 1980~88. Problems on the existence of non-negative solutions are not the issue for our augmented pollution model since we are assuming that outputs of pollution from pollution-abatement sectors are zero. We also assume in this paper that the tolerated pollution levels are always less than the pollution generated by the industries, so that the existence problems are avoided. In fact we are only concerned with the total pollution emission, which are the sum of pollution abated by the pollution-control sectors and unabated pollution emitted to the final sector. We also assume away pollution emitted by final demand sector. In fact, by focusing on the total pollution emitted, we do not need to distinguish the abated pollution from the tolerated pollution levels. In this simplified model, we are concerned with factors contributing to the increase in pollution emission between 1980 and 1988. We are able to analyze total emission levels of 9 different pollutauts for 65 the industries. The factors responsible for the increase in pollution during the period were dichotomized into two : growth factors and structural factors. The latters were further divided into five categories of changes in structures : domestic final demand, export, import, input techniques, and export production techniques. For the period under consideration, about 60% of the total pollution increase was attributed to the growth factors and the remaining 40% to the structural factors. Among structural factors, domestic final demand and export were important contributors to the increased pollution in that order, while change in production techniques of the export sector contributed to the decrease in pollution.

상수도관의 노후도에 대한 환경영향인자의 상관성 분석

정원식,이현동,김이태,유명진 대한상하수도학회 2003 상하수도학회지 Vol.17 No.2

This study is performed to evaluate the correlation of environmental factors for drinking water pipe deterioration using statistical analysis such as multiple regression, cluster analysis, discriminant analysis, and the adequacy and dependability of grouping factors used to deterioration prediction model. Results of this study are presented that high correlation related to pipe deterioration is showed not laying year of pipe but characteristic of surrounding area and analysis of chemical components. Therefore, major influence factors of pipe deterioration for types of cast iron pipe are product quality of pipe, environmental factors using pipe deterioration evaluation model is classified to 4 types such as group related to pipe body and to hydraulic & water quality, and to characteristics of surrounding area, and to trouble & discontent of customer. And the very high adequacy of group classification is represented that the applied grouping items in this study are agree to previous studies.

經濟倫理와 制度改革

鄭賢湜 成均館大學校 韓國産業硏究所 1993 韓國經濟 Vol.19 No.2

韓國의 外債增加要因分析, 1974∼1985. : 國際收支基調의 點檢

鄭賢湜 成均館大學校 韓國産業硏究所 1988 韓國經濟 Vol.16 No.-

資本蓄積과 國際貸借의 變化에 關한 模型分析

鄭賢湜 成均館大學校 韓國産業硏究所 1976 韓國經濟 Vol.4 No.-

A dynamic model was presented for a less developed country to analyze the stages of the international indebtedness and payments in the process of its capital formation. Dynamic properties of the model were expressed in terms of a system of differential equations and qualitative solution of the system employing phase diagrams was used to describe the dynamic process. It was shown in the model that the LDC was capital importing country and remained net debtor at the steady-state equilibrium under certain conditions. The hypothesis on the stages of indebtedness supported by such a model as Fischer-and-Frenkel's was not confirmed in our model under different conditions. An implication was that the usual "stages" of the international indebtedness was one of many kinds, which might not be applicable to some LDC's. The model suggested several policy prescriptions forcapital for mation in LDC which are similar to one suggested by Mahalanobis. It showed a possibility that interest payments by LDC on foreign debts might exceed its trade surplus thus making continuous foreign capital inflows inevitable in order to pay interest, an anxiety often expressed by capital importing LDC's.

피압수가 존재하는 연약점토지반 내에 연직배수재의 관입깊이에 따라 압밀거동에 미치는 영향

정성교,진현식,백승훈 동아대학교 건설기술연구소 1999 硏究報告 Vol.22 No.2

In the Yangsan area developed for housing complex the soft clay deposited as about 20 to 40 meters in thickness and there was the Artesian pressure of about 20kPa under the clay stratum. To investigate the consolidation behaviour due to partially or fully penetrating vertical drains in the clay layer, a finite element analysis was carried out in this study. As a result of analysis, it was shown that the consolidation rate and the final settlement for the case of fully penetrating vertical drains were faster and less than of partially penetration, respectively.

국내 중소도시 상수도관의 파손특성 및 영향인자 분석에 관한 연구

이현동,정원식,안윤주 대한상하수도학회 2002 상하수도학회지 Vol.16 No.4

This paper was performed to analysis the major factors and characteristics of pipe breaks for urban drinking water pipelines in Korea. The results from the characteristic analysis of pipe breaks by natural cause (77.6%) were showed represented to be highly related to the factors such as deterioration, water hammer, and external factors. And break rate with pipe types were showed PE 0.2056, CIP 0.1521, DCIP 0.06 No./Km/year, respectively. Break rate were showed represented to be weakly related to the pipe diameters, seasons, and laying year. Especially, break rate of winter season were not represented to highly the this study more than other cities such as Newyork, Philadelphia, Seoul, Taegu, Busan.

구급일지를 통한 병원 전 환잔 분류 및 처치의 적절성 평가 연구

민순식,김재광,이근,박철완,양혁준,류일,현성열,이훈규,정환모,김윤 대한응급의학회 2000 대한응급의학회지 Vol.11 No.4

Background: Recently, patients' demands for emergency medicine are increasing, and most of prehospital medical care, including basic life support, cardiopulmonary resuscitation and triage, are provided by paramedics or emergency medical technicians. Evaluation of the adequacy of prehospital management and triage has become important for improving the quality and the effectiveness of the emergency medical system. Methods: The 202 patients who were transferred by ambulance with paramedics, nurses, or emergency medical technicians to the Emergency Department in Gil Medical Center from July 1, 1999, to September 31, 1999, were enrolled. This study was conducted prospectively by using the emergency physician,s log and newly devised protocols recorded by paramedics or nurses. Results: 1) Male to female ratio was 1: 0.8, and the peak age of the patients were the 4th(18.8%) and 6th decade(15.3%). 2) Of the 202 patients, 84 patients were transferred for trauma and 118 for medical problems. The mean transfer time was 6±1.73 minutes. 3) The validities of prehospital triage and decisions using the trauma severity measure and the disease severity measure, were 33.3% in trauma patients and 57.6% in medical patients.4) The results for the adequacy rate in prehospital management analyzed by using the rate of necessity of treatment. performance of treatment, and adequate treatment were as follows: oxygen supply.38.1/41.6/93.8 ; wound dressing. 19.3/71.8/92.9 ; immobilization of the cervical spine, 15.8/56.3/92.9 ; application of a spinal board. 12.9/42.3/72.7 ; application of a splint, 9.9/50.0/60.0 ; manual maintenance of an airway. 9.9/55.0/63.6 ; and CPR, 4.5/66.7/0. 5) Kind of ALS(Advanced Life Support) were not conducted(peripheral IV, EKG. intubation, medical administration. defibrillation, pacing). The rates of necessity of treatment were as follows: peripheral IV, 40.6%; ECG monitoring, 23.3% ; endotracheal intubation, 8.9% ; medical administration, 8.9% ; defibrillation. 3.5%; and pacing. 1.5% Conclusion: The adequacy of prehospital triage and decisions using trauma and disease severity measures was relatively low. To improve the adequacy of BLS(Basic Life Support) and to increase the performance of ALS(Advanced Life Support), we must create challenges to develop new protocols and to supplement new equipment.