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- 검색키워드
- 저자 : Gopal R. Patil (검색결과 2 건)
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Estimation of Freight Demand at Mumbai Port using Regression and Time Series Models
Gopal R. Patil,Prasanta K. Sahu 대한토목학회 2016 KSCE JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING Vol.20 No.5
Forecasting future freight demand at a seaport is important for its planning and development. India has 13 major ports which handle 75% of the total seaport freight. Among the 13 major ports, Mumbai Port, ranked at number three in the country for the year 2013-14, handles about 11% of the total freight at major seaports in India. The focus of this paper is on developing inbound and outbound demand forecasting models for Mumbai Port. The models are developed using additive regression and time series techniques. In regression analysis economic indicators, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Crude Oil Production (CRLP) are found to be significant. The multivariate models performed better than the univariate models. The validation of time-series models resulted in error of less than 5%. Both multivariate regression and time-series models are used to forecast freight demand for the years 2014- 15 through 2017-18. The regression models are producing more optimistic forecasts than the time series models. The elasticity analysis suggested that Mumbai’s inbound freight will be growing almost with India’s GDP growth rate, the outbound freight, however, will experience slower growth than that of inbound.
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Spatial Temporal Analysis of Freight Flow through Indian Major Seaport System
Prasanta K. Sahu,Abhishek PADHI,Gopal R. Patil,Gangadhar MAHESH,Ashoke K. SARKAR 한국해운물류학회 2019 The Asian journal of shipping and Logistics Vol.35 No.1
This paper analyzed the space time interactions among the freight flows through major Indian ports. Freight flow data at regular intervals in the form of spatial time series were collected for the twelve major ports located along the east and west coast of India. The system of freight flows was modeled through interactions both in time and space dimensions as a multivariate stochastic process. Effect of the neighbor port freight on a subject port was analyzed to understand the degree of dependency among the competing/non-competing ports. Demand elasticity analysis suggested that ports are more sensitive to changes in their own demand over time than the corresponding spatial changes indicating bulk of the demand dependency on hinterland economic activity. Interestingly, only two ports are found to be competing with each other as they share common hinterland. In general, it can be inferred that the interport relationship within Indian major port system is complimentary or co-operative. Proposed models can be used for assessing the impact of freight flow changes from one port to the nearest neighboring port. Study findings will help port authorities and policy makers for holistic development of port system by making right investments in required locations to promote balanced development. It has also implications towards formulating policies on port development considering Government of India's preferred mode of choice for infrastructure development is PPP, and policy formulation for this mode of development is required to address competition concerns considering the high sunk cost associated with ports development.
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