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- 검색키워드
- 저자 : Fabian C. Hadiprono (검색결과 1 건)
- 무료
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유위성,Fabian C. Hadiprono 한국건설관리학회 2007 한국건설관리학회 논문집 Vol.8 No.5
This paper introduces a tool for predicting potential cost overrun during project execution and for quantifying the uncertainty on the expected project cost, which is occasionally changed by the unknown effects resulted from projects complications and unforeseen environments. The model proposed in this study is useful in diagnosing cost performance as a project progresses and in monitoring the changes of the uncertainty as indicators for a warning signal. This model is intended for the use by project managers who forecast the change of the uncertainty and its magnitude. The paper presents a mathematical approach for modifying the costs of incomplete work packages and project cost, and quantifying reduced uncertainties at a consistent confidence level as actual cost information of an ongoing project is obtained. Furthermore, this approach addresses the effects of actual informed data of completed work packages on the re-estimates of incomplete work packages and describes the impacts on the variation of the uncertainty for the expected project cost incorporating Multivariate Probabilistic Analysis (MPA) and Bayes Theorem. For the illustration purpose, the introduced model has employed an example construction project. The results are analyzed to demonstrate the use of the model and illustrate its capabilities.
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