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Periá,ñ,ez, R.,Bezhenar, R.,Brovchenko, I.,Duffa, C.,Iosjpe, M.,Jung, K.T.,Kobayashi, T.,Lamego, F.,Maderich, V.,Min, B.I.,Nies, H.,Osvath, I.,Outola, I.,Psaltaki, M.,Suh, K.S.,de With, G. Elsevier 2016 Science of the Total Environment Vol.569 No.-
<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>State-of-the art dispersion models were applied to simulate <SUP>137</SUP>Cs dispersion from Chernobyl nuclear power plant disaster fallout in the Baltic Sea and from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant releases in the Pacific Ocean after the 2011 tsunami. Models were of different nature, from box to full three-dimensional models, and included water/sediment interactions. Agreement between models was very good in the Baltic. In the case of Fukushima, results from models could be considered to be in acceptable agreement only after a model harmonization process consisting of using exactly the same forcing (water circulation and parameters) in all models. It was found that the dynamics of the considered system (magnitude and variability of currents) was essential in obtaining a good agreement between models. The difficulties in developing operative models for decision-making support in these dynamic environments were highlighted. Three stages which should be considered after an emergency, each of them requiring specific modelling approaches, have been defined. They are the emergency, the post-emergency and the long-term phases.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> Models applied to simulate <SUP>137</SUP>Cs marine dispersion after nuclear accidents. </LI> <LI> Not good agreement initially found in highly dynamic environments. </LI> <LI> Difficulties in developing models for decision making after emergencies highlighted. </LI> </UL> </P> <P><B>Graphical abstract</B></P> <P>[DISPLAY OMISSION]</P>
Vives i Batlle, J.,Beresford, N.A.,Beaugelin-Seiller, K.,Bezhenar, R.,Brown, J.,Cheng, J.-J.,Ć,ujić,, M.,Dragović,, S.,Duffa, C.,Fié,vet, B.,Hosseini, A.,Jung, K.T.,Kamboj, S.,Keu Elsevier 2016 JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RADIOACTIVITY Vol.153 No.-
<P><B>Abstract</B></P> <P>We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms.</P> <P>Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (<I>T</I> <SUB> <I>B1/2</I> </SUB>) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of <SUP>90</SUP>Sr, <SUP>131</SUP>I and <SUP>137</SUP>Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and which uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases.</P> <P>Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the <I>T</I> <SUB> <I>B1/2</I> </SUB> becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them.</P> <P>The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters.</P> <P><B>Highlights</B></P> <P> <UL> <LI> Comparison of 7 dynamic models for radionuclide transfer in marine biota with the ERICA Tool. </LI> <LI> <SUP>90</SUP>Sr, <SUP>131</SUP>I, <SUP>137</SUP>Cs in fish, crustaceans, algae and molluscs in a Fukushima scenario. </LI> <LI> Consistent pattern of delayed uptake and slow turnover by the dynamic models. </LI> <LI> Differences between ERICA and dynamic models increase with biological half-life. </LI> <LI> Significant variability between models linked to parameter and methodology differences. </LI> </UL> </P>