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        Allocating risk capital for a brownfields redevelopment project under hydrogeological and financial uncertainty

        Yu, S.,Unger, A.J.A.,Parker, B.,Kim, T. Academic Press 2012 Journal of environmental management Vol.100 No.-

        In this study, we defined risk capital as the contingency fee or insurance premium that a brownfields redeveloper needs to set aside from the sale of each house in case they need to repurchase it at a later date because the indoor air has been detrimentally affected by subsurface contamination. The likelihood that indoor air concentrations will exceed a regulatory level subject to subsurface heterogeneity and source zone location uncertainty is simulated by a physics-based hydrogeological model using Monte Carlo realizations, yielding the probability of failure. The cost of failure is the future value of the house indexed to the stochastic US National Housing index. The risk capital is essentially the probability of failure times the cost of failure with a surcharge to compensate the developer against hydrogeological and financial uncertainty, with the surcharge acting as safety loading reflecting the developers' level of risk aversion. We review five methodologies taken from the actuarial and financial literature to price the risk capital for a highly stylized brownfield redevelopment project, with each method specifically adapted to accommodate our notion of the probability of failure. The objective of this paper is to develop an actuarially consistent approach for combining the hydrogeological and financial uncertainty into a contingency fee that the brownfields developer should reserve (i.e. the risk capital) in order to hedge their risk exposure during the project. Results indicate that the price of the risk capital is much more sensitive to hydrogeological rather than financial uncertainty. We use the Capital Asset Pricing Model to estimate the risk-adjusted discount rate to depreciate all costs to present value for the brownfield redevelopment project. A key outcome of this work is that the presentation of our risk capital valuation methodology is sufficiently generalized for application to a wide variety of engineering projects.

      • SCIESCOPUSKCI등재

        FATIGUE SIMULATION OF POWER TRAIN COMPONENTS DURING THE DESIGN PROCESS

        W. STEINER,G. STEINWENDER,B. UNGER 한국자동차공학회 2001 International journal of automotive technology Vol.2 No.1

        The lifetime of power train components can be improved dramatically by finding crack initiation points with suitable software tools and optimization of the critical areas. With increasing capacities of computers the prediction of the lifetime for components by numerical methods gets more and more important. This paper discusses some applications of the outstanding fatigue simulation program FEMFAT supporting the assessment of uniaxially and multiaxially loaded components (as well as welding seams and spot joints). The theory applied in FEMFAT differs in some aspects from classical approaches like the nominal stress concept or the local one and can be characterized by the term "influence parameter method" The specimen S/N-curve is locally modified by different influence parameters as stressgradient to take into account notch effects. mean-stress influence which is quantified by means of a Haigh-diagram. surface roughness and treatments. temperature. technological size etc. It is possible to consider plastic deformations resulting in mean-stress rearrangements. The dynamic loading of power train components is very often multiaxial. e.g. the stress state at each time is not proportional to one single stress state. Hence. the directions of the principal axes vary with time. We will present the way how such complex load situations can be handled with FEMFAT by the examples of a crank case and a gear box.<br/>

      • SCIESCOPUSKCI등재

        FATIGUE SIMULATION OF POWER TRAIN COMPONENTS DURING THE DESIGN PROCESS

        Steiner, W.,Steinwender, G.,Unger, B. The Korean Society of Automotive Engineers 2001 International journal of automotive technology Vol.2 No.1

        The lifetime of power train components can be improved dramatically by finding crack initiation points with suitable software tools and optimization of the critical areas. With increasing capacities of computers the prediction of the lifetime for components by numerical methods gets more and more important. This paper discusses some applications of the outstanding fatigue simulation program FEMFAT supporting the assessment of uniaxially and multiaxially loaded components (as well as welding seams and spot joints). The theory applied in FEMFAT differs in some aspects from classical approaches like the nominal stress concept or the local one and can be characterized by the term "influence parameter method". The specimen S/N-curve is locally modified by different influence parameters as stress-gradient to take into account notch effects, mean-stress influence which is quantified by means of a Haigh-diagram, surface roughness and treatments, temperature, technological size, etc. It is possible to consider plastic deformations resulting in mean-stress rearrangements. The dynamic loading of power train components is very often multiaxial, e.g. the stress state at each time is not proportional to one single stress state. Hence, the directions of the principal axes vary with time. We will present the way how such complex load situations can be handled with FEMFAT by the examples of a crank case and a gear box.

      • Smoking Trajectories among Koreans in Seoul and California: Exemplifying a Common Error in Age Parameterization

        Allem, Jon-Patrick,Ayers, John W.,Unger, Jennifer B.,Irvin, Veronica L.,Hofstetter, C. Richard,Hovell, Melbourne F. Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention 2012 Asian Pacific journal of cancer prevention Vol.13 No.5

        Immigration to a nation with a stronger anti-smoking environment has been hypothesized to make smoking less common. However, little is known about how environments influence risk of smoking across the lifecourse. Research suggested a linear decline in smoking over the lifecourse but these associations, in fact, might not be linear. This study assessed the possible nonlinear associations between age and smoking and examined how these associations differed by environment through comparing Koreans in Seoul, South Korea and Korean Americans in California, United States. Data were drawn from population based telephone surveys of Korean adults in Seoul (N=500) and California (N=2,830) from 2001-2002. Locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (lowess) was used to approximate the association between age and smoking with multivariable spline logistic regressions, including adjustment for confounds used to draw population inferences. Smoking differed across the lifecourse between Korean and Korean American men. The association between age and smoking peaked around 35 years among Korean and Korean American men. From 18 to 35 the probability of smoking was 57% higher (95%CI, 40 to 71) among Korean men versus 8% (95%CI, 3 to 19) higher among Korean American men. A similar difference in age after 35, from 40 to 57 years of age, was associated with a 2% (95%CI, 0 to 10) and 20% (95%CI, 16 to 25) lower probability of smoking among Korean and Korean American men. A nonlinear pattern was also observed among Korean American women. Social role transitions provide plausible explanations for the decline in smoking after 35. Investigators should be mindful of nonlinearities in age when attempting to understand tobacco use.

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