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        Predicting the Onset of Housing Affordability Problem

        Yip Chee Yin,Au Yong Hui Nee,Abdelhak Senadjki,Oon Kam Hoe People&Global Business Association 2018 Global Business and Finance Review Vol.23 No.3

        This paper aims to use threshold values of housing price index, economic growth and mortgage rate as guidance to predict the onset of housing affordability problem by recursive forecasting method using graphical and autoregressive distributed lag model. These threshold values are taken from the findings of our previous study entitled “Housing Affordability Dynamics”, featured in the International Journal of Applied Business and Economic Research (November 2017). We define housing affordability index and its threshold value, 130, below which, there is housing affordability problem. Next, we obtained the threshold values respectively for housing price index which must be less than 162, economic growth more than 5.32% and mortgage rate less than 5.57% for housing affordability to prevail. Applying the research in the Malaysian context, the results show that Malaysia is still in the midst of housing affordability problem and through the current study, we come to the conclusion that we should use the autoregressive distributed lag model every quarter so that if housing affordability index is found to be between 117 and 143, legislation should be introduced and implemented to ensure that housing affordability does not fall into unaffordability zone. The implication of the research result is that with prior knowledge of the imminent onset of housing affordability, policymakers could initiate timely intervention measures to stabilize housing affordability and thus minimize the damaging effect brought about by housing unaffordability if not deflect the crisis from occurring altogether.

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