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Jeong, H.,Adamowski, J. Elsevier Scientific Pub. Co 2016 Agricultural water management Vol.171 No.-
<P>The purpose of this study was to develop and verify a socio-hydrological model using system dynamics (SD), thereby combining a deterministic conceptual hydrological model and a social model incorporating population, land use, economics, technology, and policy dimensions. Applied to a central South Korean watershed where wastewater is reused for paddy irrigation, the present model was verified in terms of structure and behavior. Structural validity was confirmed when expected simulation sensitivity and consistency criteria were met during behavior sensitivity and extreme conditions tests. The model's behavioral validity in predicting hydrological processes including evapotranspiration, stream flow, and groundwater level, was also confirmed as the calibrated model performance during the validation period showed good agreement with those of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, validated for the study watershed, as well as observed groundwater levels. The values of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (E-NS), percent bias (PBIAS), and R-2 which compared model results with those of the SWAT model were 0.77,3.0%, and 0.79, respectively, for the evapotranspiration, and 0.69, 1.4%, and 0.75, respectively, for the stream flow, while the generated and observed groundwater levels exhibited a linear relationship with an R-2 value of 0.70. The validated model indicated that urbanization within the study watershed could lead to increased stream flow and greater wastewater reuse. Instream flow regulation led to a decrease in stream flow tied to a lower base flow, and a decrease in social benefits associated with a decline in wastewater reuse. An assessment was made of the SD-based socio-hydrological model's usefulness when acting as an element of an integrated framework in providing a better understanding of small-scale socio-hydrological systems' interactions and the underlying causes of general trends and problems. SD-based socio-hydrological modeling was deemed a suitable decision-support framework for designing water resource policies contributing to successful integrated water resources management practice. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</P>
Deo, R. C.,Byun, H. R.,Adamowski, J. F.,Begum, K. Springer Science + Business Media 2017 Theoretical and applied climatology Vol.128 No.1
<P>Drought indices (DIs) that quantify drought events by their onset, termination, and subsequent properties such as the severity, duration, and peak intensity are practical stratagems for monitoring and evaluating the impacts of drought. In this study, the effective drought index (EDI) calculated over daily timescales was utilized to quantify short-term (dry spells) and ongoing drought events using drought monitoring data in Australia. EDI was an intensive DI that considered daily water accumulation with a weighting function applied to daily rainfall data with the passage of time. A statistical analysis of the distribution of water deficit period relative to the base period was performed where a run-sum method was adopted to identify drought onset for any day (i) with EDI (i) < 0 (rainfall below normal). Drought properties were enumerated in terms of (1) severity (AEDI ae<inverted exclamation> accumulated sum of EDIi < 0), (2) duration (DS ae<inverted exclamation> cumulative number of days with EDIi < 0), (3) peak intensity (EDImin ae<inverted exclamation> minimum EDI of a drought event), (4) annual drought severity (YAEDI ae<inverted exclamation> yearly accumulated negative EDI), and (5) accumulated severity of ongoing drought using event-accumulated EDI (EAEDI). The analysis of EDI signal enabled the detection and quantification of a number of drought events in Australia: Federation Drought (1897-1903), 1911-1916 Drought, 1925-1929 Drought, World War II Drought (1937-1945), and Millennium Drought (2002-2010). In comparison with the other droughts, Millennium Drought was exemplified as an unprecedented dry period especially in Victoria (EAEDI ae -4243, DS = 1946 days, EDImin = -4.05, and YAEDI = -4903). For the weather station tested in Northern Territory, the worst drought was recorded during 1925-1929 period. The results justified the suitability of effective drought index as a useful scientific tool for monitoring of drought progression, onset and termination, and ranking of drought based on severity, duration, and peak intensity, which allows an assessment of accumulated stress caused by short- and long-term (protracted) dry events.</P>
정한석 ( Hanseok Jeong ),박승우 ( Seungwoo Park ),아다모우스키잔 ( Jan Adamowski ) 한국농공학회 2013 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2013 No.-
농업수자원의 이용을 포함한 다양한 사회 및 공학적 문제는 하나의 일관된 해결책으로 대응하기에는 매우 복잡한 요소들이 연관되어있다. 또한, 기존의 문제를 인식하고 대안을 제시하는 방법이 유효한 효과를 보이고 있는지 의문시되고 있다. 따라서 복잡하게 얽혀있는 사회생태시스템의 요소시스템 간의 인과관계를 보다 정확하게 인식하고, 평가하는 새로운 방법이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 농업수자원의 문제인식부터 대안의 제시를 포함하는 전체적인 개념적인 틀인 지속가능성 평가를 위한 프레임워크를 제안하고자 한다. 제안된 프레임워크는 생태시스템과 사회시스템 등으로 이루어져 있는 농업수자원 시스템을 체계적으로 분석하기 위한 시스템다이내믹스 접근방법과 시스템사고를 통해 분석된 현상을 평가하기 위한 생태모방 접근방법을 포함한다.