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김경덕(Kim Kyung-Duk),허준행(Heo Jun-Haeng) 대한토목학회 2007 대한토목학회논문집 B Vol.27 No.1B
본 연구에서는 우리나라 연최대치 강우자료를 대표하는 4개 지역을 설정하여 지수홍수법의 수행능력을 분석하였다. 이를 위하여 지역 및 지점 빈도해석, 자료크기, 지점간 종속성, 이질성, 적용 분포형 등 추정량의 정확도에 영향을 줄 수 있는 사항에 대하여 모의실험을 실시하였다. 연구결과 약간의 이질성, 지점간 종속성, 분포형 선정의 불확실성이 존재하더라도 지역 빈도해석이 지점 빈도해석보다 정확도가 높은 것으로 나타났다. 이질성은 지역 전체에 대해서는 아니지만 지점들에 대해서는 펀의를 증가시키는 것으로 나타났다. 지점간 종속성은 추정치의 변동성을 증가시키지만 편의에는 거의 영향을 주지 않으며, 그 크기가 작은 경우에는 지역 빈도해석에 있어서 별로 중요하지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 큰 재현기간에서 오차 발생은 이질성보다는 분포형 선정의 불확실성이 훨씬 중요하게 작용하는 것으로 나타났다. In this study, we investigate the performance of the index flood method for 4 regions whose specifications are representative of annual maximum rainfall data in Korea. For this purpose, the Monte Carlo simulation was performed to investigate the influence on the accuracy of quantile estimates depending on the at-site and regional frequency analyses, sample size, inter-site dependence, heterogeneity, and applied frequency distributions. As the results, index flood method is more accurate than at-site frequency analysis in regions with moderate amounts of heterogeneity, inter-site dependence, and mis-specification of the applied frequency distributions. Heterogeneity increases the relative bias of estimates for the case of at-site analysis not typical case of regional one as a whole. Inter-site dependence increases the variability of estimates but has little effect on the relative bias. And small amount of inter-site dependence may be unimportant in regional frequency analysis. As the nonexceedance probability is increased, the advantage of index flood method over at-site frequency analysis is getting increased. Also, it is founded that the mis-specification of the frequency distribution is more important than heterogeneity as a source of error for large return period.
김경덕(Kyung-Duk Kim),오내원(Nae-Won Oh),김창호(Chang-Ho Kim) 한국농촌경제연구원 2013 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-
In the traditional rural society, common pool resources (CPRs) have played an important role on economic activities and living conditions of rural residents and sustainable development of regional society. But political philosophers and economists have understood that if citizens respond only to private incentives, public goods would be under-provided and public resources over-utilized. It was called the tragedy of the commons. To escape from the tragedy of the commons, and enhance the efficient utilization of CPRs, inquiries of the traditional cooperative system and investigations of its institutional and mechanism design are important. Its research also improves understandings of the governance relationship between residents, local governments and the central government. Major findings and policy recommendations could be summarized as follows; the common utilization of the CPRs has played an important role on economies of scale of production and risk sharing between residents. Obstacles of effective utilization of the CPRs, however, might be (1) less investment on the CPRs owing to aging of residents and lack of funds, (2) evaporativity of the CPRs by switching to other purposes, and (3) the need for reorganization of traditional institutions and mechanism of the CPRs because of heterogeneity of members utilizing the CPRs. Policy recommendations in the short run could be (1) subsidies for investment and regulations to reduce over utilization of the CPRs, (2) imposing environment evaluations in switching of CPRs to other purpose, (3) design on the optimal rent rate of public owned resources, and (4) differentiating policy measures for mutual assistance clubs of agricultural water utilities depending on the performance and pattern. The long term policy recommendation could be focused on (1) enhancing the long term investment with extending rent period, (2) organizing local cooperative governance systems and (3) enhancing self reliance and cooperation by differentiated subsidies measures. In theoretical methodology, we investigated conditions of the evolutionary stability and the repeated-reciprocality. Especially, in the coordinate game, we examined conditions and environments to induce Pareto superior solutions.
지역경제모형(KREI-REMO) 개선과 의사결정 지원시스템과의 연계
한석호(Suk-Ho Han),김경덕(Kyung-Duk Kim),이정민(Jeong-Min Lee) 한국농촌경제연구원 2011 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 Vol.- No.-
The main purposes of this study are to build a decision-making support system of local rural self-government by using a revised model of KREI-REMO 2010 and to link the REMO with Rural Development Support System (KREI-RDSS). As the local self-government’s authority has expanded, they need a policy simulation model on rational decision-making to achieve their goals. To match their needs, KREI developed KREI-REMO in 2010. However, KREI-REMO 2010 was the first-stage project of the local self-government’s decision-making supporting system, and there were some limitations such as lack of important data and the difficulty of subdividing districts. In KREI-REMO 2011, we first divided the local district into 6 sectors rather than 3 as in KREI-REMO 2010. Each sector is then classified by population, employment, industrial production and local government finance, and each one of them is estimated by panel analysis. We predicted the 10-year baseline of each local area with the model. By doing so, KREI-REMO can perform economic and policy simulation under various conditions. Especially in the prediction of population at the local area level, we developed migration functions based on various migration theories including the gravity theory through a cohort model. We also tried to link KREI-REMO with Rural Development Support System (KREI-RDSS) to meet the purpose of this study, which is to build a decision-making support system of local rural self-government. Lastly, we illustrated the practical use of a user interface system as well.