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- 저자 : 최성천 ( Seong-cheon Choi ) (검색결과 2 건)
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마늘의 생육자료와 기상자료 기반으로 다층모형을 이용한 수확기 구중 추정
최성천(Seong Cheon Choi),김준기(Jun Ki Kim),서홍석(Hong Seok Seo) 한국원예학회 2021 원예과학기술지 Vol.39 No.4
마늘은 노지 작물로 기상에 따라 작황 변동성이 크기 때문에 생산량과 가격의 불안정성이 크다. 안정된 수급관리를 위하여 정확한 생산량 예측이 선제적으로 이루어져야 한다. 본 연구는 구 비대 초기의 마늘 생육과 기상자료를 기반으로 구중 추정모형을 개발함으로써 생산량 예측의 정확도 개선을 도모하였다. 분석은 개체단위인 4월 하순 지상부 생육자료와 필지단위인 4월 하순에서 수확기까지 기상 추정자료로 구성된 위계적자료 특성을 반영하여 2-수준 다층모형을 활용하였다. 분석결과 4월 하순 엽초경, 초장의 생육이 좋을수록 생구 무게가 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 기상은 강수량, 강우일수는 구중에 감소효과를, 수확직전 강수량, 일조시간, 증발산량, 최적기온일수는 증가효과가 나타나 마늘 최종 구중에 유의한 요인으로 확인되었다. There is a large fluctuation in the production and price of garlic (Allium sativum L.) because it is grown mainly in the open field and is vulnerable to weather conditions. Accurate forecasting is needed to manage production. The purpose of this study was to improve the accuracy of production forecasting by developing a model that estimates the weight of garlic bulbs at harvest based on growth and meteorological data. For this study, a two-level multilevel model was used to reflect the hierarchical data characteristics consisting of individual unit data that represented the above-ground growth conditions at the end of April and the lot unit data that represented the meteorological conditions from the end of April to harvest time. It was determined that the weight of the garlic bulb increased as the growth of the sheath diameter and the plant height increased at the end of April. As for the meteorological factors, it was estimated that precipitation had negative effects on the garlic bulb weight, while the pre-harvest precipitation, duration of sunshine, evapotranspiration, and the optimal temperature days had positive effects on the weight.
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김재휘 ( Jaehwi Kim ),최성천 ( Seong-cheon Choi ),김준기 ( Junki Kim ),서홍석 ( Hong-seok Seo ) 한국농림기상학회 2021 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.23 No.1
Onions are a representative produce that requires supply-demand control measures due to large fluctuations in production and price by growing season. Accurate forecasts of crop production can improve the effectiveness of such measures. However, it is challenging to obtain accurate estimates of crop productivity for onions because they are mainly grown on the open fields. The objective of this study was to perform the empirical analysis of the relationship between factors for crop growth and meteorological conditions, which can support the development of models to predict crop growth and production. The growth survey data were collected from open fields. The survey data included the weight of above ground organs as well as that of the bulbs. The estimates of meteorological data were also compiled for the given fields. Correlation analysis between these factors was performed. The random forest was also used to compare the importance of the meteorological factors by the growth stage. Our results indicated that insolation in early March had a positive effect on the growth of the above-ground. There was a negative correlation between precipitation and the growth of the above-ground at the end of March although it has been suggested that drought can deter the growth of onion. The negative effects of precipitation and daylight hours on the growth of the above-ground and under-ground were significant during the harvest period. These meteorological factors identified by growth stage can be used to develop models for onion growth and production forecast.
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