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장몽현,김한수 한국주거학회 2019 한국주거학회 논문집 Vol.30 No.2
The real assets such as a real estate account for more than 70% of the average assets per household in Korea, and apartment transactions are the most common among all housing transactions. In this way, the apartment can have a representative in Korea’s housing market. Meanwhile, the housing market is influenced by various factors such as interest rate, economic changes and government policies. One of the main factors influencing the flow of the real estate price is the news articles of the press. In this study, we analyzed the news articles, which are atypical data, using text mining to analyze whether the frequency of the words frequently mentioned in the news articles of the press related to apartment price flow has a significant effect on apartment prices. As a result of the analysis, the upturn, parcel out, sale, Gangnam keyword were exposed as the top in the news articles. Based on this, it can be seen that some words with high frequency of exposure in news articles have a statistically significant relation with apartment price flow through granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition of vector autoregression (VAR) model. 우리나라 가구당 평균자산에서 부동산과 같은 실물자산이 차지하는 비중은 약 70% 이상으로 높고, 전체 주택거래 중 아파트 거래가 대부분이다. 이처럼 아파트는 우리나라 주택시장에서 대표성을 지니고 있다. 한편, 주택시장은 여러 가지 요인에 따라 가격에 영향을 받고 있다. 부동산 가격의 흐름을 좌우하는 주 요인 중 하나가 언론의 뉴스기사라고 볼 수 있다. 이에 본 연구는 아파트 가격흐름과 관련하여 언론의 뉴스기사에 자주 언급되는 단어의 노출빈도가 아파트가격과 유의미한 영향이 있는지를 시계열적으로 분석하기 위해 텍스트 마이닝을 활용하여 비정형 데이터인 뉴스기사를 분석하였다. 분석결과, 상승(세),주택, 분양, 매매, 강남 키워드 등이 상위권으로 도출되었고, 이를 바탕으로 아파트가격과 그랜저 인과성분석, 벡터자기회귀(VAR) 모형을 통해 뉴스기사 속 노출빈도가 높은 일부 단어가 아파트 가격흐름과 통계적으로 유의미한 관계가 있음을 확인할 수 있었다.
장몽현(Jang, Mong-Hyun),김한수(Kim, Han-Soo) 한국주거학회 2018 한국주거학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.30 No.1
The purpose of the study is to analyze the changes of real estate prices and to analyze the flow of real estate market by comparing cities, regions within the same city. The data for the analysis used the Korea Housing Price Index published by Korea Appraisal Board from 2004 to 2017. As a result of analysis, first, there was a difference in housing price fluctuations between cities. Second, there are regional differences even within the same city. This suggests that there is a difference in price flow due to differences in environments such as districts and images even within the same urban areas.
공간계량모형을 활용한 아파트가격 영향요인 분석 연구 - 대구시 수성구를 중심으로 -
장몽현(Jang, Mong-Hyun),김한수(Kim, Han-Soo) 한국주거학회 2020 한국주거학회 논문집 Vol.31 No.1
The apartments occupy about 75% of the total housing transactions in a year, which is the representative living space for the majority of citizens. The housing market can be divided into sale, lease (jeonse) and montly rent, and the consumer must make a choice to decide which house to live in for sale or rent. For consumers, housing prices are an important factor in determining the type of housing. Houses, including apartments, are fixed in location and are affected by social and economic factors and the surrounding environment. In addition, the real estate market is sensitive to the government’s policies and economic conditions, and is divided into several sub-markets depending on its location. It appears difficult to standardize due to the price formation individuality different conditions depending on the region and time specific. In this regard, this study analyzed the factors that influence price formation in Suseong-gu, Daegu city through multiple regression analysis. As a result, factors such as apartment age, high school distance, school preference, brands, and heating methods were derived. As a result of analyzing regional differences on factors affecting apartment prices by using three geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, the influence of apartment complexes also existed in the same region.
대도시 서민 주거지 환경실태와 주민의식 - 대구시 일부 지역을 대상으로 -
김한수,장몽현,Kim, Han-Su,Jang, Mong-Hyun 한국주거학회 2011 한국주거학회 논문집 Vol.22 No.4
The primary purpose of this study is to suggest policy directions for redevelopment project based on analysis of residents' perception on needs and reasons of redevelopment, and development type in old settlements in Daegu Metropolitan City. The main findings are follows. First, the study area is short of public space such as road and parks, occupied by old single detached houses with small parcel. The living environment of the area consist with many 20 years or older two story houses is very poor. Second, most of residents (58.5%) consider economic factors or cheaper rent more serious than other factors such as convenience, amenity, and education facilities. Third, residents want new housing construction even though explanatory power of trash collection, bad smells, privacy is very high in residents' satisfaction. Fourth, most of residents (88.8%) agree redevelopment and show strong preference to high-density apartment construction through demolish-and-development type of redevelopment approach. They are willing to agree the parcellevel redevelopment if governments provides economic supports and temporary settlements. This finding suggests very important policy implications for current government efforts to improve living environment.