품질기능전개 및 유전 알고리즘을 통합한 금속커튼월의 품질-비용 최적화 시스템 개발

임태경,이동은,Lim, Tae-Kyung,Lee, Dong-Eun 대한건축학회 2011 대한건축학회논문집 Vol.27 No.12

This paper presents a tool called Quality-Cost optimization system, which integrates Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Quality Function Deployment (QFD), for tradeoff between quality and cost of the unitized metal curtain-wall unit. A construction owner as the external customer pursues to maximize the quality of the curtain-wall unit. However, the contractor as the internal customer pursues to minimize the cost involved in designing, manufacturing and installing the curtain-wall unit. It is crucial for project manager to find the tradeoff point which satisfies the conflicting interests pursued by the both parties. The system would be beneficial to establish a quality plan satisfying the both parties. Survey questionnaires were administered to the external customer who have an experience of project installing curtain-wall, the architects who are the independent assessor to obtain, and the internal customer who were involved in curtain-wall design and installation. The Customer Requirements (CRs) and their importance weights, the relationship between Customer Requirements and Technical Attributes (TAs) consisting of a curtain-wall unit, and the cost ratios of each components consisting curtain-wall unit are obtained from the three groups mentioned previously. The data obtained from the surveys were used as the QFD input data to compute the Owner Satisfaction (OS) and Contractor Satisfaction(CS). Multi-objective optimization method using GA is applied to optimize resource allocation under limited budget when multi-objectives, OS and CS, are pursued at the same time. The deterministic multi-objective optimization method using GA and QFD is extended to stochastic model to better deal with the uncertainties of QFD input data and the variability of QFD output data. A case study demonstrates the system and verifies the system conformance.

확률.통계적 건설 프로젝트 영업이윤율 추정 시스템 개발

임태경,이동은,Lim, Tae-Kyung,Lee, Dong-Eun 대한건축학회 2011 대한건축학회논문집 Vol.27 No.11

This paper introduces a system called Stochastic Markup Estimation System (SME) for estimating optimum markup for a project. The system was designed and implemented to better represent the real world system involved in construction bidding. The findings obtained from the analysis of existing assumptions used in the previous quantitative markup estimation methods were incorporated to improve the accuracy and predictability of the SME. The existing methods have four categories of assumption as follows; (1) The number of competitors and name of the competitors are known, (2) A typical competitor, who is fictitious, is assumed for easy computation, (3) the ratio of bid price against cost estimate (B/C) is assumed to follow normal distribution, (4) the deterministic output obtained from the probabilistic equation of existing models is assumed to be acceptable. However, these assumptions compromise the accuracy of prediction. In practice, the bidding patterns of the bidders are randomized in competitive bidding. To complement the lack of accuracy resulted from these assumptions, bidding project was randomly selected from the pool of bidding database in the simulation experiment. The probability to win the bid in the competitive bidding was computed using the profile of the competitors appeared in the selected bidding project record. The expected profit and probability to win the bid was calculated by selecting a bidding record randomly in an iteration of the simulation experiment under the assumption that the bidding pattern retained in historical bidding DB manifest revival. The existing computation, which is handled by means of deterministic procedure, were converted into stochastic model using simulation modeling and analysis technique as follows; (1) estimating the probability distribution functions of competitors' B/C which were obtained from historical bidding DB, (2) analyzing the sensitivity against the increment of markup using normal distribution and actual probability distribution estimated by distribution fitting, (3) estimating the maximum expected profit and optimum markup range. In the case study, the best fitted probability distribution function was estimated using the historical bidding DB retaining the competitors' bidding behavior so that the reliability was improved by estimating the output obtained from simulation experiment.

요소작업 기반 티어공법 철골조립 시뮬레이션 모델

임태경,손창백,이동은,Lim, Tae-Kyung,Son, Chang-Baek,Lee, Dong-Eun 대한건축학회 2011 대한건축학회논문집 Vol.27 No.10

This paper presents a simulation model that facilitates to analyze and estimate both time and cost of the steel erection operation making use of tier construction method. By conducting motion and time study, resource processes of the operation and their tasks of the processes are defined. These atomic tasks are used as a building block to implement a simulation model that reflects the real world steel erection operation assembling the steel material in the job site. Task based operation simulation model deals with local variables or delay factors affecting productivity and improves the reusability of existing production models. Therefore, the proposed approach allows the model to adjust more easily to construction method change. The proposed steel erection model was verified by comparing with the Construction Standard Production Unit system (CSPU) and daily work report.

준실험설계에 의한 코로나19 지원정책의 고용효과 분석 : 소상공인.자영업자를 위한 직접지원금을 중심으로

임태경(Lim, Taekyoung) 한국지방정부학회 2020 지방정부연구 Vol.24 No.3

본 논문은 코로나19 사태로 인한 소상공인･자영업자를 위한 직접지원금의 집행이 숙박･음식업계의 취업률 증가의 동인으로 영향되었는지를 실증적으로 분석하였다. 2020년 1월부터 2020년 6월까지 총 6개월의 단기간 패널자료를 토대로 준실험 설계의 일종인 이중차분법(Difference in Difference, DID)을 사용해 소상공인･자영업자를 위한 직접지원금의 집행이전･이후와 소상공인･자영업자를 위한 직접지원금이 지원된 지역과 그렇지 않은 지역간의 집단 간 비교분석을 통해 대면산업의 대표 분야인 숙박 및 음식업계의 취업률에 대한 효과성을 측정하였다. 분석결과 코로나19로 인한 소상공인 및 자영업자의 위기극복을 위한 직접지원금의 집행이 시작된 3월 이후의 시점과 숙박음식업계의 취업률과는 실증적으로 인과관계가 존재함을 확인할 수 있었다. 하지만 직접지원금의 집행이 시작된 3월 이후부터 5월 이후의 효과는 시간이 지남에 따라 점점 줄어드는 경향을 확인할 수 있었다. 이러한 분석결과는 소상공인 및 자영업자들의 위기극복을 돕기 위한 지자체들의 정책 개입이 코로나19 사태로 인한 고용악화를 부분적으로 완화하고 있다는 실증적인 증거로 판단될 수 있겠다. 최근 코로나19에 관련된 3차 추경이 편성되면서 지원금 투입이 어떤 효과를 유발했는지 불분명하고 기존에 관련된 실증연구가 없는 실정에서 본 연구는 코로나19 대응 정책의 효과성이 존재하는지의 여부를 단기적인 측면에서 실증적으로 분석했다는 점에서 연구의 의의를 찾을 수 있을 것이다. 뿐만 아니라 최근 정책분석 분야에서 광범위하게 활용되고 있는 이중차분(DID) 분석기법을 활용하여 정책지원의 인과적 효과를 분석했다는 점에서 학술적 측면에서도 연구의 의의를 찾을 수 있을 것이다. This paper assesses the quantitative impact of government interventions on job growth in the small businesses in South Korea related to the COVID-19. This study focused particularly on the case study of ‘Direct Subsidies’ supported from local government in order to recover labor market in small business sector and its impact on job growth. Specifically, this research demonstrates empirically a research question: How does the ‘Direct Subsidies related to the COVID-19’ planned from local government affect the labor mark to recover from unemployment and recession at the local level in South Korea? With using a panel dataset with the 17 metropolitan cities of South Korea during the period from 2020 January to 2020 June, the statistical modeling framework most closely aligned with the postulated causal process, and supportable with available data, was a difference-in difference(DID) methodology. The results of DID model are showing that the ‘Direct Subsidies related to the COVID-19’ has had statistically significant positive effects after its supported on the job growth in the small businesses. Otherwise, findings from this study provide empirical evidences that both effects of post-and-treatment did significantly impact negatively to job growth in the small businesses. This results have been reflected the economic downturn generated from COVID-19 outbreak or pandemic situation. The importance of this research stems from recognition that it is importance to evaluate the effectiveness of the ‘Direct Subsidies related to the COVID-19 in terms of stimulating job growth in the viewpoint of short-term. These finding can be informative for governments in responding to future COVID-19 outbreaks.

혁신도시 지역인재채용률에 미치는 영향요인의 분석 및 정책함의

임태경 ( Taekyoung Lim ),박재희 ( Jaehee Park ) 한국지방행정연구원 2020 地方行政硏究 Vol.34 No.2

본 연구는 혁신도시 지역인재채용률에 미치는 영향요인을 분석하였으며, 지역혁신체계를 강화 할 주체로서 언급되고 있는 혁신도시 거버넌스 협의회와 지역의 인적·교육적 환경이 지역인재채용률에 미치는 영향력을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 이를 위해 2014년부터 2018년까지 총 5년간의 패널자료 구축을 통해 총 50개의 표본을 집단별로 구분하여 혁신도시 지역인재채용률에 미치는 영향 요인을 지역의 인적자원, 지역의 교육 인프라 환경, 혁신도시 조성을 위한 법·제도적 환경, 공공기관의 특성, 정치·경제·인구학적 환경으로 구성하여 다지역·다기간에 걸쳐 나타난 지역인재 채용률의 차이를 분석하였다. 분석결과 혁신도시 거버넌스 협의체의 구성 및 장기적인 측면에서의 지속적인 운영이 혁신도시 지역인재 채용률에 긍정적인 영향을 줄 수 있는 주요한 요인이라는 점을 확인할 수 있었다. 하지만, 지역에 위치한 국립대학교의 비율과 지역대학을 졸업한 인적자원 규모의 크기는 지역인재 채용비율에 긍정적으로 영향을 미칠 것이라는 예상과는 달리 부정적인 영향을 미치고 있는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 이는 지역에 위치한 대학교 수와 지역에 위치한 대학을 졸업한 학생의 수가 많더라도 공공기관이 원하는 역량을 가진 인재가 많이 배출된다는 의미로 파악될 수 없으며 지역에 위치한 대학 수가 많더라도 지역인재 채용제도를 통해 채용된 인재의 비율은 저조할 수 있다는 것을 실증적으로 확인 할 수 있었다. 본 연구는 혁신도시 시즌2 정책에서 강조되고 있는 지역인재 채용확대가 성공적으로 수행되기 위해 긍정적으로 영향을 미칠 수 있는 요인에 대해 실증적으로 탐색했다는 점에서 기존 연구와의 차별성을 갖으며, 지역인재채용제도가 실효성있게 작동하는데 지역 거버넌스 주체(지자체, 대학, 이전공공기관 등)의 역할이 중요함을 실증적으로 제시했다는 점에서 연구의 의의를 찾을 수 있을 것이다. The purpose of this research was to find the determinants of foster local talents selected through the recruiting system in public institutes that relocated to provincial area as part of a balanced regional development project. This study focused particularly on the impacts of the different circumstances of local educations and regional human resources as well as local governance system on the employment’s ratio selected through the system of local talent recruitments. Specifically, this research conducted an empirical study with using a panel dataset with 10 innovative cities of South Korea. The analysis was based upon panel fixed-effect model with the period from 2014 to 2018. Our analysis offers evidence that the longer duration of local governance is positively related to increase the employment’s ratio selected through the system of local talent recruitments. Also, the results of empirical models are showing that the circumstances which are located more national universities have been negative influential to be hired more local talents selected through the recruiting system in public institutes. Indeed, the analytical evidence shows clearly that all else held equal, the size of graduate numbers in regional community colleges may have negative impacts to stimulate local talents selected through the recruiting system in the public institutes located within the innovative cities. Our research provides empirical confirmation that active cooperation among regional stakeholders through local governance can promote for improving these recruiting system.

확률ㆍ통계적 건설 프로젝트 영업이윤율 추정 시스템 개발

임태경(Lim, Tae-Kyung),이동은(Lee, Dong-Eun) 대한건축학회 2011 大韓建築學會論文集 : 構造系 Vol.27 No.11

This paper introduces a system called Stochastic Markup Estimation System (SME) for estimating optimum markup for a project. The system was designed and implemented to better represent the real world system involved in construction bidding. The findings obtained from the analysis of existing assumptions used in the previous quantitative markup estimation methods were incorporated to improve the accuracy and predictability of the SME. The existing methods have four categories of assumption as follows; (1) The number of competitors and name of the competitors are known, (2) A typical competitor, who is fictitious, is assumed for easy computation, (3) the ratio of bid price against cost estimate (B/C) is assumed to follow normal distribution, (4) the deterministic output obtained from the probabilistic equation of existing models is assumed to be acceptable. However, these assumptions compromise the accuracy of prediction. In practice, the bidding patterns of the bidders are randomized in competitive bidding. To complement the lack of accuracy resulted from these assumptions, bidding project was randomly selected from the pool of bidding database in the simulation experiment. The probability to win the bid in the competitive bidding was computed using the profile of the competitors appeared in the selected bidding project record. The expected profit and probability to win the bid was calculated by selecting a bidding record randomly in an iteration of the simulation experiment under the assumption that the bidding pattern retained in historical bidding DB manifest revival. The existing computation, which is handled by means of deterministic procedure, were converted into stochastic model using simulation modeling and analysis technique as follows; (1) estimating the probability distribution functions of competitors’ B/C which were obtained from historical bidding DB, (2) analyzing the sensitivity against the increment of markup using normal distribution and actual probability distribution estimated by distribution fitting, (3) estimating the maximum expected profit and optimum markup range. In the case study, the best fitted probability distribution function was estimated using the historical bidding DB retaining the competitors’ bidding behavior so that the reliability was improved by estimating the output obtained from simulation experiment.

재정분권의 강화가 우리나라 지역경제성장에 미치는 영향 분석: 내생성을 고려한 도구변수 이용을 중심으로

임태경 ( Lim Taekyoung ) 한국지방행정연구원 2019 地方行政硏究 Vol.33 No.2

본 논문은 재정분권이 지역경제성장에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 2007년부터 2017년까지 총 11년을 분석기간으로 하고 2012년에 지정된 세종특별자치시를 제외한 16개 광역자치단체의 패널데이터를 사용하여 재정분권화가 지역경제성장에 미치는 영향을 분석했다. 미관측 이질성에 의한 내생성을 통제하는 방법으로서 패널고정효과 모형을 활용하여 분석하고자 했으며, 지방정부의 재정분권화의 정도는 지방세 부담률과 중앙정부로부터의 이전재원 증감률, 전년도 지방정부지출수준에 영향 받을 수 있는 내생성을 가지는 것으로 추정되므로 도구변수와 함께 패널회귀분석식을 이용한 2단계 추정법(2SLS: Two Stage Least Square)을 사용하였다. 연구의 주요 결과를 요약해 보면 설명변수의 내생성을 가정하는 모형의 결과에서는 재정분권의 정도는 지역경제성장에 통계적으로 유의하지 않은 결과를 보였지만 외생성을 가정한 모형에서는 재정분권의 정도가 지역경제성장에 유의한 정(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 지금까지의 선행연구의 연구결과와는 사뭇 대조되는 연구결과로서, Oates(1972)의 가설과는 반대되는 실증결과라 할 수 있겠다. 본 논문에서는 재정분권의 내생성의 통제했는지의 유무에 따라 지역경제성장에 미치는 효과가 다르게 나타남을 실증적으로 확인하여 지방의 시각에서 바라본 바람직한 재정분권 제도 확립의 방향성에 대한 정책적 시사점을 제시하였다. The purpose of present research was to evaluate the effectiveness of fiscal decentralization on regional economic development in Korea. With using a panel dataset for the 16 regions of Korea excluding Sejong City during the period from 2007 to 2017, the statistical modeling framework most closely aligned with the postulated causal process, and supportable with available data, was a two-stage least squares regression model with instrumental variables. In theory, use of the three instruments provided a means of solving the potential problem of the endogeneity of fiscal decentralization with regional economic development. This research discovered that the potential drivers behind fiscal decentralization were the percentage of total amount supported from Federal outlays to specific regional government and the local tax revenue sharing, as well as previous expenditure of local governments. The empirical result from this study has shown that the fiscal decentralization with assuming of endogeneity issues did not have any relationship with developing of regional economic. This result is not also consistent with the hypothesis formulated earlier by Oates(1972). Lastly, policy implications were discussed based on different circumstances of local government in Korea.

전통문양을 활용한 패턴 디자인교육 프로그램 개발에 관한 연구

임태경(Lim Tae-Kyung),김관배(Kim Kwan-Bae) 한국디자인학회 2005 한국디자인학회 학술발표대회 논문집 Vol.2005 No.10

요소작업 기반 티어공법 철골조립 시뮬레이션 모델

임태경(Lim, Tae-Kyung),손창백(Son, Chang-Baek),이동은(Lee, Dong-Eun) 대한건축학회 2011 大韓建築學會論文集 : 構造系 Vol.27 No.10

This paper presents a simulation model that facilitates to analyze and estimate both time and cost of the steel erection operation making use of tier construction method. By conducting motion and time study, resource processes of the operation and their tasks of the processes are defined. These atomic tasks are used as a building block to implement a simulation model that reflects the real world steel erection operation assembling the steel material in the job site. Task based operation simulation model deals with local variables or delay factors affecting productivity and improves the reusability of existing production models. Therefore, the proposed approach allows the model to adjust more easily to construction method change. The proposed steel erection model was verified by comparing with the Construction Standard Production Unit system (CSPU) and daily work report.

건설 노무자의 아차사고 측정 및 평가 방법론

임태경(Lim, Tae-Kyung),이상수(Lee, Sang-Soo),이동은(Lee, Dong-Eun) 대한건축학회 2014 大韓建築學會論文集 : 構造系 Vol.30 No.1

Near-misses which foretell danger signs for potential accidents provide valuable information for safety management on a job-site. Even thought a number of near-misses are caused by construction workers on a job-site everyday, it is difficult to use near-misses information to identify worker inherent risks and establish safety measures due to the absence of a clear definition and an evaluation method for the near-miss. This study aims to present a systematic methodology which effectively measures and analyzes near-misses occurred by a specific worker and provides a personalized safety guidance. This research was conducted as follows: firstly, the term of a near-miss was redefined by the literature survey and previous studies relative to quantifying the accident risk in the view of worker’s behavior were investigated; secondly, a standard motion taxonomy for near-misses was developed to facilitate monitoring the type and time of occurrence of the near-miss accident and near-miss weights along to the standard behaviors were obtained by survey analysis and then a mathematical model to calculate the near-misses index (NMI) was developed; finally, a case study was performed to evaluate the practicality of the proposed assessment model for near-misses of construction worker.