과원규모화사업 효과 및 사업수요에 대한 연구

임청룡 ( Lim Cheong-ryong ),박영준 ( Park Young-jun ) 한국농촌계획학회 2023 농촌계획 Vol.29 No.1

In this study, the effect of orchard expansion, structural improvement, and potential demand of the orchard scale-up project implemented since 2004 to strengthen the competitiveness of orchard farmers was examined. The results of the analysis are summarized as follows. First, looking at the effect of scale-up by checking the standard income data of the Rural Development Administration, it was possible to confirm the effect of scale-up in that the income per unit area increases as the scale increases. Second, through the scale-up project, the effect of structural improvement in transferring the orchards of the aged farm households to the younger farm households was confirmed to be 13 years old on average in the case of a sale business and 16 years old in the case of a lease business. Third, it was found that income increased at a statistically significant level after participating in the orchard scale-up project for major fruit crops such as apples, pears, and peaches. Fourth, it was found that age and cultivated area had a statistical effect on the probability of participating in the orchard scale-up project for farmers who did not participate in the project. The potential business demand using the estimated results was found to be between 25,203 and 37,089.

농가유형별 쌀 소득보전직불제의 소득효과 분석

임청룡 ( Cheong-ryong Lim ),정호중 ( Ho-jung Jeong ),임성수 ( Sung-soo Lim ),정원호 ( Won-ho Chung ) 한국농업정책학회 2018 농업경영정책연구 Vol.45 No.3

This study analyzes how the direct rice income compensation payment program affects on farm income for various types of farm household with two different data sources, a farm household survey database and a database on agricultural business entities. We analyze farm income effects by reviewing farm income increase and stabilization, income equality, business stability, and economic safety net for farm households. The results show that the program contributed significantly to increasing and stabilizing farm income, income equality, and business stability. In particular, variable direct payments have a bigger effect on the groups of expert farmers and preliminary expert farmers, while fixed direct payments on senior and retired farmers. Without direct payments, 16~28% of ordinary farmers would face serious management risk and about 3% of senior and retired farmers could not cover the minimum cost of living or household consumption expenditure. Therefore, it is needed to maintain fixed direct payments for senior and ordinary farmers in order to support their farm management and income stabilization.

스마트 팜 에너지 소비량 예측 모델 개발에 관한 연구

임청룡(Cheong-Ryong Lim),박영준(Young-Jun Park),이철성(Chul-Sung Lee) 한국산학기술학회 2022 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.23 No.11

이 연구에서는 스마트 팜 경영비용 중 많은 부분을 차지하고 있는 에너지 소비량에 대한 예측 모델을 구축하고자 하였으며, 분석 결과를 다음과 같이 요약할 수 있다. 첫째, 예측력이 우수한 모델을 구축하기 위해 전통적인 시계열 분석모형인 VAR모델과, 딥러닝 모델인 RNN, LSTM, GRU모델을 추정하였다. 둘째, 4가지 모델 예측력에 대한 비교결과 RMSE 통계량을 활용한 경우와 실측값과 예측값 평균 차이를 비교한 예측력 전반에 있어서 모두 GRU모델이 가장 우수한 것으로 나타났으며, 다음으로 LSTM, RNN, VAR 순으로 나타났다. 이러한 분석 결과로부터 다음과 같은 시사점을 도출할 수 있다. 첫째, 분석 목적이 에너지 소비에 영향을 미치는 요인 확인일 경우 모수적 통계기법이 적합할 수 있으며, 예측 정확도를 목적으로 할 경우 딥러닝 모델 활용이 보다 적합할 수 있다. 둘째, 딥러닝 모델별 예측력에도 차이고 있으므로, 다양한 모델 적합 이후 최적 모델 선택하는 것이 보다 효과적일 수 있다. 우수한 딥러닝 모델 구축을 위해서는 적절한 하이퍼 파라미터에 대한 설정이 필요하다. In this study, a predictive model for energy consumption, which accounts for a large portion of smart farm management costs, was established. The analysis can be summarized as follows. First, the vector autoregressive (VAR) model which is a traditional time series analysis model, and the recurrent neural network (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), and gated recurrent unit (GRU) models which are deep learning models, were used to build a model with excellent predictive power. Second, a comparison of the four models showed their predictive power to be in the order of GRU>LSTM>RNN>VAR. The following implications can be drawn from the results of the analysis: First, if prediction accuracy is not a factor that affects energy consumption, it is appropriate to use a deep learning model. Second, since the predictive power of each deep learning model is different, it would be effective to select an optimal model after fitting the data to various models. To build a better deep learning model, it is necessary to set the appropriate hyperparameters.

농경지 휴경면적 예측력에 대한 모형 간 비교 연구

임청룡(Cheong-Ryong Lim),이항아(Hang-Ah Lee),최돈우(Don-Woo Choi) 한국산학기술학회 2021 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.22 No.8

이 연구에서는 지역단위 농지 휴경면적 예측모형을 개발하기 위해 토양DB, 농업총조사 원자료, 기상DB 등으로 구성된 농업빅데이터를 활용하였다. 분석모형을 구축함에 있어서 휴경면적에 영향을 미치는 변수들을 활용하여 다수의 휴경면적 예측모형을 구축 및 추정하였으며 분석과정은 총 3단계로 구분할 수 있다. 1단계는 통계분석 분야에서 광범위하게 쓰이고 있는 기초적인 기본모형에 해당하는 회귀분석, 의사결정나무, 인공신경망, 서포트벡터머신 등 기법을 활용하였고, 2단계로는 예측분야에 있어서 1단계보다 이론적으로 개선된 머신러닝기법 중 앙상블모형인 배깅, 부스팅, 랜덤포레스트 등 모형들을 활용하였으며, 3단계에서는 자체적으로 모형 예측력을 개선할 수 있는 딥러닝기법 중 심층신경망을 활용하였다. 휴경면적에 대한 여러 예측모형 추정결과를 보다 객관적으로 비교하기 위해 분석으로부터 도출된 평균오차제곱을 기준으로 모형 간 예측력을 비교하여 최적 모형을 선택하였다. 비교 결과 2단계 모형들이 1단계 모형들에 비해 예측력이 보다 우수하고, 3단계 모형이 2단계 모형에 비해 예측력이 더 좋은 것을 확인하였다. 이러한 분석결과는 휴경면적 객관적 예측 및 휴경면적 효율적 활용에 있어서 참고자료로 활용될 것으로 여겨진다. In this study, agricultural big data composed of soil databases, agricultural census raw data, and meteorological databases were utilized in constructing a prediction model for estimating regional idle farmland areas. In constructing the analysis model, several models for predicting the idle area were constructed and estimated by utilizing the variables affecting this area. The analysis process can be divided into three stages. In the first stage, basic models such as regression analysis, decision trees, artificial neural networks, and support vector machines were used. In the second stage, ensemble models such as bagging, boosting, and the random forest model were used, and in the third stage, a deep neural network was used based on deep learning techniques. The optimal model was selected by comparing the predictive power between models based on the mean square error derived using the estimation results of several models. It was confirmed that the second stage models had better predictive power than the first stage models and that the third stage model had better predictive power than the second stage models. This analysis is expected to be used as a reference in the objective prediction of idle farmland areas and the efficient use of this area.

관수로 농업용수 공급에 대한 시설재배 농가의 비용 지불의사 연구

임청룡,박성경,정원호,Lim, Cheong-Ryong,Park, Seong-gyeong,Chung, Won-ho 한국농촌계획학회 2018 농촌계획 Vol.24 No.2

In this study, we estimate the greenhouse farmers' willingness to pay of agricultural water supply through pipeline. First, in the questionnaire design, orthogonal design and block design were used to enhance the ease of survey. Second, the theoretical model was constructed through the setting of the probability utility function, and the parameters were estimated by using the conditional logit model. Third, all of the estimation coefficients were statistically significant at the 1% significance level. The results of analysis are summarized as follows. First, the probability of selection is increased when maintenance is carried out by Korea Rural Community Corporation or local government. Second, the probability of selection is increased when agricultural water supply through pipeline is higher than the current level. Third, if the Korea Rural Community Corporation carries out maintenance management, the marginal willingness to pay is 44 won per ton. And if the local government carries out maintenance management, the marginal willingness to pay is 25 won per ton. Fourth, according to the quality level of agricultural water supply, the marginal willingness to pay is 101 won, 114 won and 120 won per ton, respectively. This study can be used as a basic data on the cost setting for agricultural water supply through pipeline.

사과 품종별 재배면적 변동 요인 분석

최돈우,김동춘,임청룡,Choi, Don-Woo,Kim, Dong-Choon,Lim, Cheong-Ryong 한국농촌계획학회 2018 농촌계획 Vol.24 No.3

This study analyzed factors influencing cultivation area of two major apple cultivars, Fuji and Hongro, applying the panel SUR model to survey data from farms. Characteristics of farms, distribution factors, and weather factors were the independent variables of the model. The analysis indicated that characteristics of farms, distribution factors, and weather factors influence the cultivation area of Hongro and Fuji. The independent variables were also found to have different levels of influence on increase and decrease of the cultivated area. Helping predict changes in cultivation area of Hongro and Fuji, the research results can be used as primary data to support efforts to prevent price fluctuations due to changes in supply.

약용작물의 경영성과와 효율성 분석

최돈우(Don-Woo Choi),임청룡(Cheong-Ryong Lim) 한국산학기술학회 2017 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.18 No.6

본 연구는 수입산 한약재 수입으로 경영상황이 극한으로 몰린 약용작물 재배농가의 경영개선 방안을 마련하기 위해 구릿대와 시호재배 농가를 중심으로 경영성과 및 경영 효율성에 대한 분석을 실시하였다. 구릿대 재배농가와 시호 재배농가로부터 수집된 자료에 대한 분석결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 구릿대 재배농가의 10a당 총수입은 평균 1,363천원으로 나타났으며, 소득은 500천원으로 소득율은 36.7%로 분석되었다. 둘째, 시호 재배농가의 10a당 총수입은 평균 1,705천원으로 나타났으며, 소득은 873천원으로 소득율은 44.6%였다. 셋째, 구릿대 재배농가의 기술효율성은 0.790, 순수기술효율성은 0.856, 규모효율성은 0.924로 분석되었다. 넷째, 시호 재배농가의 기술효율성은 0.670, 순수기술효율성은 0.794, 규모효율성은 0.844로 분석되었다. 구릿대와 시호 재배농가모두 기술효율성에 있어서 상대적인 차이가 존재하였으며, 이러한 차이는 규모적 측면보다 순수 기술적 측면이 더 큰 영향을 미치는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 따라서 경영규모 확대를 통한 효율성 제고보다는 농가들의 기술수준에 적합한 영농교육을 실시하는 것이 효율성을 높이는데 보다 효과적일 것으로 여겨진다. This study was conducted to provide improvement measures for Korea’s medicinal crop farmers whose business has been severely damaged by imported medicinal herbs. To accomplish this, the performance and efficiency of farming Angelica dahurica and Bupleurum falcatum were analyzed. The results of the analysis can be summarized as follows. First, the farming households cultivating Angelica dahurica had an average revenue of 1,363,000 KRW per 10 acres. The average income per 10 acres was 500,000 KRW, and the income ratio was 36.7%. Second, the farming households cultivating Bupleurum falcatum had an average revenue of 1,705,000 KRW per 10 acres, with an average income per 10 acres of 873,000 KRW and an income ratio of 44.6%. Third, the farming households cultivating Angelica dahurica were found to have a technical efficiency of 0.790, a pure technical efficiency of 0.856, and a scale efficiency of 0.924. Fourth, the farming households cultivating Bupleurum falcatum were found to have a technical efficiency of 0.670, a pure technical efficiency of 0.794, and a scale efficiency of 0.844. Both Angelica dahurica and Bupleurum falcatum farming households showed relative differences in technical efficiency. The pure technical aspects, rather than the scale aspects, were shown to contribute more to the differences.

한국산 파프리카의 대중국 잠재수요 및 목표 소비자 분석

김세혁 ( Kim¸ Se-hyuk ),임청룡 ( Lim¸ Cheong-ryong ),채홍기 ( Chae¸ Hong-gi ),김태균 ( Kim¸ Tae-kyun ) 한국식품유통학회 2020 食品流通硏究 Vol.37 No.3

Paprika is expected to export to China in earnest after quarantine negotiations with China. The objective of the study is to estimate the potential demand for paprika exports to China and set up target consumers. The survey was conducted on 343 consumers in Beijing and Tobit model was used for analysis. The results show that China's annual potential demand for Korean paprika is estimated at 7,186 tons, which is considered sufficient given its exports to Japan. The results also indicate that the

시설포도 농가의 가온시기 변화에 미치는 요인 분석

최돈우(Don-Woo Choi),임청룡(Cheong-Ryong Lim) 한국산학기술학회 2017 한국산학기술학회논문지 Vol.18 No.10

본 연구에서는 한·칠 FTA 이후 시설포도 재배농가들이 가온시기를 늦추는 요인을 알아보기 위해 2004년부터 2016년까지 작형 변화 패널 데이터를 이용하여 분석하였다. 패널로지스틱모형에 대한 분석결과 시설포도 재배면적에 대한 추정계수는 0.0002로 10% 유의수준에서 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 나타났고, 포도 수입량에 대한 추정계수는 1.4258로 1% 유의수준에서 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 나타났으며, 지역더미에 대한 추정계수는 0.808로 5% 유의수준에서 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 이것은 재배면적이 많은 농가일수록, 포도 수입량이 증가할수록, 상대적으로 추운 중북부지역일수록 가온 시기를 뒤로 미루게 될 확률이 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 정부에서는 포도의 수입량 증가로 인한 시설포도농가의 피해를 줄이기 위해 FTA 피해보전직접지불․ 폐업지원을 하고 있어 시설포도농가의 피해를 다소나마 줄일 수 있지만, 이것은 궁극적인 대책이 되지는 않을 것이다. 포도 소비변화에 적절하게 대응하기 위해서는 품종 갱신, 가온비용 절감을 위한 농자재 지원, 비닐하우스 시설현대화를 통한 에너지 효율 증대 및 비용 절감 등의 다양한 지원책이 필요할 것이다. The purpose of this study is to identify the factors that led greenhouse grape farms to delay their heating periods after the coming into force of the Korea-Chile Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Panel data on the cropping (system) changes from 2004 through 2016 were used for the analysis. According to the panel logistic model,the estimated coefficient of the cultivation area was 0.0002, which was statistically significant at the 10% significance level, the estimated coefficient of grape imports was 1.4258, which was statistically significant at the 1% significance level, and the estimated coefficient of the regional dummy was 0.808, which was statistically significant at the 5% significance level. The results indicated that the use of wider cultivation areas, increase in grape imports, and colder climate(in the mid-northern part of Korea) increasedthe likelihood of delayed heating. The Korean government is offering direct payment programs and business closure support tothe greenhouse grape farmers. While these actions can relieve the damage caused by the increase in grape imports, they will not provide theultimate solution. Various support measures are needed, such as renewing the varieties to meet the changing demand of grape consumers, providing agricultural materials to reduce the heating expenses, and modernizing greenhouse facilities to improve the energy efficiency and reduce the costs.

새만금 농생명용지 경관계획 기본구상 연구

박영준 ( Park Young-jun ),임청룡 ( Lim Cheong-ryong ) 한국농촌계획학회 2023 농촌계획 Vol.29 No.1

This study aims to establish a landscape plan that can preserve the identity of the region while meeting the unique functions related to land use of the Saemangeum agricultural land. In addition, it was intended to prepare a mid- to long-term landscape plan basic concept for the formation and management of the Saemangeum agricultural land landscape. Therefore, in this study, landscape management by type for processing/storage facilities, production/processing facilities, complex/sales facilities, and research/experimental facilities for facilities scheduled to move in after setting the direction and five strategies for landscape management considering the specificity of agricultural land direction was set. In addition, the landscape management direction for 6 common landscape elements such as buildings, open spaces, advertisements, colors, public facilities, and night scenery was also presented. In particular, Agroworks, Agro City, and Agro Town, which are important landscape areas, are landscape-focused management areas, and the landscape management direction for the area has been established. This study is considered to have great utility value when setting landscape standards for public or private buildings and infrastructure, development projects, etc. to be moved in prior to establishing a landscape plan for agricultural land. It is expected that it can be used as a basis for deliberation and review of the landscape standards derived from this study in the future landscape-related licensing for agricultural land.