Contractionary devaluation in a heterogeneous agent model

원용걸 한양대학교 경제연구소 2015 JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH Vol.20 No.3

This paper explores the possibility and the robustness of contractionary devaluation in a dynamic heterogeneous agents model in which workers and capitalists make distinct optimizing decisions. Considering a small open developing economy that produces traded and non-traded goods, we assume that new capital goods are constructed by combining non-traded inputs with imported machines. Paying keen attention to the role of investment in the contractionary effects devaluation may exert, we trace both the impact responses and the transitional dynamics of the key macroeconomic variables of interest following a devaluation. Various simulation results show that, contrary to what is generally believed, even investment in the tradables sector falls on impact following a devaluation in many plausible cases. Investment in the nontradables sector falls as expected, and when taken together, aggregate investment almost always drops on impact. As a consequence of the fall in aggregate investment, real output tends to contract in the short run in most cases, whereas the balance of payments always improves following a devaluation. The results of this heterogeneous agent model are similar to those of the representative agent model, which confirms that the contractionary effects of devaluation, mainly through a slump in investment, are robust. A policy implication can be drawn that stabilization policy usually implemented with a devaluation should be complemented by appropriate investment boosting measures to maintain growth potential.

AFTA-CER間 連繫論議와 韓國의 通商政策 課題

원용걸 한국비교경제학회 2001 비교경제연구 Vol.8 No.2

Having recent development in the global trading environment in mind, this study traces and examines the dialogue process to make a formal linkage between ASEAN Free Trade Area(AFTA) and Australia-New Zealand Closer Economic Relations Trade Agreement(CER). In particular, the study is to critically evaluate the possibility of a free trade agreement (FTA) between them and its implications on regional as well as global trading environment. In doing so, the study intends to provide some policy suggestions for Korean government. Formally started in 1995, AFTA-CER linkage dialogue has successfully widened cooperation areas, especially in trade facilitation. Based on the recommendation by the High-level Task Force established in 1999, ASEAN and CER economic ministers recently agreed to work towards a Closer Economic Partnership (CEP), a similar concept to FTA. The AFTA-CER FTA has multi-faceted implications on regional and global trading environment. First of all, the FTA may cause another blow to the APEC that has already been stumbling since its failure to implement both Early Voluntary Scetoral Liberalization(EVSL) and Accelerated Trade Liberalization (ATL) initiatives. Secondly, the FTA is also believed to act an aggressive role for liberalization in agricultural sector in the coming WTO new round since many of the propsed FTA's member countries have participated in Uruguay Round as a member of Cairns Group. Finally, the FTA may trigger another round of regionalism waves all over the world in case where multilateral trade liberalization talks led by the WTO stall. While the linkage dialogue apparently looks smooth until now, there are several obstacles to overcome to proceed further and bring concrete results, such as lack of mutual confidence and starkly different stages of economic development among participating countries. Considering the intention and implications of the AFTA-CER FTA, Korean government needs to be prepared for each and every possibility. As a long-term response, regional studies on ASEAN and CER area should be encouraged. It should also be considered whether Korea is to join the AFTA-CER FTA when realized. For now, it is most important to have closer relationships whit AFTA and CER in private as well as governmental levels so as for them not to evolve an exculsive FTA.

地域主義의 擴散과 WTO 體制

元容杰 법무부 1997 통상법률 Vol.- No.13

[초록없음]

수출주도 경제성장 혹은 수입주도 경제성장? - ASEAN 주요국의 경우

원용걸 한국동남아학회 2010 동남아시아연구 Vol.20 No.1

This paper examines the causal relationship between trade and economic growth for ASEAN-4 developing members such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, using time-series data from 1980 to 2006. In contrast to most previous studies that focus mainly on exports, the paper specifies an augmented production function that explicitly tests for the effects of both exports and imports on economic growth. Following Toda and Yamamoto(1995) and Dolado and Lütkepohl(1996), this paper implements Granger causality tests by specifying an over-fitted level vector autoregression(VAR) model. The empirical results indicate export-led growth by all ASEAN-4 countries and import-led growth by Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia. Growth-led exports hypothesis is also supported by Indonesia and Thailand. This study's findings show that the imports play as much of a role as exports in stimulating economic growth in these countries. Our results convey an important policy message that the government should encourage imports that can carry advanced R&D technology and knowledge.

지역무역협정의 확산과 WTO의 역할 : WTO「지역무역협정위원회」10년의 평가

원용걸 법무부 2006 통상법률 Vol.- No.70

지역무역협정의 급속한 확산 및 심화는 최근 세계경제에서 가장 주목할 만한 현상 중 하나이다. 이에 따라 자유롭고 공정한 다자무역질서 및 이를 관장하는 WTO의 권위와 신뢰가 훼손될 수 있다는 우려가 높아지고 있다. 이에 본 논문은 지역무역협정 관련 문제를 전담하기 위해 1996년 2월 WTO 내에 설치된 지역무역협정위원회(CRTA)의 지난 10년간 활동내용 및 성과를 위임사항을 중심으로 비판적으로 평가하려 한다. 평가결과, 주요국의 의지결여 및 WTO 규범의 모호함으로 인해 CRTA는 부과된 위임사항을 제대로 달성하지 못한 것으로 드러났다. 평가결과 나타난 문제점에 근거하여 본 논문은 CRTA 운영의 효율화 방안을 제시하면서 지역무역협정의 급속한 확산속에서도 다자무역체제를 안정적으로 발전시켜 나가야 하는 WTO의 역할을 강조하려 한다. The proliferation and deepening of regional trade agreements has been one of the most prominent phenomenon in the world economy over the past decade. Therefore, there has been a mounting concern on the efficacy and the credibility of the WTO as an international institution responsible for maintaining and promoting multilateral trading order. In this regard, this paper intends to critically evaluate the role of the Committee on Regional Trade Agreements (CRTA) of the WTO since its inception in February 1996. It turns out that the CRTA, as a body responsible for regional trade agreements, has not been successful in accomplishing its assigned terms of reference due mainly to the lack of strong commitment of major member countries and the vague rules on regional trade agreements. Finally, the paper presents some ways of enhancing the efficiency of the CRTA.

한국의 對ASEAN 공적개발원조(ODA)와 수출

원용걸 한국동북아경제학회 2020 동북아경제연구 Vol.32 No.3

본 논문은 한국의 동남아국가연합(ASEAN)에 대한 공적개발원조(ODA) 현황 및 변화 추이를 고찰한 후, 중력모형(gravity model)에 근거한 패널회귀분석을 통해 對ASEAN ODA가 한국의 수출에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 분석을 위해 본 논문은 한국의 ASEAN 회원국에 대한 유상원조가 처음으로 집행된 1991년 부터 2017년까지 27년간의 유상 및 무상원조 데이터를 이용하여 중력방정식을 추정하였다. 고정효과 및 하우스만-테일러 방식에 의한 패널분석 결과는 다음 과 같이 요약된다. 첫째, 분석기간중 한국의 ODA는 ASEAN에 대한 수출을 증 가시키는 역할을 하였다. 둘째, 무상원조보다는 유상원조가 수출증가에 기여하 였다. 셋째, 무상원조만 받았던 ASEAN-4(태국, 말레이시아, 브루나이, 싱가포 르)와는 달리, 유상원조 수원국들이며 한국 ODA 중점협력국들인 ASEAN-6(인 도네시아, 베트남, 미얀마, 캄보디아, 라오스, 필리핀) 가 ASEAN에 대한 한국의 수출 증가에 중요한 역할을 하였다. 본 논문의 분석결과는 한국의 ASEAN에 대 한 ODA가 ASEAN 수원국뿐만 아니라 수출 증가를 통해 한국 경제에도 도움이 되는 윈-윈(win-win)정책임을 보여주고 있다. 이 결과는 ODA에 대한 국내 우호 여론 형성에 기여함으로써 ‘신남방정책’을 통해 향후 ASEAN에 대한 ODA를 획기적으로 증가시키려는 정부의 노력에 힘을 실어줄 것으로 기대된다.

한국 공적개발원조(ODA)의 수출, 생산 및 고용 효과

원용걸 한국무역연구원 2019 무역연구 Vol.15 No.2

This paper empirically analyzed the effects of Korea’s ODA on its exports, output and employment, thereby providing some policy implications. For the analysis, we conducted dynamic panel regressions based on the gravity model, taking into consideration the continuing relationship of the countries engaging trade. In doing so, we used bilateral ODA and macroeconomic data for 45 recipient countries that have received concessionary loans as well as grants from Korea over the period from 1989 to 2016. Main empirical results are as follows. First, Korea’s ODA significantly increases its exports to the recipient countries. Second, the increase in exports falls after Korea’s entry into the OECD Development Cooperation Committee (DAC). Third, a dollar increase in Korea’s ODA raises its exports by $2.90 in the short run and by $7.20 in the long run. Fourth, Korea’s input-output table shows that a dollar increase in Korea’s ODA expands Korea’s value-added by $1.50 in the short run and by $3.80 in the long run. Finally, Korea’s ODA has generated 230,000 domestic jobs in the short run and 580,000 jobs in long run over the past 28 years.

국제불균형과 중국의 위안화

원용걸 한국동북아경제학회 2014 동북아경제연구 Vol.26 No.1

Undervalued Chinese yuan is often believed to contribute to its massive tradesurplus, aggravating global imbalance problem. It is against this backdrop thatChinese government is asked to stop manipulating the yuan’s exchange rate andallow its currency to rapidly appreciate to reduce the trade surplus. It is,however, a testable hypothesis that yuan’s revaluation would reduce China’s tradesurplus. This paper examines the causal relationship between Chinese yuan’sexchange rate and its trade balance, using a long span of quarterly time-seriesdata from the early 1980s through 2010. Following Toda and Yamamoto(1995)and Dolado and Lütkepohl(1996), the paper implements Granger (non-)causalitytests by specifying an over-fitted level vector autoregression (VAR) model. Inaddition, the paper looks into the impulse response functions (IRFs) to see thedirection of causality. Surprisingly, empirical results reveal that real effectiveexchange rate does not Granger cause trade balance at all in all casesconsidered. China’s GDP and world GDP, however, are likely to Granger causetrade balances. As expected, the IRFs show that an increase in GDP deterioratesthe trade balances, while an increase in world GDP improves the trade balances. These results support the idea that boosting China’s domestic demands, especiallytoward private consumption is important not only for maintaining a rapideconomic growth, but also for relieving the global imbalance problem.

A Critical Evaluation of the IMF's Policy Suggestions in East Asia

원용걸 서울市立大學校 産業經營硏究所 2005 産經論集 Vol.19 No.1

This paper critically evaluates the policy programs in East Asia recommended by the IMF, in particular focusing on the appropriateness of the austerity measures and high interest rate policy. The main purpose of the paper is to argue that the IMF's initial policy prescriptions amplified the financial panic, and thus exacerbated the crisis situation by overlooking the nature of the crisis. In so doing, the paper defies conventional wisdom, and shows based on existing theoretical and empirical models that excessively tight fiscal and monetary policy might have worsen the situation when the exchange rate overly depreciated. The paper also argues that high interest rate policy indeed increased the vulnerabilities of debt-ridden corporations and already weakened financial institutions, thus destabilizing the economy and deepening recessions in the region. In addition, the paper reviews the unorthodox policy measures, capital controls under a fixed exchange rate system, adopted by the Malaysian government amid the crisis, and then provides a rationale for those measures. The paper finally emphasizes that the IMF's policy suggestions should carefully take into account the structural characteristics of a specific crisis economy as well as the nature of the crisis before being delivered.

한-ASEAN 자유무역협정(FTA)의 수출촉진 효과 분석

원용걸 한국무역연구원 2022 무역연구 Vol.18 No.5

Purpose – This paper empirically examines whether the Korea-ASEAN FTA really promotes Korea’s exports, thereby drawing some policy implications for the Korea’s FTA policy. Design/Methodology/Approach – We first calculate the export-promotion effects of the Korea-ASEAN FTA as well as other Korea’s FTAs using a difference-in-difference (DID) method, and then conduct both static and dynamic panel regression analyses based on the augmented gravity model, using Korea’s FTAs and relevant data over the period from 1999 to 2018. Findings – First, DID results reveal that the Korea-ASEAN FTA has increased its exports by 9.1%, which is much larger than the FTAs with China (-7.2%), India (-9.1%), and the EU (1.2%), but lower than the FTAs with the USA (10.4%) and EFTA (26.2%). Second, however, neither static nor dynamic panel data regression results support the export-promotion effects of the Korea-ASEAN FTA, regardless of estimation methods and export categories. Finally, ASEAN membership itself plays a statistically significant role in promoting Korea's exports to members, which implies that Korea would export more to the ASEAN members than its normal level stipulated by a gravity equation even without the FTA. Research Implications – Unlike what is commonly believed, Korea’s FTA with ASEAN as well as its other FTAs were not likely to increase its exports in a statistically significant way. It is particularly true for its FTAs with developing countries. Thus, the Korean government needs to keep improving the content of existing FTAs with developing countries to enhance the market access of Korean products.