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우광동,유승훈 한국무역연구원 2014 무역연구 Vol.10 No.3
In this paper, we analyze mainly the well-known relationship between deviation fromabsolute purchasing power parity and real per capita income by using panel regression models, and verify Balassa-Samuelson effects. We determine how much of the degree of misalignment of the renminbi (RMB) stands relative to the equilibrium real exchange rate using these methods. Although undervaluation or overvaluation of the RMB exists, most of the misalignments from the equilibrium exchange rate keep within two standard error bands. The Balassa-Samuelson effects are at work. Even considering the serial correlation and control variables (demographic variables, current account, M2/GDP, capital openness, corruption index, an interaction term), similar results can be obtained.
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An Empirical Study of the Renminbi Equilibrium Exchange Rate: Is RMB undervalued?
우광동,유승훈 한국무역연구원 2013 무역연구 Vol.9 No.2
In order to analyze the massive trade imbalance between China and America, we discuss the degree of RMB's misalignment in a tractable framework by estimating the long run equilibrium real effective exchange rate of the currency during 1980-2009 in this paper. Based on estimation of behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and using Johansen co-integration technique, we conclude that RMB fluctuates around its long-run equilibrium exchange rate within a range of positive 3% and minus 4% bands. This implies that the currency has not been significantly underv lued or overvalued. According to the four control variables (terms of trade, GDP per capita , foreign exchange reserve and money supply), we deem that increase of foreign exchange reserve and per capita output, decrease of money supply will lead to the appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate. Implications of the empirical findings of this study indicates China's exchange rate policy may have played an insignificant role in its trade surpluses.
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Are state-owned enterprises under share issuing privatization efficient in China?
유승훈,우광동 한국국제통상학회 2011 국제통상연구 Vol.16 No.3
We evaluate the performance changes of 23 state-owned enterprises (SOEs) listed on Shanghai Exchange upon share issuing privatization (SIP)in the period 1993-2009. Before listing, we suppose that return on assets (ROA) of SOEs out-perform those of market, but under-perform that of industries. While, the other proxies--return on equity (ROE), total assets turnover (TSTA) and total debt ratio (TLTA)--outperform those of market or industries. After listing, we find that SIP has some positive impacts on their performance. In addition, there are several evidences that SOEs are more effective than a selected group of privatized enterprises and markets in terms of profitability, output and leverage condition. We also find that SOEs' stock returns are statistically insignificant compared with market or other control sample returns up to four years after IPO. In a word,according to variations of firm performance studied in the period three years before and three years after privatization, we conclude that SOEs are rather more efficient than private enterprises in profitability and output.
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