http://chineseinput.net/에서 pinyin(병음)방식으로 중국어를 변환할 수 있습니다.
변환된 중국어를 복사하여 사용하시면 됩니다.
개방경제의 불가능한 삼위일체와 중국의 거시경제정책 조합
송태섭 培材大學校 社會科學硏究所 2013 사회과학연구 Vol.35 No.1
China has reached a point in its evolution towards a major market-oriented economy at trying to switch growth strategy from export-and investment led growth to consumption-led growth and in recent years China has faced an increasing trilemma—how to pursue an independent domestic monetary policy and limit exchange rate flexibility, while at the same time facing large and growing international capital flows. This paper analyzes the impact of the trilemma on China’s macro configuration. A stable macroeconomic policies and a well-developed and efficient financial sector are essential ingredients for balanced and sustainable growth. In turn, these two intermediate objectives would be helped by effective monetary policy and further capital account liberalization, and a flexible exchange rate is a prerequisite for both of these The essence of the policy debate can be framed in terms of the pace and sequencing of reforms required to turn these reforms into forces that allow the growth miracle to be sustained and to reduce the risks of its being derailed by shocks. A sudden move to a fully floating exchange rate regime is not advisable in the medium term, An intermediate regime should be envisaged to help smooth the transition. There are difficult policy issues in the interaction between capital inflows, monetary policy, and the exchange rate. These interactions do in fact make good policy-making very challenging. The key problem is that the Wicksellian “natural” interest rate will differ quite substantially between developing and mature countries, presenting a structural problem rather than the cyclical problem envisaged in the Impossible Trinity. Rather than base the policy mind-set on the Impossible Trinity, it would be better to have in mind something along the lines of the Williamson band/basket/crawl and a notion of the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate.
송태섭 배재대학교사회과학 연구소 2004 사회과학연구 Vol.25 No.-
This paper reviews recent trends in thinking on appropriate exchange rate regimes in developing countries. After the Asian financial crisis, many observers have suggested that intermediate exchange rate regimes are vanishing and that countries around the world are being driven to the corner solutions. The bipolar solutions are either hard pegs or freely floating exchange rate regimes. However many countries that say they allow their exchange rate to float mostly do not. In the real world there seems to be an epidemic case of "fear of floating." The Corners Hypothesis may now be peaking as rapidly as it rose, in light of its lack of foundations. The conclusion from the review is that there are good grounds for intermediate exchange rate regimes to work well in developing countries and that the choice of exchange rate regime is likely to be of second order importance to the development of good fiscal, financial, and monetary institutions in producing macroeconomic success.