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수요 특성이 계층적 수요예측법의 퍼포먼스에 미치는 영향
문성민(Seongmin Moon) 한국경영과학회 2012 經營 科學 Vol.29 No.1
The demand for naval spare parts is intermittent and erratic. This feature, referred to as non-normal demand, makes forecasting difficult. Hierarchical forecasting using an aggregated time series can be more reliable to predict non-normal demand than direct forecasting. In practice the performance of hierarchical forecasting is not always superior to direct forecasting. The relative performance of the alternative forecasting methods depends on the demand features. This paper analyses the influence of the demand features on the performance of the alternative forecasting methods that use hierarchical and direct forecasting. Among various demand features variability, kurtosis, skewness and equipment groups are shown to significantly influence on the performance of the alternative forecasting methods.
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주이환(Yi-Hwan Joo),진진(Zhen Qin),문성민(Seongmin Moon),류성기(Sung-Ki Lyu) 한국기계가공학회 2020 한국기계가공학회지 Vol.19 No.4
Induction bending via high-frequency heating is widely used for manufacturing pipe and section steel bends. It allows productivity improvement, unit cost reduction, delivery time compliance, and good mechanical properties. The recent increase in high-end vessels and offshore plants has raised the demand for high-frequency bending, which should improve the product quality and reduce the costs by simplifying the fabrication process; therefore, the characteristics and performance of this technique must be studied and proper design technology is required. During hot pipe bending via induction heating, the outward wall thickness of the pipe is thinned due to tensile stress and this thickness reduction cannot exceed 12.5%. This study focused on pipe bends with a bending curvature of 5D and their optimization design; in particular, the conditions that can both improve the productivity of the high-frequency bending process and keep the maximum thickness reduction below 12.5% were determined.
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