야간 역전조건 하의 지표기온 경시변화 추정

김수옥,Kim, Soo-ock 한국농림기상학회 2017 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.19 No.3

청명미풍 조건에서 기온역전층 높이와 기온역전강도의 매시 변화를 정량적인 경험식으로 나타내어 야간의 매시 기온을 추정하는 방법을 고안하였다. 2007년 5월부터 2008년 3월까지 강원도 평창군 대관령면 고령지농업연구소에서 초단파 온도 프로파일러 (Model MTP5H)로 지면으로부터 높이 600m까지 50m 간격의 기온 연직 분포를 한 시간 간격으로 측정하였다. 연직기온에서 가장 기온이 높은 고도를 기온역전층 높이로, 역전층의 기온과 지면 위 100m의 기온 편차를 역전강도로 간주하고 야간 동안 시간에 따라 기온 역전층이 발달되는 정도를 모의하는 추정식을 작성하였다. 산사면에서 작물이 실제 경험하는 기온을 추정하기 위해 2014년 10월부터 2015년 11월 23일까지 전남 구례군과 광양시 사이의 중대리 계곡에서 사면의 고도별 기온을 수집하여 연직기온의 역전층 높이 및 역전강도 추정모수를 보정하였다. 지리산 남쪽의 집수역 3개 내에 구축된 검증관측망으로부터 2015년 한 해 동안의 기상자료를 수집하였고, 기상청 방재 및 종관기상관측망으로부터 배경기온을 제작, 기온감률과 함께 기온역전 조건하의 매시 기온을 추정한 다음 검증을 실시하였다. 그 결과, 청명미풍 조건에 대해 19지점 평균 ME $-0.69^{\circ}C$, 평균 RMSE $1.61^{\circ}C$이었고 2000-0100 시간대에서 과소추정오차가 증가되었다. 기존에 사용되어 왔던 최저기온 모형으로 0600 기온을 추정하고 새로운 모의 방법으로 산출된 결과와 추정 오차를 비교한 결과, 평균 ME는 기존 $-0.86^{\circ}C$에서 $-0.12^{\circ}C$로, 평균 RMSE는 $1.72^{\circ}C$에서 $1.34^{\circ}C$로 개선되었다. 청명미풍 조건에서 도출된 기온 추정식의 활용도를 높이기 위해서는 추정 오차를 개선하고 다양한 기상조건에 대한 영향을 반영하는 후속 연구가 필요하다. A method to estimate hourly temperature profiles on calm and clear nights was developed based on temporal changes of inversion height and strength. A meteorological temperature profiler (Model MTP5H, Kipp and Zonen) was installed on the rooftop of the Highland Agriculture Research Institute, located in Daegwallyeong-myeon, Pyeongchang-gun, Gangwon-do. The hourly vertical distribution of air temperature was measured up to 600 m at intervals of 50 m from May 2007 to March 2008. Temperature and relative humidity data loggers (HOBO U23 Pro v2, Onset Computer Corporation, USA) were installed in the Jungdae-ri Valley, located between Gurye-gun, Jeollanam-do and Gwangyang-si, Jeollanam-do. These loggers were used to archive measurements of weather data 1.5 m above the surface from October 3, 2014, to November 23, 2015. The inversion strength was determined using the difference between the temperature at the inversion height, which is the highest temperature in the profile, and the temperature at 100 m from the surface. Empirical equations for the changes of inversion height and strength were derived to express the development of temperature inversion on calm and clear nights. To estimate air temperature near the ground on a slope exposed to crops, the equation's parameters were modified using temperature distribution of the mountain slope obtained from the data loggers. Estimated hourly temperatures using the method were compared with observed temperatures at 19 weather sites located within three watersheds in the southern Jiri-mountain in 2015. The mean error (ME) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the hourly temperatures were $-0.69^{\circ}C$ and $1.61^{\circ}C$, respectively. Hourly temperatures were often underestimated from 2000 to 0100 LST the next day. When temperatures were estimated at 0600 LST using the existing model, ME and RMSE were $-0.86^{\circ}C$ and $1.72^{\circ}C$, respectively. The method proposed in this study resulted in a smaller error, e.g., ME of $-0.12^{\circ}C$ and RMSE of $1.34^{\circ}C$. The method could be improved further taking into account various weather conditions, which could reduce the estimation error.

생산직 근로자의 건강실태 조사

김수옥,신상춘,Kim, Su-Ok,Sin, Sang-Chun 한국지역사회간호학회 1990 지역사회간호학회지 Vol.2 No.1

Stigmatella aurantiaca의 발생에 대한 연구(I) -fruiting body 형성에 미치는 몇가지 양이온과 pheromone 및 GMP의 영향-

김수옥,김영민,Kim, Soo-Ok,Kim, Young-Min 한국미생물학회 1984 미생물학회지 Vol.22 No.1

Stigimatella aurantiaca는 calcium, barium, 또는 lithium이온이 포함된 배지에서는 빛을 비추어 주어도 stalk를 형성하지 않고 포자낭으로만 분화하였다. Calcium이온과 GMP가 함께 첨가된 배지(GMP 배지)에서는 빛의 유무에 관계없이 stalk와 포자낭을 지니는 fruiting body가 형성되었다. Calcium 이온과 pheromone 포함된 배지(pheromone배지)에서는 빛이 있는 경우에는 대부분의 세균들이 stalk로만 분화되었으나, 빛이 없는 경우에는 대부분 포자낭으로만 분화하였다. 세균집합체는 calcium과 potassium 및 sodium이 함꼐 첨가된 배지(CPS배지)에서보다 calcium 이온만 첨가된 배지 (calcium 배지)에서 더 많이 형성되었다. GMP 배지나 pheromone 배지에서는 calcium 배지에서보다 적은 수의 세균집합체가 형성되었고, 빛이 없는 경우에는 이 집합체의 형성이 소요된 시간이 단축되었다. 빛은 상기한 네가지 배지에서 공히 짧은 시간에 더 많은 세균집합체가 형성되도록 하였다. Cells of Stigmatella aurantiace developed in the light on the medium containing calcium, barium, or lithium ion formed fruiting bodies without stalk. Fruiting body with stalk was formed on the medium containing calcium ion and GMP (GMP-medium) even under the dark condition. On the medium containing calcium and pheromone (pheromone-medium), most cells were developed only into the stalk in the light and into the sporangium in the dark. The number of aggregate formed on the medium containing calcium ion (Ca-medium) was more than that formed on the medium containing calcium, potassium, and sodium ions (CPS-medium). The number of aggregate formed on the GMP or pheromone-medium was less than that formed on the Ca-medium. Both pheromone and GMP reduced the time required for aggregate formation when cells were developed in the dark. Light stimulated cells to form more aggregates in short time when it was introduced into the Ca-, CPS-, GMP-, or pheromone-medium.

일 최대풍속의 추정확률분포에 의한 농작물 강풍 피해 위험도 판정 방법

김수옥,Kim, Soo-ock 한국농림기상학회 2017 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.19 No.3

기상청 동네예보 풍속으로부터 농작물의 강풍피해를 예측하기 위해, 방재기상관측지점 19곳의 2012년 풍속자료를 이용하여 기상청 동네예보의 3시간 간격과 동일한 0000, 0300 ${\cdots}$ 2100 시간대의 풍속과 직전 3시간 동안의 최대풍속 간의 관계를 직선회귀식으로 표현하였다. 매 3시간 마다 추정된 최대풍속 중 가장 큰 값을 일 최대풍속으로 간주하고, 이 때의 추정오차를 정규분포와 Weibull 분포 확률밀도함수로 표현하였다. 또한 일 최대풍속과 작물 피해 임계풍속 간의 편차를 추정오차 기반 확률 분포에 적용하여 확률누적값으로 풍해 '주의보'와 '경보' 단계를 설정하였다. 19지점별 최대풍속 추정 회귀계수(a, b)와 추정오차의 표준편차 및 Weibull 분포의 모수(${\alpha}$, ${\beta}$)는 공간내삽하여 분포도로 작성하고 종관기상관측지점 4곳(순천, 남원, 임실, 장수)의 격자값을 추출하였다. 이를 이용해 2012년의 일 최대풍속을 추정하고, 배 만삼길 품종의 낙과 발생 사례에서 제시된 풍속 10m/s를 낙과 임계풍속으로 간주, 풍해 주의보와 경보를 판정하였다. 그 결과, 최대풍속 추정오차를 Weibull 분포로 표현하여 풍해 위험 정도를 판정하는 것이 정규분포만을 이용하는 것보다 더 현장에 정확한 주의보를 발령할 수 있었다. The crop damage caused by strong wind was predicted using the wind speed data available from Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). Wind speed data measured at 19 automatic weather stations in 2012 were compared with wind data available from the KMA's digital forecast. Linear regression equations were derived using the maximum value of wind speed measurements for the three-hour period prior to a given hour and the digital forecasts at the three-hour interval. Estimates of daily maximum wind speed were obtained from the regression equation finding the greatest value among the maximum wind speed at the three-hour interval. The estimation error for the daily maximum wind speed was expressed using normal distribution and Weibull distribution probability density function. The daily maximum wind speed was compared with the critical wind speed that could cause crop damage to determine the level of stages for wind damage, e.g., "watch" or "warning." Spatial interpolation of the regression coefficient for the maximum wind speed, the standard deviation of the estimation error at the automated weather stations, the parameters of Weibull distribution was performed. These interpolated values at the four synoptic weather stations including Suncheon, Namwon, Imsil, and Jangsu were used to estimate the daily maximum wind speed in 2012. The wind damage risk was determined using the critical wind speed of 10m/s under the assumption that the fruit of a pear variety Mansamgil would begin to drop at 10 m/s. The results indicated that the Weibull distribution was more effective than the normal distribution for the estimation error probability distribution for assessing wind damage risk.

신고 배의 개화기 결정에 미치는 온도영향의 정량화

김수옥 ( Soo Ock Kim ),김진희 ( Jin Hee Kim ),정유란 ( Uran Chung ),김승희 ( Seung Heui Kim ),박건환 ( Gun Hwan Park ),윤진일 ( Jin I. Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2009 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.11 No.2

Most deciduous trees in temperate zone are dormant during the winter to overcome cold and dry environment. Dormancy of deciduous fruit trees is usually separated into a period of rest by physiological conditions and a period of quiescence by unfavorable environmental conditions. Inconsistent and fewer budburst in pear orchards has been reported recently in South Korea and Japan and the insufficient chilling due to warmer winters is suspected to play a role. An accurate prediction of the flowering time under the climate change scenarios may be critical to the planning of adaptation strategy for the pear industry in the future. However, existing methods for the prediction of budburst depend on the spring temperature, neglecting potential effects of warmer winters on the rest release and subsequent budburst. We adapted a dormancy clock model which uses daily temperature data to calculate the thermal time for simulating winter phenology of deciduous trees and tested the feasibility of this model in predicting budburst and flowering of Niitaka pear, one of the favorite cultivars in Korea. In order to derive the model parameter values suitable for Niitaka, the mean time for the rest release was estimated by observing budburst of field collected twigs in a controlled environment. The thermal time (in chill-days) was calculated and accumulated by a predefined temperature range from fall harvest until the chilling requirement (maximum accumulated chill-days in a negative number) is met. The chilling requirement is then offset by anti-chill days (in positive numbers) until the accumulated chill-days become null, which is assumed to be the budburst date. Calculations were repeated with arbitrary threshold temperatures from 4℃ to 10℃ (at an interval of 0.1), and a set of threshold temperature and chilling requirement was selected when the estimated budburst date coincides with the field observation. A heating requirement (in accumulation of anti-chill days since budburst) for flowering was also determined from an experiment based on historical observations. The dormancy clock model optimized with the selected parameter values was used to predict flowering of Niitaka pear grown in Suwon for the recent 9 years. The predicted dates for full bloom were within the range of the observed dates with 1.9 days of root mean square error.

폐결핵 진단 시 중합효소연쇄반응검사 반복 시행의 의의

김수옥 ( Soo Ok Kim ),김윤희 ( Yoon Hee Kim ),지수영 ( Su Young Chi ),반희정 ( Hee Jung Ban ),오인재 ( In Jae Oh ),권용수 ( Yong Soo Kwon ),김규식 ( Kyu Sik Kim ),김유일 ( Yu Il Kim ),임성철 ( Sung Chul Lim ),김영철 ( Young Chul K 대한결핵 및 호흡기학회 2010 Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases Vol.68 No.6

Background: The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test is important for the confirmatory diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The aim of this study was to analyze the yield of repeated PCR testing in patients with confirmed pulmonary TB. Methods: The medical records of 130 patients, who had more than two consecutive PCR tests and a M. tuberculosis- positive sputum culture from August, 2006 to December, 2007, were retrospectively reviewed for the purposes of this study. A positive TB-PCR test was defined as at least one positive test result. Results: The cumulative positive PCR test rate was 80% (104/130), with gradually increasing rates of positive findings upon the first, second and third TB-PCR tests with 52.3%, 68.5% and 75.4%, respectively. However, further testing did not increase the positive rate further. Conclusion: Repeated PCR testing at least three times for M. tuberculosis is helpful for diagnosis of pulmonary TB.

냉기호 형성 집수역의 일 최저기온 분포에 미치는 바람효과

김수옥 ( Soo Ock Kim ),김진희 ( Jin Hee Kim ),김대준 ( Dae Jun Kim ),윤진일 ( Jin Il Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2012 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.14 No.4

When wind speed exceeds a certain threshold, daily minimum temperature does not drop as predicted by the geospatial model in a cold pooling catchment. A linear regression equation was derived to explain the warming effect of wind speed on daily minimum temperature by analyzing observations at a low lying location within an enclosed catchment. The equation, Y=2X+0.4 (R2=0.76) where Y stands for the warming (oC) and X for the mean horizontal wind speed (m/s) at 2m height, was combined to an existing model to predict daily minimum temperature across an enclosed catchment on cold pooling days. The adjusted model was applied to 3 locations submerged in a cold air pool to predict daily minimum temperature on 25 cold pooling days with the input of simulated wind speed at each location. Results showed that bias (mean error) was reduced from -1.33 to -0.37 and estimation error (RMSE) from 1.72 to 1.20, respectively, in comparison with those from the unadjusted model.

신 기후변화시나리오 RCP8.5에 근거한 복숭아 주산지 세 곳의 동해위험도 평가

김수옥 ( Soo Ock Kim ),김대준 ( Dae Jun Kim ),김진희 ( Jin Hee Kim ),윤진일 ( Jin I Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2012 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.14 No.3

This study was carried out to evaluate a possible change in freeze risk for ``Changhowon Hwangdo`` peach buds in three major peach growing areas under the future climate projected by RCP8.5 emission scenario. Mean values of the monthly temperature data for the present decade (2000s) and the future decades (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) were extracted for farm lands in Icheon, Chungju, and Yeongcheon-Gyeongsan region at a stochastic process for each decade. The daily data ere used to calculate a thermal time-based dormancy depth index which is closely related to the cold tolerance of peach buds. Combined with daily minimum temperature, dormancy depth can be used to estimate the potential risk freezing damage on peach buds. When the freeze risk was calculated daily for the winter period(from 1 N ovember to 15 March) in the present decade, Icheon and Chungju regions had high values across the whole peridd, but Yeongcheon-Gyeongsan regions had low values from mid- December to the end of January. In the future decades, the frequency of freezing damage would be reduced in all 3 regions and the reduction rate could be as high as 75 to 90% by 2080`s. However, the severe class risk (over 80% damage) will not disappear in the future and most occurrences will be limited to December to early January according to the calculation. This phenomenon might be explained by shortened cold hardiness period caused by winter warming as well as sudden cold waves resulting from the higher inter-annual climate variability projected by the RCP8.5 scenario.

기상청 동네예보의 영농활용도 증진을 위한 방안 1. 기온역전조건의 국지기온 보정

김수옥 ( Soo Ock Kim ),김대준 ( Dae Jun Kim ),김진희 ( Jin Hee Kim ),윤진일 ( Jin I Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2013 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.15 No.2

기상청 동네예보의 공간규모를 농촌현실에 맞게 상세화 하는 일은 농업기상정보의 가치를 높이기 위한 전제조건이다. 이 연구에서는 기온역전조건에서 기상청의 중규모 기온예보를 집수역 내 지형특성이 반영된 국지기온예보로 상세화 할 수 있는 간단한 기법을 제시하였다. 지리산 남사면에 위치한 전형적인 복잡지형의 농촌 집수역(50㎢)을 대상지역으로 선정하고, 2011년 10월부터 2012년 4월 기간 중 기온역전에 의한 냉기집적이 의심되는 62일에 대해 동네예보 0600 기온자료(5km×5km 격자)를 수집하였다. 여기에 단일집수역의 냉기호 및 온난대효과를 모의할 수 있는 소기후모형을 적용하여 상세격자(30m×30m) 단위로 표출하였다. 연구대상지역에 설치된 무인기상관측기 12지점 자료를 이용, 보정된 0600 기온예보값을 검증한 결과, 기온역전일의 평균 ME는 ±1℃, RMSE는 1.6℃를 보였다. 이 결과는 동네예보 경우(ME ±2℃, RMSE 1.9℃)에 비하여 지역적 편기성이 크게 개선된 것으로서, 찬 공기가 집적되는 저지대에서 더욱 개선 효과가 컸다. 보정된 예보기온의 추정오차가 2℃ 미만인 경우는 전체 기온역전일 중 80%에 해당하였으며, 절반 정도는 추정오차가 1℃ 이내였다. 동상해 위험이 큰 기상조건에서 소기후모형에 의해 보정된 동네예보를 지역 내 각 농장에 제공할 경우 무보정 동네예보를 제공하는 것에 비해 신뢰도를 크게 높일 수 있어 동상해 위험의 조기경보시스템 실용화에 기여할 것으로 기대된다. Adequate downscaling of the official forecasts of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) is a prerequisite to improving the value and utility of agrometeorological information in rural areas, where complex terrain and small farms constitute major features of the landscape. This study suggests a simple correction scheme for scaling down the KMA temperature forecasts from mesoscale (5km by 5km) to the local scale (30m by 30m) across a rural catchment, especially under temperature inversion conditions. Study area is a rural catchment of 50㎢ area with complex terrain and located on a southern slope of Mountain Jiri National Park. Temperature forecasts for 0600 LST on 62 days with temperature inversion were selected from the fall 2011-spring 2012 KMA data archive. A geospatial correction scheme which can simulate both cold air drainage and the so-called ``thermal belt`` was used to derive the site-specific temperature deviation across the study area at a 30m by 30m resolution from the original 5km by 5km forecast grids. Observed temperature data at 12 validation sites within the study area showed a substantial reduction in forecast error: from ±2℃ to ±1℃ in the mean error range and from 1.9℃ to 1.6℃ in the root mean square error, respectively. Improvement was most remarkable at low lying locations showing frequent cold pooling events. Temperature prediction error was less than 2℃ for more than 80% of the observed inversion cases and less than 1℃ for half of the cases. Temperature forecasts corrected by this scheme may accelerate implementation of the freeze and frost early warning service for major fruits growing regions in Korea.

기관지동맥색전술 후 객혈의 재발에 관한 연구

김수옥 ( Kim Su Og ),오인재 ( O In Jae ),김규식 ( Kim Gyu Sig ),유영권 ( Yu Yeong Gwon ),임성철 ( Im Seong Cheol ),김영철 ( Kim Yeong Cheol ),박경옥 ( Park Gyeong Og ),김재규 ( Kim Jae Gyu ) 대한결핵 및 호흡기학회 2001 Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases Vol.51 No.4