야간 역전조건 하의 지표기온 경시변화 추정

김수옥,Kim, Soo-ock 한국농림기상학회 2017 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.19 No.3

청명미풍 조건에서 기온역전층 높이와 기온역전강도의 매시 변화를 정량적인 경험식으로 나타내어 야간의 매시 기온을 추정하는 방법을 고안하였다. 2007년 5월부터 2008년 3월까지 강원도 평창군 대관령면 고령지농업연구소에서 초단파 온도 프로파일러 (Model MTP5H)로 지면으로부터 높이 600m까지 50m 간격의 기온 연직 분포를 한 시간 간격으로 측정하였다. 연직기온에서 가장 기온이 높은 고도를 기온역전층 높이로, 역전층의 기온과 지면 위 100m의 기온 편차를 역전강도로 간주하고 야간 동안 시간에 따라 기온 역전층이 발달되는 정도를 모의하는 추정식을 작성하였다. 산사면에서 작물이 실제 경험하는 기온을 추정하기 위해 2014년 10월부터 2015년 11월 23일까지 전남 구례군과 광양시 사이의 중대리 계곡에서 사면의 고도별 기온을 수집하여 연직기온의 역전층 높이 및 역전강도 추정모수를 보정하였다. 지리산 남쪽의 집수역 3개 내에 구축된 검증관측망으로부터 2015년 한 해 동안의 기상자료를 수집하였고, 기상청 방재 및 종관기상관측망으로부터 배경기온을 제작, 기온감률과 함께 기온역전 조건하의 매시 기온을 추정한 다음 검증을 실시하였다. 그 결과, 청명미풍 조건에 대해 19지점 평균 ME $-0.69^{\circ}C$, 평균 RMSE $1.61^{\circ}C$이었고 2000-0100 시간대에서 과소추정오차가 증가되었다. 기존에 사용되어 왔던 최저기온 모형으로 0600 기온을 추정하고 새로운 모의 방법으로 산출된 결과와 추정 오차를 비교한 결과, 평균 ME는 기존 $-0.86^{\circ}C$에서 $-0.12^{\circ}C$로, 평균 RMSE는 $1.72^{\circ}C$에서 $1.34^{\circ}C$로 개선되었다. 청명미풍 조건에서 도출된 기온 추정식의 활용도를 높이기 위해서는 추정 오차를 개선하고 다양한 기상조건에 대한 영향을 반영하는 후속 연구가 필요하다. A method to estimate hourly temperature profiles on calm and clear nights was developed based on temporal changes of inversion height and strength. A meteorological temperature profiler (Model MTP5H, Kipp and Zonen) was installed on the rooftop of the Highland Agriculture Research Institute, located in Daegwallyeong-myeon, Pyeongchang-gun, Gangwon-do. The hourly vertical distribution of air temperature was measured up to 600 m at intervals of 50 m from May 2007 to March 2008. Temperature and relative humidity data loggers (HOBO U23 Pro v2, Onset Computer Corporation, USA) were installed in the Jungdae-ri Valley, located between Gurye-gun, Jeollanam-do and Gwangyang-si, Jeollanam-do. These loggers were used to archive measurements of weather data 1.5 m above the surface from October 3, 2014, to November 23, 2015. The inversion strength was determined using the difference between the temperature at the inversion height, which is the highest temperature in the profile, and the temperature at 100 m from the surface. Empirical equations for the changes of inversion height and strength were derived to express the development of temperature inversion on calm and clear nights. To estimate air temperature near the ground on a slope exposed to crops, the equation's parameters were modified using temperature distribution of the mountain slope obtained from the data loggers. Estimated hourly temperatures using the method were compared with observed temperatures at 19 weather sites located within three watersheds in the southern Jiri-mountain in 2015. The mean error (ME) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the hourly temperatures were $-0.69^{\circ}C$ and $1.61^{\circ}C$, respectively. Hourly temperatures were often underestimated from 2000 to 0100 LST the next day. When temperatures were estimated at 0600 LST using the existing model, ME and RMSE were $-0.86^{\circ}C$ and $1.72^{\circ}C$, respectively. The method proposed in this study resulted in a smaller error, e.g., ME of $-0.12^{\circ}C$ and RMSE of $1.34^{\circ}C$. The method could be improved further taking into account various weather conditions, which could reduce the estimation error.

일 최대풍속의 추정확률분포에 의한 농작물 강풍 피해 위험도 판정 방법

김수옥,Kim, Soo-ock 한국농림기상학회 2017 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.19 No.3

기상청 동네예보 풍속으로부터 농작물의 강풍피해를 예측하기 위해, 방재기상관측지점 19곳의 2012년 풍속자료를 이용하여 기상청 동네예보의 3시간 간격과 동일한 0000, 0300 ${\cdots}$ 2100 시간대의 풍속과 직전 3시간 동안의 최대풍속 간의 관계를 직선회귀식으로 표현하였다. 매 3시간 마다 추정된 최대풍속 중 가장 큰 값을 일 최대풍속으로 간주하고, 이 때의 추정오차를 정규분포와 Weibull 분포 확률밀도함수로 표현하였다. 또한 일 최대풍속과 작물 피해 임계풍속 간의 편차를 추정오차 기반 확률 분포에 적용하여 확률누적값으로 풍해 '주의보'와 '경보' 단계를 설정하였다. 19지점별 최대풍속 추정 회귀계수(a, b)와 추정오차의 표준편차 및 Weibull 분포의 모수(${\alpha}$, ${\beta}$)는 공간내삽하여 분포도로 작성하고 종관기상관측지점 4곳(순천, 남원, 임실, 장수)의 격자값을 추출하였다. 이를 이용해 2012년의 일 최대풍속을 추정하고, 배 만삼길 품종의 낙과 발생 사례에서 제시된 풍속 10m/s를 낙과 임계풍속으로 간주, 풍해 주의보와 경보를 판정하였다. 그 결과, 최대풍속 추정오차를 Weibull 분포로 표현하여 풍해 위험 정도를 판정하는 것이 정규분포만을 이용하는 것보다 더 현장에 정확한 주의보를 발령할 수 있었다. The crop damage caused by strong wind was predicted using the wind speed data available from Korean Meteorological Administration (KMA). Wind speed data measured at 19 automatic weather stations in 2012 were compared with wind data available from the KMA's digital forecast. Linear regression equations were derived using the maximum value of wind speed measurements for the three-hour period prior to a given hour and the digital forecasts at the three-hour interval. Estimates of daily maximum wind speed were obtained from the regression equation finding the greatest value among the maximum wind speed at the three-hour interval. The estimation error for the daily maximum wind speed was expressed using normal distribution and Weibull distribution probability density function. The daily maximum wind speed was compared with the critical wind speed that could cause crop damage to determine the level of stages for wind damage, e.g., "watch" or "warning." Spatial interpolation of the regression coefficient for the maximum wind speed, the standard deviation of the estimation error at the automated weather stations, the parameters of Weibull distribution was performed. These interpolated values at the four synoptic weather stations including Suncheon, Namwon, Imsil, and Jangsu were used to estimate the daily maximum wind speed in 2012. The wind damage risk was determined using the critical wind speed of 10m/s under the assumption that the fruit of a pear variety Mansamgil would begin to drop at 10 m/s. The results indicated that the Weibull distribution was more effective than the normal distribution for the estimation error probability distribution for assessing wind damage risk.

미래 시나리오 기후조건하에서의 사과 "후지" 품종 재배적지 탐색

김수옥 ( Soo Ock Kim ),정유란 ( U Ran Chung ),김승희 ( Seung Heui Kim ),최인명 ( In Myung Choi ),윤진일 ( Jin I. Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2009 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.11 No.4

폐쇄집수역의 냉기호 모의를 통한 일 최저기온 분포 추정

김수옥 ( Soo Ock Kim ),윤진일 ( Jin I. Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2011 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.13 No.4

Cold air on sloping surfaces flows down to the valley bottom in mountainous terrain at calm and clear nights. Based on the assumption that the cold air flow may be the same as the water flow, current models estimate temperature drop by regarding the cold air accumulation at a given location as the water-like free drainage. At a closed catchment whose outlet is blocked by man-made obstacles such as banks and roads, however, the water-like free drainage assumption is no longer valid because the cold air accumulates from the bottom first. We developed an empirical model to estimate quantitatively the effect of cold pool on nocturnal temperature in a closed catchment. In our model, a closed catchment is treated like a vessel, and a digital elevation model (DEM) was used to calculate the maximum capacity of the cold pool formed in a closed catchment. We introduce a topographical variable named shape factor, which is the ratio of the cold air accumulation potential across the whole catchment area to the maximum capacity of the cold pool to describe the relative size of temperature drop at a wider range of catchment shapes. The shape factor is then used to simulate the density profile of cold pool formed in a given catchment based on a hypsometric equation. The cold lake module was incorporated with the existing model (i.e., Chung et al., 2006), generating a new model and predicting distribution of minimum temperature over closed catchments. We applied this model to Akyang valley (i.e., a typical closed catchment of 53 km2 area) in the southern skirt of Mt. Jiri National Park where 12 automated weather stations (AWS) are operational. The performance of the model was evaluated based on the feasibility of delineating the temperature pattern accurately at cold pool forming at night. Overall, the model`s ability of simulating the spatial pattern of lower temperature were improved especially at the valley bottom, showing a similar pattern of the estimated temperature with that of thermal images obtained across the valley at dawn (0520 to 0600 local standard time) of 17 May 2011. Error in temperature estimation, calculated with the root mean square error using the 10 low-lying AWSs, was substantially decreased from 1.30℃ with the existing model to 0.71℃ with the new model. These results suggest the feasibility of the new method in predicting the site-specific freeze and frost warning at a closed catchment.

냉기호 형성 집수역의 일 최저기온 분포에 미치는 바람효과

김수옥 ( Soo Ock Kim ),김진희 ( Jin Hee Kim ),김대준 ( Dae Jun Kim ),윤진일 ( Jin Il Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2012 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.14 No.4

When wind speed exceeds a certain threshold, daily minimum temperature does not drop as predicted by the geospatial model in a cold pooling catchment. A linear regression equation was derived to explain the warming effect of wind speed on daily minimum temperature by analyzing observations at a low lying location within an enclosed catchment. The equation, Y=2X+0.4 (R2=0.76) where Y stands for the warming (oC) and X for the mean horizontal wind speed (m/s) at 2m height, was combined to an existing model to predict daily minimum temperature across an enclosed catchment on cold pooling days. The adjusted model was applied to 3 locations submerged in a cold air pool to predict daily minimum temperature on 25 cold pooling days with the input of simulated wind speed at each location. Results showed that bias (mean error) was reduced from -1.33 to -0.37 and estimation error (RMSE) from 1.72 to 1.20, respectively, in comparison with those from the unadjusted model.

기상청 동네예보의 영농활용도 증진을 위한 방안: Ⅴ. 하늘상태 기반 기온감률 추정기법의 실용성 평가

김수옥 ( Soo-ock Kim ),윤진일 ( Jin I. Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2016 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.18 No.3

운량 기반 기온감률 추정모형을 이용하여 0600과 1500의 기온감률을 모의하고, 최저 및 최고기온 추정과 정에 활용되었던 기존의 단일 기온감률(­6.5°C/km, ­9°C/km)에 비해 추정 기온감률이 0600, 1500 기온의 추정오차를 개선할 수 있는지 확인하였다. 경남 하동과 전남 구례, 광양 지역의 ‘하동 2 수위표’ 집수역을 기온감률 추정기법의 실용성 평가 지역으로 선정하고, 이 집수역 내 기상관측지점 12곳의 0600, 1500 기온자료를 2015년 한 해에 대해 수집하였다. 또한 2015년의 기상청하늘상태 초단기예보 5km 격자자료를 이용, 대상 집수역의 0600, 1500 운량(0∼10) 공간평균값을 계산하여기온감률을 추정하였다. 검증지점의 0600 기온 추정오차는 기존 기온감률을 적용한 경우 평균 ME ­0.39°C, RMSE 1.45°C 였으나, 새로운 기온감률로 변경한 결과 ME ­0.19°C, RMSE 1.32°C로 개선되었으며, 맑은 날은 ME .0.8°C에서 .0.57°C로, RMSE는 1.72°C에서 1.42°C로 감소되었고 흐린 날은 ME ­0.17°C에서 ­0.06°C, RMSE 1.16°C에서 1.01°C로 줄어들었다. 또한 1500 기온에서 기존의 단일 기온감률과 추정 기온감률의 적용결과를 비교하면 맑은 날은 기온 추정오차에 거의 차이가 없었지만, 흐린 날은 기존 ME ­0.69°C, RMSE 1.54°C에서 ME .0.51°C, RMSE 1.19°C로 개선되었다 The aim of this study was to confirm the improvement of efficiency for temperature estimation at 0600 and 1500 LST by using a simple method for estimating temperature lapse rate modulated by the amount of clouds in comparison with the case adopting the existing single temperature lapse rate (.6.5°C/km or .9°C/km). A catchment of the ‘Hadong Watermark2,’ which includes Hadong, Gurye, and Gwangyang was selected as the area for evaluating the practicality of the temperature lapse rate estimation method. The weather data of 0600 and 1500 LST at 12 weather observation sites within the catchment were collected during the entire year of 2015. Also, the ‘sky condition’ of digital forecast products of KMA in 2015 (5 × 5km lattice resolution) were overlapped with the catchment of the ‘Hadong Watermark2,’ to calculate the spatial average value within the catchment, which were used to simulate the 0600 and 1500 LST temperature lapse rate of the catchment. The estimation errors of the temperatures at 0600 LST were ME .0.39°C and RMSE 1.45°C in 2015, when applying the existing temperature lapse rate. Using the estimated temperature lapse rate, they were improved to ME .0.19°C and RMSE 1.32°C. At 1500 LST, the effect of the improvements found from the comparison between the existing temperature lapse rate and the estimated temperature lapse rate were minute, because the estimated lapse rate of clear days is not very different from the existing lapse rate. However, the estimation errors of the temperatures at 1500 LST during cloudy days were improved from ME .0.69°C, RMSE 1.54°C to ME .0.51°C, RMSE 1.19°C.

신 기후변화시나리오 RCP8.5에 근거한 복숭아 주산지 세 곳의 동해위험도 평가

김수옥 ( Soo Ock Kim ),김대준 ( Dae Jun Kim ),김진희 ( Jin Hee Kim ),윤진일 ( Jin I Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2012 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.14 No.3

This study was carried out to evaluate a possible change in freeze risk for ``Changhowon Hwangdo`` peach buds in three major peach growing areas under the future climate projected by RCP8.5 emission scenario. Mean values of the monthly temperature data for the present decade (2000s) and the future decades (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) were extracted for farm lands in Icheon, Chungju, and Yeongcheon-Gyeongsan region at a stochastic process for each decade. The daily data ere used to calculate a thermal time-based dormancy depth index which is closely related to the cold tolerance of peach buds. Combined with daily minimum temperature, dormancy depth can be used to estimate the potential risk freezing damage on peach buds. When the freeze risk was calculated daily for the winter period(from 1 N ovember to 15 March) in the present decade, Icheon and Chungju regions had high values across the whole peridd, but Yeongcheon-Gyeongsan regions had low values from mid- December to the end of January. In the future decades, the frequency of freezing damage would be reduced in all 3 regions and the reduction rate could be as high as 75 to 90% by 2080`s. However, the severe class risk (over 80% damage) will not disappear in the future and most occurrences will be limited to December to early January according to the calculation. This phenomenon might be explained by shortened cold hardiness period caused by winter warming as well as sudden cold waves resulting from the higher inter-annual climate variability projected by the RCP8.5 scenario.

기온감률의 일중 경시변화 예측 가능성

김수옥 ( Soo Ock Kim ),윤진일 ( Jin I. Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2016 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.18 No.1

경계층 내에서는 일중 시간대에 따라 기온감률의 변이가 크므로, 복잡지형의 기온분포 추정에 흔히 사용되는 표준기온감률보다 현실성 있는 매시 기온감률 추정 방법을 고안하였다. 이 방법에서는 기온 경시변동의 장기간 평균을 기준으로 하되, 표준등압면 1000- 925hPa 층위의 기온감률을 이용하여 기온감률 표준곡선을 작성하고, 여기에 매시 운량에 따라 보정된 기온감률이 모의된다. 신뢰성 검증을 위해 대관령 지역에 적용하여 10개월 간 매시 기온감률을 추정하고 그 결과를 초음파 기온프로파일러로부터 얻은 지상 500-600m 층위 실측 기온감률과 비교한 결과, ME -0.0001℃/m, RMSE 0.0024℃/m였다. 이 방법을 지상 1.5m에서 측정되는 산사면의 고도별 기온감률 추정에 적용할 수있는지 확인하기 위해 복잡지형인 ‘하동2수위표’ 표준유역의 313-401m 고도구간 매시 기온감률을 계산하였다. 해당 유역 산사면 여러 지점으로부터 실측기온을 얻어 기온감률을 구한 다음 추정값과 비교한 결과 대관령의 연직 프로파일에 비해 오차가 컸지만 하늘상태에 따른 일중 기온감률의 변동경향은 이 방법에 의해 모의할 수 있었다. Temperature lapse rate within the planetary boundary layer shows a diurnal cycle with a substantial variation. The widely-used lapse rate value for the standard atmosphere may result in unaffordable errors if used in interpolating hourly temperature in complex terrain. We propose a simple method for estimating hourly lapse rate and evaluate whether this scheme is better than the conventional method using the standard lapse rate. A standard curve for lapse rate based on the diurnal course of temperature was drawn using upper air temperature for 1000hPa and 925hPa standard pressure levels. It was modulated by the hourly sky condition (amount of clouds). In order to test the reliability of this method, hourly lapse rates for the 500-600m layer over Daegwallyeong site were estimated by this method and compared with the measured values by an ultrasonic temperature profiler. Results showed the mean error -0.0001℃/m and the root mean square error 0.0024℃/m for this vertical profile experiment. An additional experiment was carried out to test if this method is applicable for the mountain slope lapse rate. Hourly lapse rates for the 313-401m slope range in a complex watershed (‘Hadong Watermark 2’) were estimated by this method and compared with the observations. We found this method useful in describing diurnal cycle and variation of the mountain slope lapse rate over a complex terrain despite larger error compared with the vertical profile experiment.

맑은 날 한낮의 사면 기온분포와 일사 수광량 간 관계

김수옥 ( Soo Ock Kim ),윤진일 ( Jin I Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2013 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.15 No.4

소규모 집수역에서 한낮 기온의 분포와 일사수광량간 관계를 관찰하기 위해 고도 50m급 3곳, 100m급3곳, 300m급 3곳 등 9지점의 사면에 경사향을 달리하여 무인기상관측기를 설치하고 1년간 매일 1500 기온과 직전 4시간(1100-1500) 일사량자료를 수집하였다. 운량이 0인 맑은 날에 한정하여 각 지점의 사면 일사수광량을 계산하고 1500 기온과 비교하였다. 이때 각지점의 경사도(slope)와 경사향(aspect)은 30 × 30 m격자를 기준으로 반경이 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30개 격자로 평활화 하여 사용하였다. 1500 기온에 미치는 직전 4시간 일사수광량 간에는 통계적으로 유의한 회귀관계가 인정되었으며, 반경 25개 격자(750m)로 평활화한 경우 사면 기온변이의 54%를 설명할 수 있었다(y = 0.8309x + 0.0438, r2 = 0.5444). Automated weather stations were installed at 9 locations with, three different elevations, (i.e., 50m, 100m, and 300m a.s.l.) with different slope and aspect in a small watershed (50km2 area). Air temperature at 1500 LST and solar radiation accumulated for 1100-1500 LST were collected from January to December 2012. Topography of the study area was defined by a 30 × 30 m digital elevation model (DEM) grid. Accumulated solar irradiance was calculated for each location with the spatially averaged slope and aspect of surrounding circles with 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 grid cell radii, respectively. The 1500 LST air temperature from clear sky conditions with zero cloud amount was regressed to the 1100-1500 LST solar irradiance at 9 locations. We found the highest coefficient of determination (r2 = 0.544) at 25 grid cell radius and the temperature variation in this study was explained by Y = 0.8309X + 0.0438, where Y is 1500 LST temperature (in oC) and X is 1100-1500 LST accumulated solar irradiance (in MJ/m2).

기상청 동네예보의 영농활용도 증진을 위한 방안: IV. "하늘상태"를 이용한 일조시간 및 일 적산 일사량 상세화

김수옥 ( Soo Ock Kim ),윤진일 ( Jin I. Yun ) 한국농림기상학회 2015 한국농림기상학회지 Vol.17 No.4

일조시간 및 일사량은 작물생육에 중요한 기상요소 이지만 기상청 동네예보 항목에 없기 때문에 3시간간격 ‘하늘상태’를 활용하여 일조시간 및 수평면 일사량을 추정하는 방법을 고안하였다. 기상청 동네예보의 3시간 간격 ‘하늘상태’ 자료를 수집하고 전국 22개 일사관측 기상대의 동시간대 실측 운량과 비교하여 ‘하늘상태’의 4단계 격자값 ‘맑음(1)’, ‘구름조금(2)’, ‘구름많음(3)’, ‘흐림(4)’을 0부터 10까지의 운량으로 변환하였다. 22개 일사관측 기상대의 일 평균운량 0인날에 대하여 일조율을 비교하여 관측여건이 가장 좋은 3개 지점을 선정하였다. 선정된 지점의 3년치 운량과 일조시간 실측자료로부터 운량-일조시간 추정식을 도출하였으며, 이 식에 의해 추정된 일조시간값으로 Angstrom-Prescott 모형을 구동하여 수평면 일사량을 산출하였다. ‘하늘상태’ 기반으로 추정된 일조시간 및 일사량을 3 지점에서 2년간 실측자료와 비교한 결과RMSE 기준 일조시간 추정오차는 1.5~1.7 시간, 일사량추정오차는 2.5~3.0 MJ m-2 day-1 이었다. Information on sunshine duration and solar radiation are indispensable to the understanding of crop growth and development. Yet, relevant variables are not available in the Korea Meteorological Administration``s (KMA) digital forecast. We proposed the methods of estimating sunshine duration and solar radiation based on the ‘sky condition’ of digital forecast products and validated using the observed data. The sky condition values (1 for clear, 2 for partly cloudy, 3 for cloudy, and 4 for overcast) were collected from 22 weather stations at 3-hourly intervals from August 2013 to July 2015. According to the observed relationship, these data were converted to the corresponding amount of clouds on the 0 to 10 scale (0 for clear, 4 for partly cloudy, 7 for cloudy, and 10 for overcast). An equation for the cloud amount-sunshine duration conversion was derived from the 3-year observation data at three weather stations with the highest clear day sunshine ratio (i.e., Daegwallyeong, Bukgangneung, and Busan). Then, the estimated sunshine hour data were used to run the Angstrom- Prescott model which was parameterized with the long-term KMA observations, resulting in daily solar radiation for the three weather stations. Comparison of the estimated sunshine duration and solar radiation with the observed at those three stations showed that the root mean square error ranged from 1.5 to 1.7 hours for sunshine duration and from 2.5 to 3.0 MJ m-2 day-1 for solar radiation, respectively.