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조덕래 진주산업대학교 산업과학기술연구소 1996 산업과학기술연구소보 Vol.- No.3
The objective of this article is to find useful political alternatives for supply stabilization of four fruits - apple, pear, orange and persimmon. To carry out this purpose, the possibilities of market flow regulation on each fruit were analyzed. The implications of this study are as follows; During past ten years, market flow share of each fruit decreased in high-demand seson( from August to December ), and increased in low-demand season( from January to May ). But market flow share of high-demand season is so high as usual. Therefore it is possible to regulate market flow distribution still more by increasing supply quantity in low-demand season. The first political alternative of market flow regulation is alleviating harvest period. So it is very important to diversify the improved variety of each fruit and to increase R & D investment for this work. Clearing up the limit of storage facilities is the second alternative. To accomplish this work, enlargement of storage capacity and modernization of storage system is very important.
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조덕래 한국농업정책학회 2005 농업경영정책연구 Vol.32 No.1
The purpose of this article is to analyze the possibilities of production scale enlargement for dried persimmons in farm. To carry out this objective, gross receipts and farm expenses of dried persimmons for 125 farmers in Sanchung area were investigated. Included main analyzing contents are farm income rate of dried persimmons, comparing earning rate with other crops, reduction possibility of farm expenses, and potentiality of demand increase. In conclusion, the possibilities that farmers will expand production scale for dried persimmons to increase their income is very high.
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조덕래 진주산업대학교 1995 산업과학기술연구소보 Vol.- No.2
The objective of this article is to analyze the possibilities of export quantity increase for Korean fresh fruits. In order to carry out this purpose, decision factor of export quantity and world market structure for fresh fruits were analyzed. The implications of this study are as follows ; The most important work to increase export quantity is depreciating domestic fruit price because export price elasticity of fruit is large. Therefore trying to reduce all kind of cost which affect on the export price, production cost and market margin etc., is essential. Since world market size of fresh fruit is so large, it is possible enough to increase export quantity if export market by country is diversified. Therefore doubling our efforts to explore new export market is very important.
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조덕래 한국농업정책학회 2003 농업경영정책연구 Vol.30 No.2
The objective of this paper is to analyze the present market situation of dried persimmons in Korea. Included main contents are the use of dried persimmons, chief producing district, measurement of market scale, dealing standard and packing method. The result of this study has some restriction owing to insufficiency of time series data about demand and supply, price, etc. Well arranged statistical data is indispensable to carry out systematic research in relation to dried persimmons market.
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조덕래,송원근 경성대학교 산업개발연구소 2015 산업혁신연구 Vol.31 No.3
이 연구는 주요 축산물에 대하여 경제성장에 따른 수급균형 성장률을 분석하려는 목적으로 수행하였다. 이를 위하여 수요의 가격 및 소득탄력성, 생산요소별 비용 비율, 생산요소가격 변화율 등을 이용하여 수급균형 성장률함수를 추정하였다. 분석 결과 수급균형 성장률함수의 기울기 값이 모두 정(+)의 부호로 나타나 모든 품목이 성장지향형인 것으로 판단되었다. 품목별로는 기울기 값이 가장 큰 닭고기의 성장가능성이 제일 높고, 그 다음으로 성장가능성이 높은 품목은 쇠고기와 우유인 것으로 나타났다. 가장 낮은 성장가능성을 나타낸 품목은 돼지고기로서 계란보다도 낮은 수준이다. 한편 다양한 기존 연구의 탄력성을 적용하여 성장가능성의 안정적인 수준을 추정하더라도 분석 대상 품목 모두 성장지향형이라는 사실에는 변함이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 이 경우에 성장가능성이 가장 높은 품목은 우유이며, 그 다음이 쇠고기와 돼지고기로서 비슷한 수준을 나타내었다. 다만 계란과 닭고기는 비록 성장지향형이기는 하지만 최악의 경우 매우 낮은 성장에 그칠 수 있다는 점에 유의해야 한다. 수급균형 성장률함수의 기울기 값은 소비자의 소비행태 변화로 인한 탄력성 변화, 기술진보로 인한 노동비용 비율의 변화 등에 의해 큰 영향을 받는다. 그러므로 비록 지금은 성장지향형 품목이라고 하더라도 상황에 따라 부(-)의 성장형으로 전환될 품목이 나타날 가능성도 배제할 수 없다. 따라서 품목별 수급에 영향을 미치는 변수들의 변화를 반영하는 새로운 분석을 주기적으로 수행함으로써 생산자 혹은 정책입안자에게 그 정보를 제공하는 것이 중요하다. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the growth rate for livestock products under balanced demand and supply. To examine growth possibilities of livestock products, market equilibrium growth rate functions should be estimated by using own-price elasticity and income elasticity of demand, cost ratio of production factors, and variation rate of input price etc. Major results are as follows; The slopes of growth rate function of all livestock products showed positive sign. It means that all livestock products are growth oriented. Among others, chicken shows the highest growth potential, followed by beef and milk. The lowest growth potential commodity is pork, which is lower than egg. In addition, the established stable range of growth possibilities applying various elasticities from previous research show all products are also growth oriented. In this case, milk has the highest growth potential, followed by beef and pork. Even though egg and chicken are growth oriented, the growth ratio could be very low in the worst case. The slope of the growth rate function under market equilibrium varies according to variation of demand preference, cost ratio, input price etc. Therefore it is important to inform livestock farms or policy makers a periodical analysis being considered changes of these relevant variables.
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조덕래 진주산업대학교 1996 論文集 Vol.35 No.-
The objective of this study is to analyze the import demand behavior for wheat in Korea in order to provide some basic information to policy-makers and importers who are interested in the efficiency of import. In particular, this study focuses on the analysis of import demand by country under the assumption that wheat is different in quality by place of production. The analytic model used in this study to analyze import demand is the two stage estimation method. In the first stage, the total import demand functions are estimated for wheat. And the import demand functions of each country are estimated in the second stage. Major findings of this study are summarized as follows : First, the import price elasticity and the domestic production quantity elasticity of the total import demand for wheat are very low. But the domestic price elasticity and the income elasticity are relatively high. Second, the own price elasticity of American wheat is low, but cross price elasticities of import demand for other countries with respect to the American wheat price are very high. Therefore, taking notice of the price change of American wheat and diversifying importing countries are important to incease the efficiency of wheat import.
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