교원승진제도의 탈제도화 현상: 승진에 대한 교원의 인식 변화를 중심으로

신범철 한국교육행정학회 2020 敎育行政學硏究 Vol.38 No.2

The research aims to discover how the teacher promotion system, which has been around for more than 50 years, is being deinstitutionalized and discover its meaning. To this end, it was based on the sociological institutionalism and deinstitutionalization theory, which put emphasis on ‘culture, symbol, meaning’ of the system, and conducted qualitative case studies on ‘the deinstitutionalization of teacher promotion system’ with a focus on the perception in the promotion of teachers. The deinstitutionalizing of teacher promotion system has contained various meanings and symbols. To be specific, due to social and environmental changes represented by ‘worklife balance’ for an example, actors are trying to interpret the meaning of promotion in a different way from the past. In school organizations, restructuring of power was initiated due to the deinstitutionalization of the teacher promotion system, which changed the organizational climate and led to the polarization of work. This symbolizes that organizational practices are being reinstitutionalized in a different way than in the past. Based on the results and conclusions of the above research, policy suggestions related to the deinstitutionalizatin of the teacher promotion system were presented. 본 연구는 50년 이상 지속된 교원승진제도의 탈제도화 현상을 나타내고 있는 지 발견하고, 그러한 현상의 의미를 발견하는 데 목적이 있다. 이를 위해서 제도의 ‘문화, 상징, 의미’ 등을 중요시 하는 사회학적 신제도주의 관점 및 탈제도화 이론을 바탕으로 질적 사례연구를 실시하였다. 연구의 결과는 다음과 같이 나타났다. 교원승진제도의 탈제도화 현상은 두 사례학교 조직 내에서 다양한 형태로 발견되었으며 각각 교육행정학적 의미와 상징을 내포하고 있었다. 워라밸 등 사회적 환경 변화로 인해서 행위자들은 과거와는 다른 방식으로 승진을 재해석하려는 현상이 나타났으며, 이는 ‘교원승진제도’의 탈제도화라고 하기보다는 ‘승진’이라는 사회적 행위에 대한 탈제도화라는 의미를 내포하고 있었다. 학교조직에서는 교원승진제도의 탈제도화로 인해 조직 내 권력지형의 재구조화가 시작되었으며, 그로 인해서 조직풍토가 달라지고 업무의 양극화 현상 등이 나타났다. 이는 조직의 관행들이 과거와는 다른 방식으로 재제도화 되고 있음을 상징하였다. 끝으로 이와 같은 연구의 결과를 바탕으로 교원승진제도의 탈제도화 현상과 관련된 정책적 제언을 제시하였다.

환동해 주변국의 경제 성장과 발전에서 제조업의 중요성: Kaldor 법칙의 실증분석

신범철 경희대학교(국제캠퍼스) 국제지역연구원 2020 아태연구 Vol.27 No.3

This paper investigates whether or not the manufacturing sector is still important in playing the role of the engine of economic growth for countries near Korean East Sea, specifically Korea, China and Japan. By using APO databases over the period 1970-2015, it empirically examines Kaldor’s law which states correlation between GDP growth and the growth rate of manufacturing production. To do so, it controls for endogenity or simultaneity of the growth rate of the manufacturing production variable by employing two stage residual inclusion estimation procedure. It also introduces the Error Correction Model to consider the statics-dynamics paradox and cointegration relationship of non-stationary variables. Empirical results show that the growth rates of manufacturing output are positively associated with GDP growth for all three countries, regardless of different models or estimation methods. This supports Kaldor’s law implying that manufacturing sector plays the key role of economic development and growth for three countries. This implies that the long-term growth is demand-determined, rather than supply-determined, which is not consistent with the prediction of neoclassical and endogenous growth theories. Overall, the experience from the three countries near Korean East Sea tells us that the impacts of manufacturing output growth on economic growth are dependent on development stages. In earlier stage of development, the effects of manufacturing output on economic growth are larger than in later stages of development, which leads to different contribution to economic growth. 이 논문은 Kaldor의 제조업 성장엔진가설을 환동해 주변국, 즉 한국, 중국 및 일본을 대상으로 1970-2015년 기간 동안 실증·분석하였다. 이를 위해 Kaldor 모형에 신고전학파 이론의 공급 측면 성장요인을 추가한 확장모형을 추정하고 VECM(Vector Error Correction Model)을 도입하여 정태-동태 역설을 시계열기법을 활용하여 분석하였다. 분석결과, 우선 제조업 생산과 GDP, 그리고 농업 및 서비스 생산 간 공적분관계가 있는 것으로 나타나 Kaldor 모형에 VECM의 도입이 적절함을 확인해 주고 있으며 정태-동태의 역설이 완화될 수 있음을 보여주고 있다. 둘째, 제조업 생산증가율에 대한 추정계수는 모형설정이나 추정방법에 관계없이 통계적으로 유의하게 나타나 환동해 주변국가에서 지속적으로 제조업 성장엔진 가설이 지지되고 있다. 이러한 결과는 세계적인 서비스 비중의 확대에 따라 발생하는 Baumol병을 완화하기 위해 추진되는 서비스 지원정책보다 제조업 부흥정책이 일자리 창출이나 기술혁신 유발 효과가 더 크게 나타날 수 있음을 시사한다. 마지막으로 제조업 생산증가율에 대한 추정계수의 크기를 비교해 보면, 중국의 추정계수가 가장 크게 나타나고 있으며 한국, 일본의 순으로 나타나 제조업 생산의 증가율의 경제 성장 효과가 국가의 발전단계에 따라 달리 나타날 수 있음을 보이고 있다. 이는 초기발전단계의 개발도상국은 저(低)기술제조품과 소비재 생산에 특화하여 경제성장을 가속화할 수 있지만 중기발전단계에 도달할 경우, 이러한 산업의 특화만으로 충분치 않으며 자본재 및 하이텍 산업으로의 구조변화를 추구하는 산업정책이 필요함을 시사한다.

북한의 후계구도와 핵포기 가능성

신범철 한국국제정치학회 2011 한국국제정치학회 기타간행물 Vol.2011 No.4

[특집] 미중 패권경쟁의 경과와 전망

신범철 북한연구소 2020 北韓 Vol.- No.587

韓國人 橫口蓋皺壁 形態學的 硏究

申範哲,黃聖明 醫藥係社 1963 綜合 醫學 Vol.8 No.10

<권두논문> 북핵 문제의 주요 쟁점과 제언

신범철 제주평화연구원 2016 JPI 정책포럼 Vol.2016 No.9

세계자본시장 변동성이 국내 외환시장과 주식시장에 미치는 비대칭적 전이효과 분석

신범철 한국기업경영학회 2011 기업경영연구 Vol.18 No.4

이 논문은 1990년 1월 3일부터 2010년 7월 23일까지 일별 종합주가지수(KOSPI) 종가수익률과원달러 환율, 그리고 세계자본시장의 변동성 지수인 일별 VIX 지수를 이용하여 1997년 외환위기와 2008년글로벌 금융위기 전후의 변동성 전이효과를 비교하고 안전자산선호 가설에 의해 그 효과를 설명하였다. 이를 위해 2변량(bivariate) DVEC(1, 1)-GARCH 모형을 바탕으로 세계자본시장의 변동성 충격이 외환시장과 자본시장에 미치는 비대칭적 효과를 실증적으로 분석하였다. 실증결과, 우선 원달러 수익률 평균모형에서표본기간과 상관없이 전일의 종합주가수익률에 대한 추정계수가 유의하게 나타난 반면 종합주가수익률 평균모형에서는 원달러 수익률이 유의하지 않게 나타났다. 이는 원달러 수익률이 종합주가수익률의 변화를 유발하는 것이 아니라 종합주가수익률이 원달러 환율의 변화를 초래하고 있음을 의미한다. 둘째 세계자본시장의변동성은 외환위기 이전 기간 동안 원달러 수익률과 주가수익률 평균모형에서 모두 유의하지 않게 나타났지만 외환위기 이후기간과 글로벌 금융위기 기간 동안의 경우 원달러 수익률의 평균모형에서는 양의 부호로,주가수익률의 평균모형에서는 음의 부호로 모두 유의하게 나타났다. 이는 세계자본시장의 변동성이 국내시장에 미치는 효과가 외환위기 이후 자본자유화 확대와 금융시장의 개방 확대로 점증되고 있음을 반영한 결과로 볼 수 있다. 셋째 조건부 분산 모형을 보면 모든 표본기간에서 전기의 ARCH항은 양의 부호로 유의하게 나타났지만 원달러 수익률과 주가수익률 공동의 충격에 대한 추정계수는 유의하지 않게 나타났다. GARCH항 역시 하나를 제외하고 모두 통계적으로 유의하게 나타났다. 이는 외환시장과 자본시장의 자체적충격에 대해서는 영향을 미칠 수 있으나 이 두 시장 공동의 변동성 충격이 공통적으로 영향을 미치지 않는다는 것을 의미한다. 마지막으로 세계자본시장의 변동성의 확대가 외환위기 이전에는 외환수익률과 주가수익률의 변동성을 감소시키는 것으로 나타나고 있으나 외환위기 이후에는 국내 변동성을 오히려 증가시키는것으로 나타났다. 또한 세계자본시장의 변동성 확대가 외환위기와 금융위기 이후 더욱 더 크게 나타나 위기후 두 시장의 변동성이 확대되고 있음을 보여주고 있다. 이 결과는 세계경제위기 시 투자자의 안전자산선호성향이 금융위기 이후 국내 외환시장과 주가시장의 변동성을 더 확대함을 의미한다. 이러한 변동성 파급효과와 세계자본시장의 동조화 현상은 국제 자산배분의 위험분산을 무력화시킬 뿐만 아니라 국내 투자자에게도 적지 않은 위험 요인으로 작용할 수 있음을 시사한다 This paper empirically examines asymmetric spillover effects of an increase in volatility of world capital markets on Korean foreign currency and stock markets using bivariate DVEC (1, 1)-GARCH model. The data employed for the study is daily series of VIX, won per U.S. dollar exchange rate and Korean composite stock price index (KOSPI) for the period of January 2, 1990 through July 23,2010. The VIX, a barometer of investor fear, is used as a proxy for world market volatility. That is,the change in the VIX should be expected to rise at a higher rate when world market fails than when world market rises. To facilitate comparison the VIX level, minute-by-minute values were calculated using index option prices dating back to the beginning of January 1986. This is specially important because documenting the level of market fear would provide useful benchmark information in assessing the degree of turbulence in markets. First, the rates of returns on won-dollar exchange rates are found to be negatively associated with the rates on expected returns on KOSPI in all sub-sample periods. On the other hand, the estimated coefficients of the rates returns on KOSPI are not statistically significant in the mean equation of the returns on won per U.S. dollar exchange rates. These results suggest that an increase in the returns on KOSPI should cause in Granger sense a decrease in the returns on Won per U.S. dollar exchange rates but not the other way around. This implies that ʻbad newsʼ of world capital markets could asymmetrically reduce the rates of returns on Korean stock markets. Second, empirical findings show that there are asymmetric volatility spillover effects of world capital markets on Korean foreign and stock markets, specially in global market crises. This confirms evidence that stock market in emrging countries should be sensitive to information released developed capital markets. Third, the spillover effect of VIX has been increased over the period after the global crisis. This implies that the volatility spillover effect of world capital markets on Korean Stock and foreign exchange markets has became larger as Korean financial and capital markets were rapidly liberalized after Korean foreign currency crisis. Finally, an increase in world market volatility is positively associated with expected returns on won per U.S. dollar rates but negatively with those on KOSPI for the period after Korean foreign exchange crisis. This suggests that investors tend to have safe assets by reducing risky assets of emerging markets to minimize portfolio risk caused by world financial crisis.

교원정책 연구 동향 분석

신범철,이예슬,박균열 한국교원교육학회 2018 한국교원교육연구 Vol.35 No.2

이 연구는 5․31교육개혁이 시행됐던 1995년부터 2017년까지 ‘교육행정학연구’, ‘교육정치학연구’, ‘교육학연구’, ‘한국교원교육연구’, ‘한국교육’ 등의 5개 학술지에 게재된 교원정책 분야 연구 논문 352편을 종합적으로 분석하여 동향을 살펴보고 시사점을 도출하는데 목적이 있다. 분석 결과에 따르면, 연구주제 면에서 직전 단계를 주제로 한 연구보다는 현직 교원을 대상으로 한 연구들(65.34%)이 더 많은 것으로 밝혀졌으며, 주제별로는 교원평가(18.18%), 교원양성(14.77%), 교원교육(12.78%) 등등의 순으로 활발하게 연구된 것으로 분석되었다. 둘째, 시대별 연구주제 면에서 각 시기마다 집권 행정부의 선거 공약이나 주요 국정과제를 중심으로 연구주제가 편중되는 현상이 나타났다. 셋째, 연구목적 면에서 이론적 연구와 실제적 연구가 매우 불균형한 것으로 분석되었으며, 특히 실제적 연구가 326편(92.61%)으로 이론적 연구에 비해 압도적으로 많은 것으로 분석되었다. 넷째, 연구방법 면에서는 문헌연구 방법의 총량적 비중이 54%로 가장 큰 것으로 밝혀졌으나 시대의 흐름에 따라 지속적으로 감소하는 추세를 보였으며, 반대로 양적 연구 방법과 질적 연구 방법은 꾸준하게 증가하는 추세를 보이고 있었다. The purpose of this study was to analyze the trends of goals, themes and methods about researches concerning policies of teachers. In order to achieve the goal, we examined five academic journals(The journal of Korean Teacher Education, The journal of Educational Administration, Korean Journal of Educational Research, The journal of Politics of Education, The Journal of Korean Education) from the May 31, 1995 educational reform which sets a major historical inflection point for the nation's education policies to 2017 while following two steps. First, we searched studies about teachers policies from five academic journals which have keywords like ’teachers’, ’vice-principals’, ’principals’ and so on. Second, we selected 352 studies to analyze according to the five principles we set. The results of the study showed 1) that 65.34% of the studies were about inservice teacher’s policy and researches about ‘teacher evaluation(18.18%)’, ‘teacher training for preliminary teachers(14.77%)’, and ‘inservie teachers education(12.78%)’ are actively studied, 2) that themes of researches are concentrated at the campaign promises and major national tasks of the administration at each time, 3) that most of the studies were done for practical reasons in order to analyze the current state of policy implementation and suggest improvement plans, and 4) the most common analysis method was the literature review, but it showed a tendency to decrease continuously according to the trend of the times. On the contrary, the use of quantitative and qualitative research methods is increasing steadily.

韓·日 少靑年期의 身體發達과 生活習慣에 대한 實態比較硏究

申範澈 韓國體育大學校附屬 體育科學硏究所 1992 韓國體育大學校附屬 體育科學硏究所論文集 Vol.11 No.1

Based upon the research method and design, performed research results were as follows: 1. Physique dimension 1) In the case of men's physique development, the itemized age that the Korea presented predominantly from 7 age to 17 age compared to the Japan was in the whole means from 16 age in she chest. girth and from 7 age in the sitting height. However female demonstrated a little predominant. tendency that the height, was from 15 age, the chest girth was at 16 age, and the sitting height was after 15 age. 2) The peak age of maximum growth and development showed that. male and female of both Korea and Japan were at 15 age and 13 age in height separately. Both the Korean male and the Japanese female were ac 15 age in body weight,. In the chest. girth, male and female were at 15 age in body weight. In the chest, girth, male and female were at. 16 age and 14 age, i respectively. Both male and fernale were at 15 age in the sitting height. 3) The maximum growth amount presented between 2- 3 years of age ago consisted of the peak of growth and development of height, body weight, chest girth, and sitting height. 2. Motor performance dimension By the number fifteen, enacted by the Ministry of Education in 1951, it. was difficult for the Korea to compare differences between Korea and Japan on the motor performance and physical fit.ness of the boy and youth, because of changing of the eleimination and admition of investigation items over several times and the modification of investigation term and evaluation method at management post in 1962, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1979, 1980, 1983, and 1989 individually, together with beginning the 10 items of school physical investigation. It was also hard for the Korea to consider obtained data as statistical index, expecially because the author can not make international comparison, the author need to acquire the selection of investigation items and the institutional drafting tinged with coherence. 1) In the chinning exercises of the arms' physical strength test, the Korean male predominated from 12 age to 17 age appoximately mean. 5-2 times compared to the Japanese male. The Japan decreased from 1990. The Korean female executed horizontal hold chining, whereas the Japanese female enforced horizontal hold slightly crooked pulling, which consists of time and frequency. Therefore, these data can not, be compared to each other . but it was thought that the Korea presented a rapid increase values at 14 age (17.9 sec), which may be attributed to either the testing point or the miscalculation of data arrangement. 2) In the throwing performance test, the Korea changed items, such as stick throwing (300g), ball throwing (300g), hand hombthrowing (weight, differences among elementary -middle-high school), ba11 throwing (plastic product, of soft ball magnitude). Because there was different magnitude and weight of instrument in both male and female, the author can not make chronological transition and comparison between internations. However in the Korean-Japanese age, development transit,ion from 12 age to 17 age in male was similar to each other, female presented greatly the width of development. amount at 14 age. 3) In run performance, inasmuch as the Korea had the test. results of 50m run and 100m run at 10-11 age and 12-17 age separately, the longitudinal and cross flute comparison can not be made. However in the developmental transition of both Korea and Japan, according to aging in male, the record was gradually reduced, whereas female decreased gradually after she set the most. record. 4) In the long running of endurance test, since there were differences of gender, elementary-middle-high school, and distance, separately in Korea, the cross transverse comparison can not, be performed, whereas because the Japanese male and female was 1500m and 1000m respectively, the only high school period can be compared to each other. The Japanese male and female showed the most. record at 14 age. 5) In the run item of power test, the Korea changed the term running broad jump and standing jump. The Japan executed the running broard jump, whereas the Korea performed the standing broard jjump. the Korean male and female showed in the broard jump the improvement values ranged from mean 10cm to 15cm between each ages at 10-17 age. The Japanese male was mean 20-35cm; female improved at range mean 1O-20cm, especially both male and frmale demonstrated the sudden increase from 10-13 age, they tended to become dull from 14 age. 3. Life habits 1) In exercise hours, the Japanese male and female had lots of exercise hous (p<.001) when they were in the elementary school period compared to the Korean male and female. in middle and high school, the Korea was a litt1e much or similar to each other, male had more exercise hours than female. 2) In studying hours, the male of the Japanese-elementary-middle-high school presented the percentage of lots of hours (P<.001) compared to the Korean male. The Japanese female showed more the percentage of slightly much hours in elementary and high school period than the Korea, the Japanese female showed much more learning hours than the Korea in middle school period (jp(.001). 3) In a campus registration, it was presented that. both male and female of the Korean-elementary-middle-high schools rcgistereed and tooks a course beyond twice more than did japan (p <.001 ). 4) In a sleeping hours, the Korean male and female was apt. to be almost similar to the the Japanese male and female. In an exercise preference degree, the Korean male was slightly higher than or similar to the Japanese maie. The Korean female presented more or less higher proportion than the Japanese female. 5) The Korean male spent. in elementary-middle-high schools more hours of watching T.V than the Japanese male (p<.001). The Korean female was apt to be slightly higher than The Japanese female. 6) In a breakfast, ail of the Korean-Japanese male and female ranked much the same proportion. In a snack, they were much the same, but. the Korean female demonstrated slightly higher percentage than the Japanese female. 7) In confidence regarding physical fitness, the Korean male was lower in middle school period than the Japanese male (p< .001). 8) In perseverance, all the korean male and female were slightly lower in elementary-middle-high schools than the Japanese male and female; japanese female of elementary school was slightly heigher than the Korean female; but the Korean female ranked more or less higher in amiddle and high scnool period than the Japanese female.

생산요소 분류와 이동성 크기에 따른 한ㅁ미 FTA의 경제효과 비교ㅁ분석

신범철 경기대학교 한국산업경제연구소 2008 産業硏究 Vol.22 No.1