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- 저자 : ( Sylvain Bouyon ) (검색결과 2 건)
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Currency Substitution and Central Bank Independence in the Central and Eastern European Economies
( Sylvain Bouyon ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2009 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.24 No.4
This paper examines the extent to which the confrontation between the authorities implementing the monetary policy and the private agents asking for foreign currencies can influence the global process of currency substitution. The choice of an appropriate monetary policy depends on an original timeinconsistency problem where a partly-independent and conservative central bank is faced with a type of monetary targeting. The motives of the private agents in asking for foreign currencies are precautionary and/or speculative. We obtain the optimal growth of the aggregate in foreign currencies, which negatively depends on transparency, central bank credibility and inflation instability of the economy linked with the currency, and positively on inflation instability of the domestic economy. Then, we propose different measures of these determinants and we econometrically test this optimum in the economies of Central and Eastern Europe. The results are consistent with empirical literature on the macroeconomic determinants of dollarization. However, in this paper, the complexity of currency substitution is better illustrated and an empirical approach in relation to the institutional determinants of currency substitution is provided.
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Policy Options for European Household Saving
( Sylvain Bouyon ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2016 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.31 No.1
The purpose of this paper is to monitor the household saving to conduct appropriate macroeconomic policies aiming at a balanced economic recovery in the EU-15. Taking saving rates approach, which places emphasis on the household saving to disposable income ratios, consistently significant β -convergence was observed since 2007 in the European Union, indicating that the need for balance sheet repair was stronger for countries with low pre-crisis saving rates. The absence of correlation between saving ratios and different types of saving yields suggests the poor transmission of monetary policies in the trade-off between consumption and saving. Households seem to disregard interest rates and inflation when they decide on consumption and saving plans. Conversely, the results confirm the prominent role played by the precautionary motives during the financial crisis of 2008~2009, which is reflected in the strong impact of unemployment rates and housing prices. In order to monitor household saving, regulators should place further focus on financial education and should remain vigilant regarding unemployment and housing price developments. To a certain extent, policies that are better aligned at European level to monitor household saving should contribute to converging saving ratios, hereby reinforcing macroeconomic stability and integration in the European Union.
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