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- 저자 : ( Nicholas Hamisevicz ) (검색결과 2 건)
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The Prospects for Economic Reform in North Korea after Kim Jong-il and the China Factor
Troy Stangarone,Nicholas Hamisevicz 통일연구원 2011 International journal of korean unification studie Vol.20 No.2
In recent years, it has become clear that China is the most important external partner for North Korea. Total trade with China represented 32.7 percent of North Korea’s trade in 2003, and in four short years grew to 67.1 percent, excluding inter-Korean trade. China during its economic growth has tried to encourage North Korea to undertake a similar path of economic reform. Nearly every time Kim Jong-il has visited China, Chinese government leaders have made statements demonstrating China’s support for North Korea’s economic reform. Moreover, Chinese officials often try to highlight their economic successes to Kim Jong-il when he visits China. Often, Kim Jong-il made statements suggesting North Korea would reform, especially through Special Economic Zones, following these trips. Yet real economic reform and success has yet to be seen in North Korea. Interestingly, as North Korea’s relationship with China has grown closer in recent years, North Korea has also taken steps to build relationships with other partners. Kim Jong-il visited Russia in 2011 to discuss economic projects. But among Pyongyang’s top trading partners, Russia only breaks into the top ten on the import side as North Korea’s fifth largest import partner in 2010. Overall, North Korea has more trade with Egypt and Brazil than Russia, and almost as much with Mexico. North Korea also did around $50 million in trade with Germany, from whom it imported machinery to make wine and press fruit, while exporting apparel. Ultimately, only North Korea can determine the direction of its economic development. Provocations against South Korea have hurt inter-Korean trade, limiting this option of economic interaction. North Korea still restrains itself from fully engaging in Chinese-style reforms though the passing of Kim Jong-il may open opportunities for greater economic change. Moreover, despite its outreach to other countries like Russia, Egypt, and Brazil, North Korea still needs more trade and financial engagement with other countries to fully develop in the dynamic global economy. In recent years, it has become clear that China is the most important external partner for North Korea. Total trade with China represented 32.7 percent of North Korea’s trade in 2003, and in four short years grew to 67.1 percent, excluding inter-Korean trade. China during its economic growth has tried to encourage North Korea to undertake a similar path of economic reform. Nearly every time Kim Jong-il has visited China, Chinese government leaders have made statements demonstrating China’s support for North Korea’s economic reform. Moreover, Chinese officials often try to highlight their economic successes to Kim Jong-il when he visits China. Often, Kim Jong-il made statements suggesting North Korea would reform, especially through Special Economic Zones, following these trips. Yet real economic reform and success has yet to be seen in North Korea. Interestingly, as North Korea’s relationship with China has grown closer in recent years, North Korea has also taken steps to build relationships with other partners. Kim Jong-il visited Russia in 2011 to discuss economic projects. But among Pyongyang’s top trading partners, Russia only breaks into the top ten on the import side as North Korea’s fifth largest import partner in 2010. Overall, North Korea has more trade with Egypt and Brazil than Russia, and almost as much with Mexico. North Korea also did around $50 million in trade with Germany, from whom it imported machinery to make wine and press fruit, while exporting apparel. Ultimately, only North Korea can determine the direction of its economic development. Provocations against South Korea have hurt inter-Korean trade, limiting this option of economic interaction. North Korea still restrains itself from fully engaging in Chinese-style reforms though the passing of Kim Jong-il may open opportunities for greater economic change. Moreover, despite its outreach to other countries like Russia, Egypt, and Brazil, North Korea still needs more trade and financial engagement with other countries to fully develop in the dynamic global economy.
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