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( Manuel Cantavella Jorda ),( Celestino Suarez Burguet ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 1998 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.13 No.4
This paper examines the long-run and short- run effects of depreciation/devaluation for major European Union countries (Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Italy) over the 1975-1997 period. The approach is based on cointegration techniques proposed by Johansen [1988] and uses quarterly data. The empirical results indicate the existence of a positive relationship between the exchange rate and the trade balance for each country although long-run effects are rather moderate. According to the short- run analysis, there is a finding of a J-curve for Italy and the United Kingdom. The costs of relinquishing individual exchange rates may be rather small for major EU countries. (JEL Classification: F31, F41)