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The Estimation of Breast Cancer Disease-Probability by Difference of Individual Susceptibility
Sue Kyung Park,Keun-YoungYoo,DaeHeeKang,Sei-HyunAhn,Dong-YoungNoh,Kuk-JinChoe 대한암학회 2003 Cancer Research and Treatment Vol.35 No.1
Purpose: The aims were to evaluate the main riskfactors (RFs) of breast cancer and to estimate the individualdisease-probability from combinations of RFs inKorean female.Materials and Methods: We conducted case-controlstudy of 1,687 incident cases of invasive carcinoma and1,238 controls during 1996∼2000. A breast cancer disease-probability model was established by a generalmodeling process using a multivariate logistic regressionmodel, which included the main Korean RFs and synergisticinteraction-terms.Results: The main Korean RFs selected were age,family history of second relatives, BMI, age at first fulltermpregnancy, breast-feeding, and a special test on thebreasts. Two synergisms were observed between age andbreast-feeding, and between special test and age at firstfullterm pregnancy. The disease-probability and modelare shown in Table 4, and Appendix 1.Conclusion: The availability of previous Western modelswas limited for Korean female due to the differencesinhazard-rates and the characteristics of breast cancerbetween Asian and Western females. Due to limited basicdata, i.e. incidence, hazard-rate and cancer-cohorts, thedeveloping-probability of breast cancer for Korean femaleswas not calculated. Therefore, the disease-probabilitywas calculated instead. This approach might bemore beneficial for Koreans, and help in the decisionmakingfor regular screening or hospital visit-interval,counseling in breast-cancer clinics, prescribing high-riskpopulation, and in educating for primary prevention, althoughit over-estimates the relative probability comparedto the developing-probability and the 65% predictivevalidity. (Cancer Res Treat. 2003;35:35-51)