Sensitivity of FAO-Penman-Monteith Reference Evapotranspiration to Climate Variables

( Ahmad Mirza Junaid ),( Kyung Sook Choi ) 한국농공학회 2016 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2016 No.-

Sensitivity analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) is essential to determine the expected fluctuations of ET_o in response to a known change in a specific climate variable. This study analyzed the sensitivity of ET_o to maximum temperature (T_max), minimum temperature (T_min), relative humidity (RH), wind speed (u₂), and sunshine hours (n) for command area of Upper Chenab Canal in Punjab, Pakistan. FAO-Penman-Monteith (FAO-PM) equation was used to estimate ET_o by using a weather data set of 32-years from 1980-2012. Long term average value of each climate variable was varied with in a possible range of -20% to +20% with an interval of 5% and resulting ET_o variations were plotted as sensitivity curves. ET_o showed maximum response to change in T_max followed by n, T_min, u₂ and RH. Dimension less sensitivity coefficients were also derived for each climate variable to mathematically define the sensitivity of ET_o. Sensitivity coefficients of n and T_max were highest showing that their influence on ET_o variations would be maximum. Sensitivity coefficients of RH were negative showing that ET_o would decrease as RH increase and vice versa. In general, ET_o showed more sensitivity to climate variability in summer season. The influence of T_max, n and T_min was higher during summer months whereas influence of u2 and RH was higher during winter months. Results suggests that in context of latest warming trends caused by global warming, atmospheric evaporative demands of study area could rise drastically which would be a challenging situation for future agricultural water management.

Variations in Water Requirements of Wheat-Rice Cropping System based on Climate Change in Punjab, Pakistan

( Ahmad Mirza Junaid ),( Kyung Sook Choi ) 한국농공학회 2016 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2016 No.-

This study explored the possible variations in crop evapotranspiration (ET_c) and irrigation water requirement (IWR) for wheat-rice cropping system of Upper Chenab Canal (UCC) in Punjab province of Pakistan. First, most influential climatic variable responsible for variation in reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) was determined by conducting a sensitivity analysis. A 32 year (1980-2012) weather data set obtained from Pakistan Meterological Department was used for the analysis. Temperature was found to be the most influential climatic variable for ET_o variations. Hypothetical future scenarios were then designed based on temperature rise of 1-3℃ with 1℃ interval and rainfall variations based on 80%, 50% and 20% probability of occurence ( dry, normal and wet). CROPWAT model was used to simulate the ET_c and IWR under average and scenario based climatic conditions. Average ET_c for wheat and rice were 342 mm and 580 mm. Results showed that as a result of temperature rise, ET_c for both crops would increase in the range of 2.31%-7.50%. At +3℃ temperature rise, wheat showed 7.5% and rice showed 7% increase in ET_c as compared to average values. Results also showed that under dry rainfall conditions IWR could rise up to 31% and 34% for wheat and rice. Monthly analysis showed that March & April and August & September were the months with maximum IWR for wheat and rice respectively.

Estimation of Crop Water Requirement and Comparison with Available Irrigation Water Supply

( Ahmad Mirza Junaid ),( M. Arshad ),( Kyung Sook Choi ) 한국농공학회 2015 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2015 No.-

The study was conducted on the irrigation area of Nokhar Branch belong to Upper Chenab Canal (UCC) System, Punjab province of Pakistan. The objectives of the study were 1) to generate image map of the land use in UCC system, 2) to determine the irrigation requirements for different crop and 3) to compare the irrigation requirements with water supply from UCC system. The study period was from November 2010 to October 2011 comprising two cropping seasons including spring and autumn. MODIS 250m NDVI time series data were downloaded from NASA website (https://wist.echo.nasa.govlapii). ERDAS imagine model and ArcGIS tools were used for processing of NDVI images. CROPWAT model was applied to estimate the irrigation requirements within the study area on the basis of different crop fields. The estimated irrigation area of Nokhar Branch from the RS image process was 161,054.4 acres which shows 86% of accuracy compared to the official map. The total water supplied to irrigation system of Nokhar Branch for the study area, in which the major crops were wheat and rice, was 376.36 million m³(MCM). The actual irrigation water for crops was estimated to be 206.994 MCM after subtracting conveyance losses of 45% total water supplied. The estimated total volume of water required in autumn and spring seasons were 150.46 MCM and 603.29 MCM respectively. The maximum water requirement of water was observed 220 MCM from June in autumn season and 144 MCM from September in spring season. The comparison between the available water supplied from UCC system and the estimated water demand was shown that the deficit of irrigation water was up to 60% through the study period.

Spatial variations in COVID-19 risk perception and coping mechanism in Pakistan

Irfan Ahmad Rana,Saad Saleem Bhatti,Junaid Ahmad,Atif Bilal Aslam,Ali Jamshed 대한공간정보학회 2023 Spatial Information Research Vol.31 No.3

The outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization, which instigated governments to impose lockdowns across their countries. Amidst the lockdown in Pakistan, this study comprised measures of the COVID-19 risk perception, coping mechanism, and spatial variations. The data from 40 selected indicators was collected using an online questionnaire and grouped into domains (4 risk perception and 3 coping mechanisms domains). The results revealed the spatial variations and the levels of risk perception and coping mechanisms within the study area. Relative to each other, overall risk perception was highest in Northern Areas (Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir) and Islamabad, and lowest in Balochistan province. Very little spatial variation was observed in terms of coping mechanisms. Age, gender, and marital status influenced the risk perception associated with COVID-19. The findings suggest spatial variation in risk perception, implying the need for localized and modified COVID-19 risk communication and risk reduction strategies.

현재 기후 및 농업환경 변화를 반영한 농업용수 공급능 취약성 평가

미르자주네이드아흐메드 ( Mirza Junaid Ahmad ),조건호 ( Gun-hocho ),최경숙 ( Kyung-sook Choi ) 한국농공학회 2021 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2021 No.-

파키스탄 푼잡지역 지속가능한 미래 밀생산 및 물생산성을 위한 기후제한요소

미르자주나이드아흐마드 ( Mirza Junaid Ahmad ),조건호 ( Cho Gun-ho ),이슬기 ( Lee Seulgi ),김상현 ( Kim Sang-hyun ),최경숙 ( Choi Kyung-sook ) 한국농공학회 2019 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2019 No.-

Pakistan’s food security conditions are worsening because of population explosion, gradually but consistently creeping water scarcity across agricultural lands due to hostile climate change trends and rampant incidents of droughts and floods. Wheat is the primary dietary staple for masses in Pakistan and the country’s wheat production system is under constant stress to produce more to meet the rapidly growing domestic needs. In this work, negative climate change impacts on wheat yield and water productivity (WP) were examined for the semi-arid conditions of largest agricultural province of Punjab, Pakistan; by the end of 2080 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios: 4.5 and 8.5. FAO developed AquaCrop model v 5.0 simulated the future wheat yield and associated WP trends. Three types of WPs including yield per unit of water lost as evapotranspiration (WPET), yield per unit of irrigation water applied (WP_Irr) and yield per unit of total water input (WP_{Tot_Water}) were estimated. Future climate warming of 1 - 3℃ and 2 - 5℃ caused the wheat yield declines in the order of 11 - 15% and 14 - 20% under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, by the end of 2080. Climate warming also accelerated the crop growth process and cut short the average growth spans by 7 - 12 days and 10 - 20 days during the 2030s (2021 - 2050) and 2060s (2051 - 208), respectively. The three WPs also declined in future, without considering the CO₂ enrichment effects, despite a clear decrease in crop evapotranspiration rates caused by a shortened growth span. WPET, WP_Irr and WP_{Tot_Water} reduced by 4 - 20% and 13 - 20%; 7 - 22% and 18 - 24% and 22 - 25% and 22 - 29% under RCP 4.5 and the RCP 8.5, respectively. The results suggested that higher CO₂ concentrations could help maintain the current yield and WPs levels during the 2030s, but it might not withhold the negative yield trends during the 2060s. Although, CO₂ enrichment effect showed promises to counteract the adverse climate change impacts the interactions between climate warming and CO₂ concentrations were uncertain and required further examination.

파키스탄 중앙 편자브지역의 밀 수확량과 물발자국에 미치는 기후변화 영향 예측

미르자주나이드아흐메드 ( Mirza Junaid Ahmad ),최경숙 ( Kyung Sook Choi ) 한국농공학회 2017 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2017 No.-

The most likely detrimental impacts of climate change are anticipated to reshape the agricultural water demand and supply patterns, therefore the assessment of climate change on crop water footprints will be essential. In this, study the impacts of changing climate, as emulated by a range of global circulation climate (GCMs) models ensemble, were explored for the yield and water footprints of wheat production system of Punjab, Pakistan. The FAO developed Aquacrop v 5.0 yield simulation model was calibrated and validated by exploiting the crop phenology data retrieved from the field experiments conducted during 2004-2010 at a representative site located in the district Faisalabad, Punjab, Pakistan. The model’s simulation performance was quite satisfactory despite the fact that limited field data were available for the model calibration. The bias-corrected, statistically-downscaled climate projections from the 9 GCMs were integrated with the calibrated Aquacrop model to project the wheat yields and associated water footprints for the two future time slices: 2030s (2021-2050) and 2060s (2051-2080), under the two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. All the GCMs depicted a noticeable warming and drying future climate especially during the second half of this century. Under the worst, most likely future scenario of temperature rise and rainfall reduction, the wheat yield decreased and water footprint, especially blue, increased, owing to the elevated irrigation demands originating from the accelerated evapotranspiration rates. A probable increase in rainfall as envisaged by some GCMs may partly mitigate the adverse impacts of the temperature rise but the higher uncertainties associated with the predicated rainfall patterns is worth considering before reaching a final conclusion. The total water footprints were continuously increasing implying that future climate would profoundly influence the crop evapotranspiration demands and more water would be required for wheat production. The future wheat production was predicted to be more irrigation or blue water dependent, since the contribution of rainfall or green water would be much lower. The results highlighted the significance of the availability of the irrigation water in order to sustain and improve the wheat production in the study area.

Effect of Purity on Maximum Likelihood Quantum State Tomography

Syed Tihaam Ahmad,Ahmad Farooq,Junaid ur Rehman,Hyundong Shin 한국통신학회 2021 한국통신학회 학술대회논문집 Vol.2021 No.6

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is the most practised method for estimating the density matrix associated with a quantum state. However, the efficiency of MLE commensurate with the purity of the given quantum state. We show the estimation of mixed quantum state is more precise than the pure quantum state using the MLE algorithm.

기후변화 예측에 기반한 전례없는 비정상 기후에 대한 미래 위험 전망

미르자주네이드아흐메드 ( Mirza Junaid Ahmad ),최경숙 ( Kyung-sook Choi ) 한국농공학회 2022 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2022 No.-

Climate warming is inducing unprecedented spatio-temporal detrimental trends in the frequency and magnitude of climatic extreme events; threatening human health, socioeconomic stability, and well-being of natural and built environments. The severity of climate extreme impacts is expected to enhance human exposure (growing population and development) and vulnerability (ageing infrastructure, fragile food production systems) to future climate warming. In this study, we used a 3 5-year (1975-2010) daily climate data set of temperature and rainfall from 50 weather stations spread across South Korea to statistically bias-correct the projections from 25 global climate models. Daily data were used to derive 25 climate extremes based on maximum/minimum temperature and rainfall during the baseline (1975- 2010) and two future time slices (2030-2065 and 2066-2100) under the representative concentration and shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. Agriculturally relevant climate extremes such as the number of hot days, duration of dry spells, monsoon rainfall intensity, etc. showed significantly increasing trends during the baseline and future time slices. Anomalous temperature and rainfall conditions were projected to occur concurrently and frequently, with a high likelihood of warming and drying during the rice transplanting period (May-June) followed by intense monsoon rainfall (July-August). The results showed that considering the current urbanization and industrial development, population exposure to extremely hot, dry/wet extremes would increase significantly in the future. Study findings could contribute to the development and implementation of mitigation and adaptation plans concerning the climate change threat to various aspects of society.

기후변화 예측에 기반한 전례없는 비정상 기후에 대한 미래 위험 전망

미르자주네이드아흐메드 ( Mirza Junaid Ahmad ),최경숙 ( Kyung-sook Choi ) 한국농공학회 2022 한국농공학회 학술대회초록집 Vol.2022 No.-

Climate warming is inducing unprecedented spatio-temporal detrimental trends in the frequency and magnitude of climatic extreme events; threatening human health, socioeconomic stability, and well-being of natural and built environments. The severity of climate extreme impacts is expected to enhance human exposure (growing population and development) and vulnerability (ageing infrastructure, fragile food production systems) to future climate warming. In this study, we used a 3 5-year (1975-2010) daily climate data set of temperature and rainfall from 50 weather stations spread across South Korea to statistically bias-correct the projections from 25 global climate models. Daily data were used to derive 25 climate extremes based on maximum/minimum temperature and rainfall during the baseline (1975- 2010) and two future time slices (2030-2065 and 2066-2100) under the representative concentration and shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. Agriculturally relevant climate extremes such as the number of hot days, duration of dry spells, monsoon rainfall intensity, etc. showed significantly increasing trends during the baseline and future time slices. Anomalous temperature and rainfall conditions were projected to occur concurrently and frequently, with a high likelihood of warming and drying during the rice transplanting period (May-June) followed by intense monsoon rainfall (July-August). The results showed that considering the current urbanization and industrial development, population exposure to extremely hot, dry/wet extremes would increase significantly in the future. Study findings could contribute to the development and implementation of mitigation and adaptation plans concerning the climate change threat to various aspects of society.