이란의 핵-미사일 프로그램에 대한 국제적 대응과 JCPOA 이행 계획

정상률 ( Jung Sang Ryul ) 한국외국어대학교 글로벌정치연구소 2016 글로벌정치연구 Vol.9 No.2

2015년 7월 14일, P5+1(중, 프, 러, 미, 영, 독)과 이란은 이란핵 무제 해결에 합의했다. 이란핵 협상 합의서인 `포괄적 공동행동계획`(JCPOA: Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action)의 주요 내용은 `이란이 핵무기 개발을 포기하고 오직 평화적 목적을 위해서만 핵프로그램 및 핵에너지 권한을 갖는 대신에 이란이 핵 활동을 억제하는 것을 IAEA가 검증하면 미국 및 서구 국가들은 이란에 대한 경제제재를 해제한다`는 것이다. 본 논문은 이란 핵 위기에 대한 국제사회의 대응, 협상 결과물인 JCPOA의 주요 내용과 이행 계획, JCPOA에 대한 주요 국가행위자들의 반응을 중심으로 논한다. 본 논문은 특정 이론에 기반하여 작성하지 않고, 역사적, 서술적 방법으로 작성되었다. 이란 핵 위기에 대한 국제사회의 대응과 협상 결과인 JCPOA의 주요 내용 및 이행 등에 대한 연구를 통해서 우리의 최대 현안인 북핵문제에 주는 함의 및 `북한 핵 위기` 해소 방안을 찾고, 한반도와 동북아 정세의 안정적 변화 방안을 찾는데 하나의 아이디어를 제공해 줄 수 있다는 점에서 의미가 있다. On July 14, 2015, the P5+1(China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States), the European Union, and Iran reached a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action(JCPOA), known commonly as Iran nuclear deal, to ensure that If Iran advances nuclear program for only peaceful use, and the United States and the EU would lift nuclear-related sanctions on Iran. October 18, 2015 marked Adoption Day of the JCPOA, the date on which the JCPOA came into effect and participants began taking steps necessary to implement their JCPOA commitments. This article would provide us with one of the several nuclear deal cases. So, this article focuses on responses of international society to Iranian nuclear-missile crises, the process of Iranian nuclear deal, the main contents of JCPOA and its implementation plan, the responses of international society to JCPOA. This paper was written with historical, descriptive method. The implications for this paper are in providing an idea of solution plan of north Korean nuclear crisis, in looking into ways of stable transition of Northeast Asian international situations.

카타르의 금융정책 분석

정상률(Jung, Sang-Ryul),김중관(Kim, Joong-Kwan) 명지대학교 중동문제연구소 2012 중동문제연구 Vol.11 No.4

Qatar is using its fiscal space, generated from an increase in hydrocarbon production and high prices, to implement a large public spending program to maintain strong growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector in the medium term and improving living standards. Headline inflation remains subdued, but inflation risks have risen somewhat due to a permanent increase in public sector wages, which underscores the need for fiscal policy to monitor aggregate demand and the central bank to manage liquidity. The banking sector remains profitable and strong with a capital adequacy ratio of 22.3 percent, average return on assets of 2.7 percent, and non-performing loans ratio of 2.3 percent at end-June 2011. The non-financial corporations are also in an expansionary phase–profits are at pre-crisis levels, cash is abundant, default rates are low, and financing conditions remain easy. The central bank should monitor its growth and stand ready to use macro prudential instruments to prevent the building up of excessive risks. Closing regulatory gaps in the financial system and continuing with efforts to develop the domestic bond market are needed to further strengthen financial stability while developing the financial system. Further improvements in statistics will be essential, which will also require greater coordination between sectors. A cap on remunerated deposits of QCB and successive reduction in policy deposit rates proved successful in driving out short-term arbitrage funds that were intermediated through the banking system. Issuance of government bonds and sukuk coinciding with the imposition of the cap on central bank deposits, and issuance of treasury bills in lieu of central bank certificates of deposit facilitated the mopping up of structural liquidity from the banking system over a longer period, while shifting the cost from the central bank’s balance sheet to the government.

일반논문 : 이슬람 국가론: 이란 울라마 통치론을 중심으로

정상률 ( Sang Ryul Jung ) 한국외국어대학교 글로벌정치연구소 2014 글로벌정치연구 Vol.7 No.1

1970년대에 미국을 비롯한 서구 자본주의 경제가 새로운 공황으로 접어들면서 ‘자본주의 국가(Capitalist State)’에 대한 논쟁이 부상했었다. 2008년에 시작된 미국발 모기지론 (mortgage loan)으로 촉발된 세계 금융-산업 위기와 그 이후 인구에 회자되고 있는 유럽몇몇 국가의 경제위기는 또 다시 ‘자본주의 국가’에 대한 논쟁을 증폭시킬 것으로 예측된다. 1979년 이란 이슬람혁명으로 구축된 (시아) 이란이슬람공화국, 2001년 사우디아라비아 출신 오사마 빈 라덴과 이집트 출신 아이만 자와히리가 주도한 9.11 테러로 크게 부상한 알 카에다 등 정치이슬람 세력들의 궁극적 목표인 이슬람국가 건설 시도, 최근 이슬람 수니파 극단주의 무장단체인 ‘이라크·레반트 이슬람국가’(ISIL, The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant)의 ‘칼리파 국가(이슬람국가) 선포’ 등으로 인해서 ‘이슬람국가’에 대한 학문적 관심이 크게 부상했다. ‘(이슬람주의) 테러와의 전쟁’ 시기에 ‘이슬람국가’에 대한 이해의 필요성이 증대되고 있다고 판단되며, 이 논문은 그러한 의미에서 국가론 연구 영역을 확장하는데 일정 역할을 할 것으로 판단된다. 이란은 1979년 호메이니의 이슬람 혁명의 결과 울라마 통치론, 즉 이슬람국가를 건설 했다. 이슬람국가는 샤리아(이슬람법), 즉 코란과 하디스에 기반한 국가이다. 이란은 울라마 통치론과 현대 3권 분립의 민주주의를 결합한 특이한 형태의 정치체제를 구축했다. 최고지도자가 정치, 종교 최고지도자이고 국가 원수이며, 국내외 정책의 최종 결정자이다. (시아)이슬람국가인 이란이슬람공화국에 대한 이해는 국가론의 연구 영역을 확대할 뿐 아니라, 우리의 대 이란 정책의 기반을 제공할 것이다. There has been constant controversy concerning ‘capitalist state’ since many scholars had perceived the crisis of capitalist economy in America and western Europe in 1970s`. The crisis of mortgage loan in America in 2008 and European economy in 2011 will re-raised controversy concerning ‘capitalist state.’ The same as this circumstance, controversy concerning ‘Islamic state’ has been generated in the end of 1970s` and re-generated in 2000s` as the result of 9.11 terror and ``war of terror.`` The new religious leaders of Iran has built the government of Ulama ruling and Islamic state just since Islamic revolution in 1979. Islamic state is the state based on Sharia(Islamic law), in other words Koran and Hadith. The political system of Iran is exceptional one mixed the government of Ulama ruling and separation of power. Supreme religious leader is the ruler(head) of state and highest decision maker in decision making process of the domestic and foreign policy. I think that this paper will enlarge on the state theory including capitalist state, green state, peace state and the like, and provide the basis to our decision making to Iran.

알-마와르디의 ｢알-아흐캄｣에 나타난 칼리파제론 연구

정상률(Jung, Sang-Ryul) 명지대학교 중동문제연구소 2014 중동문제연구 Vol.13 No.4

This paper reviews Al-Aḥkām al-Sulṭāniyya that Māwardī wrote about the Imamate in the 11th century. Most of the political Islam groups, including IS (Islamic State), have attempted to build a Caliphate(Imamate), that is, an Islamic state. We need to understand what a Caliphate (Imamate) is, that Islamic political philosophers and political Islamic groups have desired to set up for a long time. Māwardī wrote Al-Aḥkām al-Sulṭāniyya in the 11th century when the Abbasid Caliphs’political and religious authority was completely lost. He wanted to restore an Imamate political and religious system. He explains a method of succession in which an Imam can be appointed by his predecessor or be elected by the election council composed of 1 - 6 electors. Māwardī adduced several methods of appointment and election in Al-Aḥkām al-Sulṭāniyya. The Imamate that Mawardi finally proposed was a kind of‘Divine Right of Imamate,’ and it was a theocracy. I think that IS’s Caliphate will be an Islamic theocracy. This means that the state characteristic of IS’s Caliphate is Islamic, in other words, an Islamization of the state.

Post-ArabSpring 시기 중동 패권분쟁과 평화: 패권안정론에 대한 비판적 시각

정상률 ( Jung Sang-ryul ) 한국외국어대학교 중동연구소 2019 중동연구 Vol.38 No.1

In the 1970s when the hegemony of the US was declining considerably, some neo-realist scholars emphasized the necessity of maintaining the supremacy of the United States, and they created the hegemonic stability theory. Therefore, the hegemonic stability theory is an expression of Americanism, a kind of American centrism. However, structuralist scholars and liberal scholars have criticized the hegemonic stability theory. The hegemonic stability theory has been criticized because of the ambiguity of the ‘hegemony’ concept, the problems of the theoretical composition of this theory, ideological bias, and neglecting the connectivity between domestic class-social structure-state within each nation-state and international relations. This article is based on the question of whether the hegemonic stability theory that ‘the existence of hegemon stabilizes the system’ properly explains the instability factors in the Middle East area in the era of Post-ArabSpring. This paper also emphasizes that the competition of hegemony of the three major actors in the Middle East - the United States, which is recognized as a hegemonic state in the Middle East, Shiite central state, Iran which is judged to seeks hegemony in the Middle East, and the Sunni group IS, which has pursued supremacy beyond the Middle East - is an instability factor of the Middle East international order.

마크디시의 살라피즘과 IS의 살라피 지하디즘

정상률(Jung, Sangryul) 한국이슬람학회 2016 한국이슬람학회논총 Vol.26 No.1

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, present leader of IS(Islamic State), declared on June 29, 2014 that Khilafah returned(The Return of Khilafah). IS has been built on Salafism, state ideology by Salafism Jihadists. The first founder of IS is Abū Mus’ab az-Zarqāwī that founded <Jama'at al-Tawhid wa-al-Jihad>(Society for Monotheism and Jihad) in 1999. Al-Zarqāwī was a petty criminal and an alcoholic, but he became a Salafism jihadist since he met Abu Muhammad Aasim al-Maqdisi in prison in 1990’s. Both of al-Maqdisi and al-Zarqāwī were born in Nablus in West Bank, so they felt brotherhood to each other much more. Especially, al-Zarqāwī has fallen under the influence of Al-Maqdisi. Al-Zarqāwī became a Salafism jihadist by influence of Al-Maqdisi’s Salafism. Al-Maqdisi has been one of the Salafism jihadists that follows pious Predecessors, as-Salaf as-Saleh and that strenuously insists that have to follow the robust belief of the early Muslims including Muhammad, the Companions(Sahabah), the Followers(Tabi‘un), the Followers of the Followers(Tabi‘ al-Tabi‘in)that provided Muslim the epitome of Islamic practice. In this paper, author reviewed Salafism in Islamic history, exchange of Salafism thought and Salafism ideology between two person, and then analyzed al-Maqdisi’s Salafism showing in Millat Ibrahim, al-Maqdisi’s work. In conclusion, the author of this paper insists that al-Maqdisi’s Salafism thought had a great effect on formation of al-Zarqāwī’s violent Salafist jihadism, and al-Zarqāwī’s Salafist jihadism has become a basic ideology of IS building. Al-Zarqāwī’s Salafist jihadism has become a violent ideology, has showed a seditious act of violence to world citizens. Present IS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is an extremist standing on Salafist jihadism.

America First와 Dar al-Islam 간 중동 패권 경쟁과 중동평화

정상률(Jung, Sang-Ryul) 한국중동학회 2019 韓國 中東 學會 論叢 Vol.39 No.3

America First policy of the Trump government and Dar al-Islam of Iran and IS are ideologies and policies based on a dichotomous philosophy. These two ideologies and policies are clashing politically, economically and militarily in the Middle East. Within Dar al-Islam, there is a conflict between Iran, the Shia state, and IS, Sunni political Islamic group. This phenomenon is not explained as a clash of civilization nor is it explained by the struggle of ideology between capitalism and communism in the Cold War. In this paper, I argue that the collision between A.F, which is the expression of American centrism since the Trump administration took place in the United States, and Dar al-Islam, is not a clash of civilizations based on religion, nor a conflict between capitalism and communism. Maybe, it is a kind of conflict of interest. Therefore, it is still a rash judgment to interpret the clashes in the Middle East as the new Cold War of the Middle East . America First and Dar al-Islam are a kind of extremism, and a dispute in the Middle East that such extremism exists is inevitable. Peace in the Middle East will be determined by the decline of extremism.

샤리아의 배교죄와 인권

정상률(Jung Sang Ryul) 한국중동학회 2018 韓國 中東 學會 論叢 Vol.38 No.3

This paper discusses execution and the problem of punishment for the apostasy of Saudi Arabia in the context of human rights. Islamic states such as Saudi Arabia and Iran are subject to various punishments such as death penalty(beheading, dialysis ....), flagellation(lashing), confinement, amputation of hand and foot, exile, exhortation, social isolation and fines. The issue of human rights is raised for several punishments such as dialysis, flagellation (lashing), and amputation of hand and foot. The United Nations ‘Universal Declaration of Human Rights’ and International human rights organizations such as Amnesty International are demanding the abolition of the death penalty, and in particular, punishment for the sins of apostasy (including death, imprisonment, flagellation and lashing). The criticism of the punishment for apostate sins is also intensifying. Saudi Arabia is an Islamic state with the Koran and Hadith as constitution, and although there are not many cases, the execution of apostasy in Saudi Arabia has received much criticism. Recently, Saudi Arabia is undergoing major political changes. There seems to be a tendency for changes in the level of human rights during political changes. However, it is still skeptical whether a big change in relation to punishment for apostasy will come.

이라크 부족주의 연구 - 사담 시대 정치 엘리트와 신부족주의 관계를 중심으로 : 이라크 부족주의 연구

정상률(Jung Sang-Ryul) 한국중동학회 2006 韓國 中東 學會 論叢 Vol.27 No.1

Tribes and tribalism of Middle East are becoming new research area and issue area because of role enlargement of major tribes in the Middle Eastern States. Tribe and tribalism in the Middle East has been an historical entity and core of political, economic, and cultural action norm for a long time. But the role of tribe and tribalism was being declining in the process of nation-state building. As soon as it came to power in July 1968, the Bath Party announced in its Communique No.1 its rejection of "tribalism." ""We are against religious sectarianism, racism, and tribalism."" In later years, too, in official party ideology tribal shaikhs and tribalism have been regarded as the epitome of backwardness and social reaction. This policy to the tribalism has been continued in Saddam era since 1987. But anti-tribalism policy was changed in the late 1980s or in the early 1990s. The reason was that because Saddam"s regime faced in crisis of legitimacy not only in Arab society but also from outside world. Especially there was shii Intifada, anti-Saddam regime movement in the south Iraq in 1991. Saddam"s tribalism policy was centered on his tribe, the Albu Nasir tribe and some major tribes, the Dulaym tribal confederation, the Shammar tribal confederation, the al-Juburi tribal confederation, the Ubaydis tribal confederation, the Azza tribal confederation, the Takrit tribal confederation. Albu Nasir tribe is composed of core of power and other major tribes the first one of several circles of power. What is the meaning of study of tribalism? First, we have to consider tribe as the political actor in the Middle East, especially in Iraq because tribe is the entity in political process of Iraq. Second, We can ask following; what"s the status of tribe in state-society relations in Iraq? Is the tribe a part of state or a part of society in historical changing era? In Saddam era after 1990, there is the trend of statization of tribe or tribalization of state in Iraq. Third, there is dispute about "the character of state" of Iraq. Is the state of Iraq tribal state, or capitalist state(or state in capitalist society), or bureaucratic authoritative state, or Islamic state, rentier state? These dispute is very important issue in social science, especially political science. Fourth, we have to consider about the trend of political, social, economic change after 2003 Iraq war as social scientist. The study of every social scientist of Middle East, therefore, will be centered on the tribe or tribalism.

이라크 종교엘리트와 부족주의 관계 연구 - 사담시대 정치시아주의를 중심으로

정상률(Jung Sang-Ryul) 한국중동학회 2007 韓國 中東 學會 論叢 Vol.28 No.1

  Tribes and tribalism of Middle East are becoming new research area and issue area because of role enlargement of major tribes in the Middle Eastern States. Tribe and tribalism in the Middle East has been an historical entity and core of political, economic, and cultural action norm for a long time.<BR>  Political Shi"ism in Iraq was a movement group to resist Baath regime but not anti-Arab nationalist. Because Arab political Shi"ists were alienated from Baath regime in political, economic, social area. Arab political Shi"ists have double identity, Arabs-Iraqi-Shi"ists. The leaders of political Shi"ism were not born in a specific family and tribe, but grown in religious environment of specific family. They have not given emphasis tribal value, but religious value and democratic participation in decision making process.<BR>  After Iraq nation-state building, especially in the Saddam regime era, al-Sadr family and al-Hakim family have been the leader"s families in political Shi"ism. So I think that there is some relation between religious elite and tribe. But these Shi"a religious elites didn"t emphasize tribal value. I think, therefore, that there is Iraqi Shi"a religious elite family or tribe, but there is no meaning relation between religious elite and tribalism.