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ADF를 사용한 유전프로그래밍 기반 비선형 회귀분석 기법 개선 및 풍속 예보 보정 응용
오승철(Seungchul Oh),서기성(Kisung Seo) 대한전기학회 2015 전기학회논문지 Vol.64 No.12
A linear regression is widely used for prediction problem, but it is hard to manage an irregular nature of nonlinear system. Although nonlinear regression methods have been adopted, most of them are only fit to low and limited structure problem with small number of independent variables. However, real-world problem, such as weather prediction required complex nonlinear regression with large number of variables. GP(Genetic Programming) based evolutionary nonlinear regression method is an efficient approach to attach the challenging problem. This paper introduces the improvement of an GP based nonlinear regression method using ADF(Automatically Defined Function). It is believed ADFs allow the evolution of modular solutions and, consequently, improve the performance of the GP technique. The suggested ADF based GP nonlinear regression methods are compared with UM, MLR, and previous GP method for 3 days prediction of wind speed using MOS(Model Output Statistics) for partial South Korean regions. The UM and KLAPS data of 2007-2009, 2011-2013 years are used for experimentation.
External Gelation 방법을 이용한 구형 UO<sub>3</sub> Gel 입자 제조
정경채,김연구,오승철,조문성,이영우,장종화,Jeong, KyungChai,Kim, YeonKu,Oh, SeungChul,Cho, Moon-Sung,Lee, YoungWoo,Chang, JongWha 한국세라믹학회 2005 한국세라믹학회지 Vol.42 No.11
HTGR (High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor) is spotlighted to next generation nuclear power plant for producing the clean hydrogen gas and the electricity. In this study, the spherical $UO_3$ gel particles were prepared by the external gelation process, and the characteristics of these particles were analyzed the particle shape, composition of precipitate, and thermal decomposition characteristics with the Streoscope, FT-IR, and X-ray diffractometer. Raw material of the ADUN (Acid Deficient Uranyl Nitrate) solution, which has [$NO_3$]/[U] mole ratio = 1.75, was obtained from dissolution of the $U_{3}O_{8}$ powder with concentrated $HNO_3$, and its concentration is 3.5 M-U/l. The broth solution is prepared with the ADUN, urea, PVA, and THFA solution. The droplets of the broth solution was made through a nozzle system. From this study, we obtained the following results; 1) an externel chemical gelation process is a suitable method in the spherical $UO_3$ particle production, 2) the particle shape are changed by an urea mixing time, THFA volume, and the viscosity of the broth solution, 3) the amorphous $UO_3$ particles obtained from these experiments was converted to $U_{3}O_{8}$ and then $UO_2$ by heat treatment in hydrogen atmosphere at $600^{\circ}C$.
김준봉(Junbong Kim),오승철(Seungchul Oh),서기성(Kisung Seo) 대한전기학회 2016 전기학회논문지 Vol.65 No.5
Wind speed is heavily fluctuated and quite local than other weather elements. It is difficult to improve the accuracy of prediction only in a numerical prediction model. An MOS (Model Output Statistics) technique is used to correct the systematic errors of the model using a statistical data analysis. The Most of previous MOS has used a linear regression model for weather prediction, but it is hard to manage an irregular nature of prediction of wind speed. In order to solve the problem, a nonlinear regression method using SVR (Support Vector Regression) is introduced for a development of MOS for wind speed prediction. Experiments are performed for KLAPS (Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) re-analysis data from 2007 to 2013 year for Jeju Island and Busan area in South Korea. The MLR and SVR based linear and nonlinear methods are compared to each other for prediction accuracy of wind speed. Also, the comparison experiments are executed for the variation in the number of UM elements.