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서종석,김현중 전남대학교 사회과학연구소 2000 현대사회과학연구 Vol.11 No.1
The broiler price has been unstable because of the chicken market combined with the development of breeding technique. This paper aims to explain the characteristic and cause of the price change and forecasts a future price by using ARIMA model to offer basic information to relieve price instability and establish forwarding plans. The broiler price showed a decreasing tendency and the high range of fluctuation in the long term These were the main reasons of increased of imports and the economic crisis after 1997. The main reasons of price fluctuation were the unstable supply caused broiler disease, development of broiler breeding technique and unstable consumption before 1997. The estimated time series model that expresses characteristic of broiler price well was AR(11) model. The broiler price was predicted by the year 2001 and it was found that the price would be highest in July and lowest in November
서종석,조규대,강혜정,김재욱 한국농업경제학회 2011 農業經濟硏究 Vol.52 No.5
Korean government has increased investment on farm education to strengthen competitiveness of agricultural sector in response to trade liberalization. Without any scientific evidence, however, there has been a criticism that the investment seems not to efficiently increase farm income. Therefore, the relation between farm education and farm income has been an urgent and important question to policy markers. This article examines the issue using 856 survey data to find a strong empirical evidence that farm education has acted an important role in increasing farm income. Moreover, the study finds that the effect of farm education is multifarious by income levels and education programs, which implies that well-designed education programs may increase farm income substantially.
원화의 평가절하가 주요농산물의 소비 , 재고 , 수출입 , 가격에 미치는 영향
서종석 전남대학교 사회과학연구소 1999 현대사회과학연구 Vol.10 No.1
This paper analyzes the effects of exchange rate movement of Korean won on its agriculture. Korean won depreciated by about 30% between the period of October, 1997 and October, 1998. It was estimated that this would improve agricultural trade balance by 613 million dollars, while deteriorate the terms of trade for agricultural products by 10.2%. Structural model was estimated to get the effects on the consumption, inventory, trade, production, and prices. The import prices of beef and corn were estimated to rise by 158 won and 81 won, respectively, and the export price of pork to down by 19 won when Korean won depreciates by 30%. In the meantime, the consumption of beef and corn were estimated to increase by 82 thousand tons and 2,213 thousand tons, while the imports were estimated to reduce 47 thousand tons and 2,304 thousand tons. The consumption of pork will increase by 63 thousand tons while the inventory will decrease by 281 thousand tons. The size of long-run effect for these three items were smaller than that of short-run effects.
서종석 全南大學校 農業科學技術硏究所 1999 農業科學技術硏究 Vol.34 No.-
This paper analyzes the current situation of agribusinesses in the suburban Kwangju, especially for the South District, and seeks an appropriate policy to forster them. Agribusiness is an industry which is developing rapidly in recent years. Of the agribusiness, food processing, raw material production, and agricultural marketing are the industries in which the farmers and farmers' organization can make suitable profits. For the South District of Kwangju the promising businesses for farmers and farmers' organization are found to be flour (rice, pumpkin, and red pepper), juice (fruit, dropwort), raw material for production (for radish, buckchoy, red pepper),and seedling.