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김태후 ( Taehoo Kim ),김성섭 ( Seongsup Kim ),서상택 ( Sangtaek Seo ) 한국농업경제학회 2017 農業經濟硏究 Vol.58 No.1
The objective of this study is to suggest an alternative of the current farmer insurance program by adjusting coverage levels for each insurance provision without the increase in the premium. In order to adjust farmer insurance coverage levels, “What-If” analysis with Monte-Carlo simulations and nonlinear optimization was conducted. Empirical insurance data with seven years(2009-2015) were used to perform the “What-If” analysis. The results show that if the death and disability payments of type 2 and type 3 were fixed to type 1, farmers could receive the adjusted off-work benefits of 2.37 and 3.73 times on average compared to the current the off-work benefits without the increase in premium. This adjusted off-work benefits for man(woman) is calculated as 67(105)% for type 2, 99(159)% for type 3 compared to the off-work benefits of the worker`s compensation insurance(agricultural sector). This implies that the enhancement of off-work benefits could help farmers to manage more stable farming.
김태후 ( Taehoo Kim ),서상택 ( Sangtaek Seo ),박문수 ( Moonsoo Park ),정민국 ( Min-kook Jeong ) 한국농업정책학회 2012 농업경영정책연구 Vol.39 No.1
The price of fresh meats have been severely fluctuated with the increased incidents caused by livestock diseases in these days. Many consumers suffered from unfavorable economic condition recognize the price fluctuation of fresh meats as a main source of the increase in general price. However, the general price are affected by the interaction of all products within an economic system. This study aims to examine the effect of a price change in fresh meats on the general price level and consumer price index (CPI) using Input-Output (IO) model that shows the interaction among industries in a country. The results show that the price change in fresh meats has a limited effect on the general price level and CPI. In addition, its effects are trivial compared to that of public sector.
스튜던트 T 코퓰라 모델을 이용한 지역별 쌀 생산량의 공간적 종속성 추정
김태후 ( Taehoo Kim ),김성섭 ( Seongsup Kim ),서상택 ( Sangtaek Seo ) 한국농업경제학회 2017 KOREAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS(KJAT) Vol.58 No.3
This study aims to estimate spatial dependence for rice production yield among eight provinces in South Korea. Student’s T copula is used to estimate the spatial dependence and tail dependence. Yearly historical rice production yield data(1960-2016) for eight provinces are de-trended and normalized as year 2016 to estimate spatial dependence and tail dependence. The result shows that rice production yields for most provinces are strongly correlated to each other. Also, tail dependence shows a strong relationship for each other except some provinces. This implies that crop insurance programs should be partly supported by government due to the possibility of high systemic risk. In addition, regional production yield risk modelling imposing the spatial dependence is proper than an unified aggregate risk modelling.
김태영(Taeyoung Kim),김윤형(Yoonhyung Kim),김태후(Taehoo Kim),유찬희(Chanhee Rhew) 한국농식품정책학회 2022 한국농식품정책학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2022 No.8
This study aims at empirically shading light on economic impact of ‘Farmers’ Allowance’, a newly emerging type of direct income support scheme. The analysis was carried out through two steps: 1) recipient farms’ consumption patter has been investigated taking into account demographic characteristics, 2) then the estimated consumption changes have been integrated with Input-Output Table to estimate the scheme’s economic effects. The results indicates that the benefit-cost ratio is as large as 1.95, and that the scheme is anticipated to provide 12,705 job opportunities. Put together, the legitimacy of implementing the scheme may be underpinned grounded on its contribution for invigorating local economies.
김성섭(Kim, Seongsup),김태후(Kim, Taehoo),서상택(Seo, Sangtaek) 한국농식품정책학회 2020 농업경영정책연구 Vol.47 No.2
This study sets up a Bonus-Malus System (BMS) in Korean crop insurance to resolve a double loaded penalty in current BMS. The BMS in this study adopts the model suggested by Frangos and Vrontos (2001) with Bayes’ theorem, where initial premium rate is determined by prior distribution but is updated with the loss experience by individual farmers with lapse of time. The concept of fairness suggested by Heras, Vilar and Gil (2002) is adopted to support the BMS developed. For the study, crop insurance data including premium, indemnity and frequency of occurrence provided by NH Property & Casualty Insurance Corporation (the insurer) are used. Among the crops insured only apple and pear are chosen because the two crops have the longest history of crop insurance and ranks the highest insured rate during the program period.
목재펠릿시스템의 대체투자 가능성 분석 - 시설과채 사례 -
김성섭(Seongsup Kim),김태후(Taehoo Kim),서상택(Sangtaek Seo) 한국농촌지도학회 2018 농촌지도와 개발 Vol.25 No.3
This study aim ed to analyze the replacem ent investm ent of the diesel fuel system w ith the pallet fuel system in the Korean farm ing sector. Equivalent annual annuity approach w as used to resolve a discrepancy of useful life in capital goods and to facilitate investm ent analyses in an independent perspective. D ata w as obtained from previous studies on econom ic analysis of greenhouse tom ato, paprika and cucum ber. Results show ed that the replacem ent w ith the pallet fuel system w as acceptable irrespective of the rem aining period of useful life for the diesel fuel system . In addition, sensitivity analysis w ith governm ent support level, repair cost, and light and heat energy cost show ed robustness in the possibility of replacem ent w ith the pallet fuel system w hile the speed of replacem ent w as accelerated w ith an increase in the am ount of diesel fuel used and price of diesel fuel, and a decrease in price of the pallet fuel. The result im plied that the replacem ent investm ent rather than a new investm ent w as appropriate for existing greenhouse farm ers and the pallet fuel system w as acceptable to replace existing diesel fuel system in producing greenhouse tom ato, paprika and cucum ber.