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Trade Liberalisation and Poverty Dynamics in Vietnam
( L. Alan Winters ),( Yoko Niimi ),( Puja Vasudeva Dutta ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2007 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.22 No.4
This paper explores the poverty impact of Vietnam`s trade liberalisation over the 1990s and asks how well they could have been predicted from prior data. We identify policy changes and their major effects on trade and prices. We then seek the effects of these changes in a panel comprising 4,302 households observed in 1993 and 1998. Using a multinomial logit model, we find evidence that trade liberalisation influenced household poverty status and that considering trade effects would help to identify winners and losers a priori. We also find evidence that trade liberalisation reduced poverty substantially over the period 1993-1998.
Relaxing the Restrictions on the Temporary Movement of Natural Persons: A Simulation Analysis
( L. Alan Winters ),( Terrie L. Walmsley ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 (구 세종대학교 국제경제연구소) 2005 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.20 No.4
While the liberalisation of trade has been at the forefront of the global agenda for many decades, the movement of natural persons remains heavily guarded. Nevertheless restrictions on the movement of natural persons across regions impose a cost on developing and developed economies that far exceeds that of trade restrictions on goods. This paper uses a global CGE model to investigate the extent of these costs, by examining the effects of an increase in developed countries` quotas on both skilled and unskilled temporary labour equivalent to 3% of their labour forces. The results confirm that restrictions on the movement of natural persons impose significant costs on nearly all countries (over $150 billion in all), and that those on unskilled labour are more burdensome than those on skilled labour.
Transport Costs and "Natural" Integration in Mercosur
Amjadi, Azita,Winters, L. Alan 세종대학교 국제경제연구소 1999 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.14 No.4
The paper explores the argument that trade between the Mercosur countries should be stimulated by preferential policies because of their geographic proximity. That is, that the Mercosur countries are candidates for "natural" intergration. The paper finds that, on average, transportation margins on trade within Mercosur and between Mercosur and Chile are about 6 percentage points lower than on trade with the rest of the world. That is a significant margin, and one that was reflected in the countries' trade patterns even before regional trade agreements reduced the policy-based barriers to mutual trade. But it is probably not large enough, in and of itself (without other benefits), to make the introduction of trade preferences desirable. The paper also explores the argument that absolutely high transportation costs between Mercosur and the rest of the world (that is, not relative to intra-Mercosur costs) justify regional trade preferences. For this to apply the introduction of trade preferences must cause the Mercousur countries to cease importing some goods from the rest of the world completely. While Mercosur-rest-of-the-world transport costs certainly are high, trade patterns suggest that very few goods will cease to be imported from the rest of the world. (JEL-Classifications: F15, R40)
Transport Costs and "Natural" Integration in Mercosur
( Azita Amjadi ),( L. Alan Winters ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 1999 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.14 No.4
The paper explores the argument that trade between the Mercosur countries should be stimulated by preferential policies because of their geographic proximity. That is, that the Mercosur countries are candidates for "natural" integration. The paper finds that, on average, transportation margins on trade within Mercosur and between Mercosur and Chile are about 6 percentage points lower than on trade with the rest of the world. That is a significant margin, and one that was reflected in the countries` trade patterns even before regional trade agreements reduced the policy-based barriers to mutual trade. But it is probably not large enough, in and of itself (without other benefits), to make the introduction of trade preferences desirable. The paper also explores the argument that absolutely high transportation costs between Mercosur and the rest of the world (that is, not relative to intra-Mercosur costs) justify regional trade preferences. For this to apply the introduction of trade preferences must cause the Mercosur countries to cease importing some goods from the rest of the world completely. While Mercosur---rest-of-the-world transport costs certainly are high, trade patterns suggest that very few goods will cease to be imported from the rest of the world. (JEL- Classifications: F15, R40)
Why Is Open Regionalism Not Always Good?
( Wai Heng Loke ),( L. Alan Winters ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 2012 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.27 No.3
When the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) formally adopted the principle of "open regionalism" (OR) in its trade liberalization in 1991, many were optimistic that this approach suggested the bloc as a stepping stone toward global free trade. This optimistic view was reinforced by the economic theorizing of Sang-Seung Yi (1996). This paper shows formally via a simple model why OR may fail. We unpick Yi (1996) systematically and explain that OR works in his model because of quasilinear preferences and Ricardian technology assumptions. Once these assumptions are replaced with constant elasticity of substitution (CES) preferences and increasing marginal costs, OR fails to ensure global free trade as an equilibrium when the world consists of a country that is sufficiently larger than the rest of the world.
Price and Quality Effects of VERs Revisited : A Case Study of Korean Footwear Exports
Melo, Jaime de,Winters, L, Alan 세종대학교 국제경제연구소 1993 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.8 No.1
This paper analyzes the price and quality effects of VERs on Korean footwear exports, applying index numbers to disaggregated Korean footwear exports during the period 1974-86. Unlike previous studies of upgrading that have relied on analyses of imports to the restricted markets, this paper compares restrained exporter's sales to different markets, thereby providing a more accurate test of theoretical predictions. We find significant price increases to the restricted markets and mild across the board downgrading during the period when the VERs were binding.
Articles : Price and Quality Effects of VERs Revisited: A Case Study of Korean Footwear Exports
( Jaime De Melo ),( L. Alan Winters ) 세종대학교 경제통합연구소 1993 Journal of Economic Integration Vol.8 No.1
This paper analyzes the price and quality effects of VERs on Korean footwear exports, applying index numbers to disaggregated Korean footwear exports during the period 1974-86. Unlike previous studies of upgrading that have relied on analyses of imports to the restricted markets. this paper compares restrained exporter`s sales to different markets, thereby providing a more accurate test of theoretical predictions. We find significant price increases to the restricted markets and mild across the board downgrading during the period when the VERs were binding.