대규모 재건축 아파트 단지의 가격변화 영향 요인 연구 : 정태 및 동태적 모형의 계층적 분석을 중심으로 = Determinants of Price Fluctuations in Large-Scale Apartment Redevelopment Projects: A Hierarchical Analysis Using Static and Dynamic Models

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Large-scale apartment complexes, intensively supplied during South Korea's modern urbanization process, are currently facing a critical point of physical and functional decline after 30 to 40 years since their completion. Accordingly, the housing policy paradigm is shifting from a focus on new supply to maintenance and regeneration aimed at restoring existing urban functions. While the asset value of general housing depreciates as physical aging progresses, apartments targeted for reconstruction exhibit a paradoxical and dynamic price formation structure; as aging deepens, the expected future value of converting to a newly built apartment increases, thereby driving up the price. In particular, mega-scale reconstruction complexes with more than 2,300 units function as powerful pricing leaders and anchor prices within the local real estate market, exerting a profound ripple effect on value formation and the supply-demand structure of the neighboring housing market.
However, the recent reconstruction market is exposed to complex macroeconomic and policy uncertainties, including prolonged high interest rates, surging construction costs due to global supply chain instability, the restitution of excess reconstruction profits, and issues concerning members' contribution fees. Under such an environment where exogenous shocks and endogenous expectations intersect, identifying the price determination mechanism of reconstruction apartments from a single perspective has its limitations. Therefore, this study aims to identify the impact of micro-level complex characteristics and the macroeconomic environment on the prices of reconstruction apartments, targeting 23 mega-scale reconstruction complexes （over 2,300 units） located in major autonomous districts in Seoul （e.g., Gangnam 3-gu, Nowon/Dobong/Gangbuk, Mapo/Yongsan/Seongdong） and the 1st generation new towns in the Gyeonggi area. Furthermore, it aims to econometrically identify the pure treatment effect of project progress.
As a theoretical background, this study is grounded in the Hedonic Price Model, which views housing as a combination of various individual attributes, while integrating Real Options Theory and Information ＆ Behavioral Economics to reflect the distinctiveness of reconstruction assets. A reconstruction apartment is defined as a complex asset combining the current residential use value and the call option value of converting into a future newly built asset. In addition, the study adopts the theoretical framework that in a real estate market characterized by extreme information asymmetry, the progress of administrative requirements such as 'passing the safety diagnosis' acts as a strong signal to market participants, and behavioral economic mechanisms like loss aversion and anchoring effects induce downward price rigidity and dynamic price increases.
For the empirical analysis, 37,550 individual transaction data collected over 60 quarters from Q1 2011 to Q4 2025 were utilized, and a Dual Approach was adopted to ensure the robustness of the analysis. At the individual transaction level, a hedonic regression analysis applying two-way clustered robust standard errors was conducted. For the complex-quarter panel data, advanced stepwise identification strategies were employed, including Pooled OLS, Random and Fixed Effects models, System GMM, Two-Way Fixed Effects （TWFE） model, and Event Study.
The main empirical analysis results of this study are as follows. First, the analysis of the micro-pricing structure strongly confirmed a positive （+） effect where prices rise as the elapsed years （age） increase. This proves that in the reconstruction market, aging is not a simple indicator of depreciation, but is capitalized as a signal of future value that increases the probability of securing project rights. Additionally, accessibility to the Gangnam central business district and the land share per household acted as core locational and business profitability premiums that drive up prices.
Second, by controlling for both the unobservable time-invariant characteristics of individual complexes （location, school district, brand, etc.） and macroeconomic common shocks （interest rate changes, macroeconomic cycles, etc.） through the TWFE model, the completion of the administrative procedure of 'passing the safety diagnosis' was identified to purely increase the apartment price per square meter by approximately 10.2%.
Third, the System GMM analysis confirmed that reconstruction apartment prices in Seoul and the metropolitan area possess strong path dependency, relying heavily on the price information of the previous quarter. Moreover, the Event Study analysis showed no significant difference in price trends prior to passing the safety diagnosis, satisfying the parallel trends assumption; however, the market began to react immediately right after the passage （t=0）, exhibiting a non-linear capitalization pattern where the effect gradually accumulated over the subsequent +2 quarters.
Fourth, the integrated analysis of macroeconomic and supply-demand variables, such as Bank of Korea interest rate fluctuations, GDP growth rate, and housing supply performance, confirmed that a significant portion of the reconstruction premium is strongly linked to and adjusted by the macroeconomic liquidity environment and the housing business cycle.
This study provides the following academic and policy implications. Academically, it is significant in that it overcomes the limitations of the existing hedonic model, which remained confined to static factors in explaining reconstruction apartment prices, and multi-dimensionally proves dynamic inertia, option value, and administrative signaling effects using panel econometric techniques. From a policy and practical perspective, it implies that reconstruction-related licensing and administrative procedures act as 'strong financial signals' that fluctuate massive capital values in the market, rather than simply being physical deregulations. Therefore, when designing reconstruction regulations and support systems, policymakers must approach them meticulously as macroeconomic expectation management tools, adjusting the timing and speed of policy announcements to prevent market expectations from overheating （over-shooting） at once.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서론 1
• 제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적 1
• 1. 연구의 배경 1
• 2. 연구의 목적 4
• 제2절 연구의 범위 및 방법 5
• 1. 연구의 범위 5
• 2. 연구의 방법 6
• 제3절 연구의 내용 및 체계 7
• 1. 연구의 구성 및 내용 7
• 2. 연구의 체계 9
• 제2장 이론적 고찰 및 선행 연구 검토 10
• 제1절 아파트 시장의 거래 및 가격 동향 10
• 1. 국내 아파트 거래 현황 10
• 2. 최근 아파트 매매 가격 동향 12
• 제2절 서울 및 수도권 아파트 재건축 시장 현황 18
• 1. 서울 및 수도권 재건축 시장의 최근 흐름과 지역별 특성 18
• 2. 재건축 시장의 가격 변화와 사업 단계별 특성 22
• 3. 공사비 상승과 정책 변화에 따른 시장 여건 24
• 제3절 주택재건축 사업 개념에 대한 이론적 고찰 25
• 1. 재건축 사업의 물리적 환경 25
• 2. 재건축 사업의 권리 주체 28
• 3. 재건축사업의 재무적 용어 고찰 29
• 제4절 부동산 시장의 가격결정 이론 30
• 1. 공간 지대 이론과 위치의 경제적 가치 형성 과정 31
• 2. 부동산 가격과 헤도닉 모형 36
• 3. 자산 시장 접근법 및 실물옵션 이론 44
• 4. 정보 및 행동경제학 이론 50
• 제5절 선행 연구 검토 및 연구의 차별성 63
• 1. 주택가격 결정 구조 관련 선행 연구 63
• 2. 재건축 아파트 가격과 실물옵션 관련 선행 연구 72
• 3. 부동산 가격결정 선행 연구 81
• 4. 본 연구의 차별성 89
• 제3장 연구설계 및 방법론 92
• 제1절 연구가설 및 모형 92
• 1. 연구가설 93
• 2. 연구모형 98
• 제2절 분석의 개요 및 표본 특성 99
• 1. 분석의 개요 99
• 2. 분석 대상 및 표본 특성 100
• 3. 변수의 정의 및 측정 101
• 4. 분석 절차 105
• 제3절 실증 모형의 이론적 고찰 및 적용 108
• 1. 개별 거래 분석 모형（헤도닉 가격 모형） 108
• 2. 합동 OLS 모형 111
• 3. 확률 효과 모형과 고정 효과 모형의 비교 선택 111
• 4. 동적 패널 모형（System GMM） 113
• 5. 이원 고정 효과 모형（TWFE） 115
• 6. Event Study 모형 116
• 제4장 분석 결과 118
• 제1절 기초 자료 및 분석 결과 118
• 1. 이자율과 아파트 매매 가격 지수 추이 118
• 2. 서울 및 경기 지역의 주택 공급 변동 추이 119
• 3. 기술 통계량 121
• 4. 상관관계 분석 결과 124
• 제2절 다중회귀모형 분석 결과 128
• 1. 헤도닉 가격 모형 경과년수 기준 분석 결과 128
• 2. 헤도닉 가격 모형 진행단계 기준 분석 결과 132
• 제3절 패널 모형 분석 결과 136
• 1. 패널 기술 통계량 136
• 2. 합동 OLS 모형 분석 결과 139
• 3. 확률 효과 모형과 고정 효과 모형 비교 144
• 4. 동적 패널 모형（System GMM） 분석 결과 149
• 5. 이원 고정 효과 모형 및 Event Study 분석 결과 153
• 6. 분석 결과 종합 요약 및 비교 157
• 제5장 결론 162
• 제1절 연구 결과의 요약 162
• 제2절 시사점 및 향후 연구 방향 165
• 1. 학술적 시사점 165
• 2. 정책적·실무적 시사점 166
• 3. 연구의 한계 및 향후 연구 방향 167
• 참고문헌 168
• 부록 184
• ABSTRACT 189