1995년 地方選擧와 1996년 總選擧의 比較硏究 : 政黨別 投票成向을 中心으로 Citizens' Voting Propensity To Each Political Party = A Comparative Study On 1995 Local Autonomy and 1996 Natiuonal Election

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

There may be some difficulties in comparing 1995 Local Election and 1996 National Election in that the former was for electing govermors in localities (i.e., govermors in large-units, small-units, and provinces) while the latter was for electing national congressmen. Nevertheless of such limit performing a comparative analysis on issues surrounding citizens' voting behavior as found in the two elections would provide meaningful lessons for us to understand dynamic and, somehow, turbulent political processes in Korea. The main objective of this study is to illuminate the reasons why the two elections produced contradictory results in such a ahort interim period (i.e., 10 months) of the two elections.
In the 1996 Fifteenth National Assembly Election, Sin-Han-Kuk Dang gained 139 seats, which shows a great reduction from 170 secured in the Fourteenth National Assembly. Whereas Kuk-Min-Howi won 79 seats in the Fifteenth National Assembly increased from 54 they gained in the Fourteenth National Assembly. Min-Joo-Dang, who cried for clearing off of 3 Kims (Kim, Young-Sam, Kim, Dae-Jung, Kim, Jong-Pil) from the stage of Korean Politics, became about being collapsed as a result of that election. Whereas Cha-Min-Ryon led by Mr. Kim, Jong-Pil ensured significant number of seats, enjoin great strides.
To our surprising among others the ruling party (Sin-Han-Kuk Dang) won over opposition parties in Seoul area - the capital city of Korea - in the Fifteenth National Election, which was rarely expected. It presents a sharp contrast to the 1995 Local Election when the opposition party won an overwhelming victory over the ruling party. Reviewing specific results of the 1995 Local Election, 33.8% of the total voters supported the ruling party, Min-Ja Dang - old name of Sin-Han-Kuk Dang. Min-Joo Dang whech used to be the biggest opposition party, polled 30.5% of total votes, whereas Ja-Min-Ryon led by Mr. Kim, Jong-Pil, obtained 10.9%. Inthe 1996 National Assembly Election, the ruling party (Sin-Han-Kuk Dang) was supported by 34.5% of total voters. Sae-Jeong-Chi Kuk-Min-Howi, the biggest opposition party, obtained 25.3% of voters while Tong-Hab-Min Joo Dang and Ja-Min-Ryon gained 11.2% abd 16.2% respectively. The total number of parliamentary seats the ruling party obtained was 139 out of 299 total seats, lacking a majority in the Assembly.
In electing provincial governors in the Fourteenth Election, the ruling party (Min-Ja Dang) gained 20.7% of votes, while Min-Joo Dang obtained 42.4%. In electing governors of city, district, or county Min-Ja Dang polled 35.1%, while Min-Joo Dang was supported by 47.9% of voters. In electing city or provincial assembly members Min-Ja Dang gained 36.7% of support whereas Min-Joo Dang polled 48.6% of voters. It was called a sweeping victory of the opposition party (Min-Joo Dang) in the 14th election. Citizens' voting propensity appeared in the two elections is particularly worth to be concerned: because the result of the Fifteenth Election demonstrated opposite phenomenon to that of the fourteenth Election. In the Fifteenth Election, the ruling party (Sin-Han-Kuk Dang) was supported by 36.5% of total voters, the first opposition party (Sae-Chung-Chi Kuk-Min-Hoei) was voted for by 35.2% of the total voters, and the Tong-Hab Min-Joo Dang gained only 13.5% of support. In particular, among total 47 parliamentary seats available for Seoul area, Sin-Han-Kuk Dang won 27 seats, the first opposition party(Sae-Jeong-Chi Kuk-Min Hoi) gained 18 seats, and Tong-Hab Min-Joo Dang gained only 1 seat. This means a crushing defeat of opposition parties, especially, the Sae-Jeong-Chi Kuk-Min Hoi led by Mr. Kim, Dae-Jung. This result encouraged the ruling party (Sin-Han-Kuk Dang) to be feel easy to restore a majority position in the National Assembly.
As was witnessed in other elections citizens' voting propensity in the Fifteenth election also was greatly associated with party identification tied in locality. Yet, the result of the Fifteenth Election reflects that there should be something different factors associated with voters' decisions in Seoul. The reasons for such miserable defeat of the opposition parties in that election are as follows:
First, the split of the Min-Joo Dang lowered the chance of being elected in each district in Seoul. The split was caused by two conflicting political forces - members in one group following Mr. Lee, Ki-Tack who tried to maintain the party (Min-Joo Dang) and the other led by Mr. Kim, Dae-Jung who broke the party to form a new political party named Sae Jeong Chi Kuk-Min Heoi. The split of the Min-Joo Dang divided voters who otherwise would had voted for the old Min-Joo Dang. The party split conduced to only 19 out of 47 winners in Seoul, even though about 48.7% of total electorates in Seoul voted for either Mr. Lee's new Min-Joo Dang or the Kim's Sae Jeong Chi Kuk-Min Heoi. This means that were it not demolished the old Min-Joo Dang would won 43 seats out of total 47 seats in Seoul area.
Second, the infiltration event of North Korean armed agents into the DMZ (Demilitarized Zone) happened in the election season was deliberately exaggerated by the present government and news media in the hand of ruling parties. It led a great number of voters, who have strong aspiration for peace and safety in Korean peninsular, to vote for ruling party (Sin-Han-Kuk Dang) with little exceptions.
Third, there was a lower level of voters' turnout(63.9%). In particular, the turnout rate of younger voters was very low (44.1%). The low level of younger generation's political participation is associated with high level of mistrust and apathy on ‘new conservatism’tendency of existing political parties including Sae-Chung-Chi Kuk-Min Heoi. It also has been accelerated by a recently salient backlash movement against political ideology. The lower level of turnout is absolutely unfavorable to opposite parties because, in tradition, younger voters are shown to be more likely to bo progressive and vote for opposite parties rather than conservative parties (i.e., ruling parties).
Voting behavior appeared in the both elections, as stated above, should matter much to he forthcoming 1997 presidential election. The ruling party led by Mr. Kim, Young-Sam, which has been self-praised as the ‘first civilian government’in Korean history, secured majority in the legislature through demolishing opposition party and ‘majority-opposition versus minority-ruling party’political power system backed by the people in the 1995 election. In the end the ruling party rushed “labor law”and “security law”bills through the legislature by surprise on 6 o'clock, A.M. in 1996, 12/26. Inaddition, we have good reason to question about the will of the President in office and his Cabinet in dealing with the bankrupt of Han-Bo company that has been benefitted by illegal preferential financing. Han-Bo company committed the absurdity and irrationality to pull the astronomical amout of money (5 trillion 7 thousand billion won) mostly during the era of Y.S. (Kim, Young-Sam)'s presidency.It is a typical example of the corruption of government-business collusion. People believe that the present government and the President in office are not capable of resolving such a wicked anti-democratic government-business connection because of his own political weakness. It is clear that the President in office - Mr. Kim, Young-Sam - cannot keep himself to stand in politically neutral position in executing future national policies and in the forthcoming 1997 presidential election. In words, the present government failed in differentiating itself from ones of ‘notorious’military despotism that have governed Korea in outrageous ways during the past three decades in administering the affairs of state. Again, this phenomenon is attributed to the irresponsibility and the incapability of the President in office and his fellowmen.
Finally, it should be noted that the manipulation of press by the party in power is another serious facet of the corruption. All successive governors have tried to use the press for their own interest with no exceptions. They have forced the press to be committed to the corruption for their own interest. This may be termed as “government-press collusion.”Many evidences supporting this argument have been disclosed in a variety of ways in most sectors in our society. Most Koreans worry about that the press will be a help to the President in office and ruling parties in the next election too.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 머리말
• Ⅱ. 1995년 地方選擧 및 1996년 總選擧와 韓國政治
• 1. 1995.6·27 지방선거
• 2. 1996.4·11 국회의원 총선거
• Ⅲ. 1995년 지방선거의 政黨別 投票性向
• 1. 3대지방선거 政黨別 득표 및 당선자 상황
• 2. 3대지방선거의 분석 및 평가
• Ⅳ. 1996년 總選擧의 政黨別 投票性向
• 1. 정당별 득표 및 당선자 상황
• 2. 총선거의 분석 및 평가
• Ⅴ. 兩大選擧의 政黨別 投票性向 比較