MAJOR SOURCES OF PERSISTENT TRADE DEFICIT IN ETHIOPIA

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Ethiopia has been experiencing persistent negative trade balance in its economy for a long period. To get the overview of this title, different previous studies were reviewed under literature and the results were found to be mixed in different countries. So, this study was designed to examine major sources of persistent trade deficit in Ethiopian economy.
In the analysis, trade balance (TB) which is export value minus import value was chosen as dependent variable and domestic income (GDPD), real exchange rate (ER), an average income of top trading partners (GDPT), money supply (M2) and foreign direct investment (FDI) were chosen as explanatory variables. Data of each variable collected annually over the period 1982 to 2012. To avoid the non-stationarity or trending behavior of variables over time, unit root test was conducted using ADF tool and all variables found to be stationary at their first difference. Ordinary least square (OLS) method was used to estimate the relationship between trade balances and its determinants and analysis were done by using STATA 13 software.
The general short run regression results showed that income of domestic residents, trading partner's income and foreign direct investment significant in determining trade balance at 5 percent level of significance. Real exchange rate found to be insignificant while money supply growth significant at 10% level of significance.
Finally, income of domestic residents, foreign direct investment (in the short-run) and money supply in the economy were found to be major sources of persistent negative trade balance of Ethiopia.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• CHAPTER I 1
• INTRODUCTION 1
• 1.1 Background 1
• 1.2 Statement of the study 4
• 1.3 Purpose of the study 5
• 1.4 Significance of the Study 6
• 1.5 Scope of the study 6
• CHAPTER II 7
• LITERATURE REVIEW 7
• 2.1 Theoretical Literature 7
• CHAPTER III 10
• OVERVIEW ON ETHIOPIAN TRADE 10
• 3.1 Export Import performance of Ethiopia 10
• 3.2 Ethiopias Trade Balance Direction 11
• 3.3 Main Ethiopian export items destinations 12
• 3.4 Main import origins 13
• 3.5 Main Export items 13
• 3.6 Main import items 15
• CHAPTER IV 16
• EMPIRICAL RESEARCH DESIGN 16
• 4.1 Data 16
• 4.2 Hypotheses and brief description of variables 16
• 4.2.1 Dependent Variable 16
• 4.2.2 Independent Variables 17
• 4.3 Model Specification 20
• 4.4 Unit Root Test 21
• CHAPTER V 23
• EMPIRICAL RESULT 23
• 5.1 Data Analysis 23
• 5.1.1 Descriptive Statistics 23
• 5.1.2 Stationarity Test Result 24
• 5.1.3 Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) 28
• 5.2 Empirical Results and Interpretation 29
• CHAPTER VI 31
• CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS 31
• 6.1 CONCLUSION 31
• 6.2 POLICY IMPLICATION 32
• 6.3 Limitations and further study 33
• REFERENCE 34
• WEBSITES 36