‘자원의 저주’와 동아시아형 신(新)발전국가의 구축가능성: 러시아 ‘푸틴 체제’의 사례를 중심으로 = “Resource Curse” and the Possibility of Formation of an East Asian Neo-developmental State: The Case of Russia

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper aims to grasp the political economic features of resource-rich countries caught in the “resource curse”, and to critically review the possibility of formation of an East Asian neo-developmental state, via the case of Russia’s “Putin system”, in them. In theoretical terms, the first necessary condition for the formation is the rulers’ strong will and actions for economic development and the corresponding effective state capacity that can regulate embedded relationship between the autonomous government and private economic actors. And the second necessary condition is international environments favorable for the formation. On the other hand, the “Putin system” has not only evolved into a semi-authoritarian regime along with the causal path of “resource curse”, but also attempted large-scale nationalization of the natural resource and strategic industry sectors. And afterward, Russia changed to a rentier or predatory state, which holds a very weak state capacity, under a few existing privileged elites, and therefore failed to achieve sustainable economic development. Moreover, the international condition is also never hospitable for this country currently, because of the strong economic sanctions from the Western bloc. Thus Russia currently seems to have considerable difficulties in increasing the competitiveness in new hi-tech as well as old industrial sectors, although Putin expresses his determined will for a good fight in the vortex of global “fourth industrial revolution” and the corresponding economic growth under the frame of a developmental state.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 논문은, 러시아의 ‘푸틴 체제’ 사례를 통해, ‘자원의 저주’에 빠진 자원부국들의 정치경제적 성격들을 파악하는 동시에, 해당 국가들에서의 동아시아형 신발전국가의 구축가능성을 비판적으로 검토해보는 것을 그 목적으로 삼는다. 이론적으로 볼 때, 자원부국에서의 발전국가의 구축가능성에 있어 그 첫 번째 필요조건은 통치자의 경제발전에 대한 강력한 의지와 실천 및 이로부터 도출되는, 자율적인 정부와 사적 경제주체들 간의 배태된 관계까지 제도적으로 규율해낼 수 있는 강한 국가능력이라고 할 수 있다. 그리고 두 번째 필요조건은 우호적인 국제정치경제적 환경이다. 한편, 러시아의 ‘푸틴 체제’는 ‘자원의 저주’에 의한 인과적 경로에 따라 유사권위주의 체제로 진화해온 동시에, 천연자원 및 전략 산업들에 대한 대대적 국유화 역시 동반하였다. 그리고 이후론 기존 엘리트층의 기득권 속에서 매우 취약한 국가능력만을 보유한 지대국가이자 약탈국가로 진화해갔으며, 따라서 지속가능한 경제발전에도 성공하지 못했다. 아울러, 서방측의 경제제재로 인해 현재는 대외환경 역시 결코 우호적이지 않은 상태이다. 그러므로, 발전국가적 외형하에서의 ‘4차 산업혁명’ 경쟁에서의 선전 및 경제발전을 향한 푸틴 대통령의 강력한 의지 표명에도 불구하고, 당분간 최첨단 지식산업 분야는 물론 구산업부문들에서도 역시 러시아가 글로벌 경쟁력을 키워가긴 어려울 것으로 전망된다.

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