인구 감소 현상에 따른 목포시 빈집 및 공지의 공간적 분포 전망 = Exploring Spatial Distribution of Empty Houses and Vacant Land Due to Population Decrease in Mokpo

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

With population losses and stagnant or depressed economies, the local governments embrace shrinkage and accept having a significantly smaller population. Both the initial and ongoing causes of shrinkage hold dramatic effects on the city and its remaining residents. In this context, vacant land increases as an overabundance of unused infrastructure is demolished and municipalities become burdened with increasing maintenance costs of this land. The result is that vacant land often experiences minimal management relative to social norms and have chance to provide a setting for ecological processes with urban rightsizing strategy. Therefore, urban ecosystems undergo major shifts in structure and function. We need to better understand the possibilities of where and how much of houses and land will be abandoned to assist land planners and policymakers to mitigate conflict between optimal ecological and sociological outcomes. This article, therefore, aims to identify distributional characteristics of vacant houses and lands with case study of Mokpo. The study found and verified affecting factors of vacant houses and lands by type through the use of a Maxent model and spatial data that explained housing choice and preference theory. We can predict the vacancies with the spatial variables such as land price, the population ratio over 65, and the distance from security facility. Based on the analysis, the ways of managing housing and land vacancy for sustainable development and ecological restoration method are discussed.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 김현중, "확률선택모형을 활용한 농촌 빈집의 공간적 패턴 예측" 한국주거환경학회 14 (14): 15-27, 2016

2 김광중, "한국 도시쇠퇴의 원인과 특성" 한국도시지리학회 13 (13): 43-58, 2010

3 오윤경, "토지피복변화 예측을 위한 CLUE 모델의 확률지도 생성" 한국농촌계획학회 16 (16): 47-55, 2010

4 왕경순, "축소도시에 대한 미국의 정책대응 및 시사점 - 빈집과 토지은행을 대상으로 -" 대한국토·도시계획학회 54 (54): 159-172, 2019

5 김호걸, "지자체의 기후변화 재해 대응 지원을 위한 잠재 산사태 위험지역 분석: 충청 지역을 대상으로" (재) 인천연구원 (14) : 93-118, 2018

6 이다건, "지방 중소도시의 인구감소추세에 따른 도시 축소 시뮬레이션" 대한건축학회 35 (35): 127-134, 2019

7 최형식, "주거환경개선사업에 대한 주민만족도 결정요인에 관한 연구" 건국대학교 대학원 2009

8 정병호, "주거특성이 주거만족도와 주거가치관에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구" 한국부동산학회 (63) : 256-267, 2015

9 권기현, "주거이동이 주거 만족도에 미치는 영향 분석" 한국주택학회 21 (21): 189-213, 2013

10 강인호, "일본 축소도시의 컴팩트 시티 추진전략" 한국정책학회 27 (27): 221-244, 2018

11 임형백, "인구감소시대에 축소도시를 활용한 도시계획" 한국도시행정학회 30 (30): 87-114, 2017

12 임석회, "인구감소도시의 유형과 지리적 특성 분석" 국토지리학회 52 (52): 65-84, 2018

13 서창완, "위치자료의 종류에 따른 생물종 분포모형 비교 연구" 대한공간정보학회 16 (16): 59-64, 2008

14 류지철, "오염총량관리제의 시공간적 미래 토지이용 변화분석을 위한 CLUE-S 모델의 적용 및 평가" 한국물환경학회 30 (30): 418-428, 2014

15 한수경, "빈집의 공간적 군집과 고착화에 관한 실증 연구: 전라북도 익산시를 대상으로" 국토연구원 97 : 17-39, 2018

16 박현철, "기후변화에 의한 눈잣나무의 서식지 분포 예측" 한국환경영향평가학회 23 (23): 379-392, 2014

17 지남석, "거주자의 주거이동 유형과 주거만족도의 관계 분석 - 대전광역시 거주자를 대상으로 -" 한국도시행정학회 24 (24): 151-172, 2011

18 Rega-Brodsky, C. C., "Vacant lots as a habitat resource : nesting success and body condition of songbirds" 7 (7): 1-11, 2016

19 Koo HS, "Urban Shrinkage in Korea: Current Status and Policy Implications" Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements 2016

20 Gardiner, M., "The Value of Urban Vacant Land to Support Arthropod Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services" 42 (42): 1123-1136, 2013

21 Mallach, A, "The Shrinking City in Comparative Perspective : Contrasting Dynamics and Responses to Urban Shrinkage" 69 : 102-108, 2017

22 Kim GW, "The Public Value of Urban Vacant Land : Social Responses and Ecological Value" 8 (8): 486-, 2016

23 Kim SH, "Study on Population Decline and Changes in the Population Structure in Shrinking Cities" Hanyang University 2019

24 Statistics Korea, "Special Estimation of Future Population: 2017-2067"

25 Liu, C, "Selecting Thresholds for the Prediction of Species Occurrence with Presence-Only Data" 40 (40): 778-789, 2013

26 Lee MJ, "Predicted the distribution of goral habitat in Korea using Maxent model : Seoraksan and Uljin-Samcheok area" Ewha Womans University 2017

27 Statistics Korea, "Population of resident registration by administrative district (eupmyeon-dong)/5 years of age (2011~)"

28 Mokpo Municipal History Compilation Committee, "Mokpo City History" Mokpo City 2017

29 Choi JK, "Mokpo City Collapses Population at 240,000 in 2014"

30 Phillips, S. J., "Modeling of species distributions with Maxent : new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation" 31 (31): 161-175, 2008

31 Lee SW, "Measures for the Prevention of Empty House in Korea, A thorough investigation of the situation comes first" 22 : 26-39, 2018

32 김효민, "MaxEnt를 이용한 서울시 도시홍수 적응능력 취약지역 선정에 관한 연구" 대한국토·도시계획학회 48 (48): 205-217, 2013

33 김호걸, "MaxEnt 모형을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 산사태 발생가능성 예측" 한국환경영향평가학회 22 (22): 39-50, 2013

34 Mokpo City, "Government Performance"

35 Rößler, S, "Freiräume in schrumpfenden Städten. Chancen und Grenzen der Freiraumplanung im Stadtumbau" 50 : 2010

36 Jeollanam-do, "Forecasting the Future Population of Jeonnam-do" 2017

37 이동근, "Dyna-CLUE 모델을 이용한 양평·여주 지역의 토지이용 변화 예측 및 평가" 한국환경복원기술학회 14 (14): 119-130, 2011

38 Haase, D, "Conceptualizing the Nexus between Urban Shrinkage and Ecosystem Services" 132 : 159-169, 2014

39 Nenzén, H. K., "Choice of threshold alters projections of species range shifts under climate change" 222 : 3346-3354, 2011

40 Mokpo City, "Chief Work Plan"

41 Kim JG, "Case of Germany’s Miniature City Policy" 52 (52): 30-33, 2017

42 Muller, M. P., "Can Routine Laboratory Tests Discriminate between Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome and Other Causes of Community‐Acquired Pneumonia?" 40 (40): 1079-1086, 2005

43 Song SW, "Assess the Accuracy of Diagnostic Tools" 8 (8): 1-2, 2018

44 Statistics Korea, "Area of an Urban Area per Capita"

45 Kang SG, "A Study on the Information System and A Survey on an empty house" Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport 2017

46 Oh BR, "A Study on the Actual Condition Analysis and Utilization of Empty House in Jeollabuk-do" Jeonbuk Institute 2017

47 Bank of Korea Mokpo Branch, "10 years since the relocation of Jeonnam Provincial Government, Regional Economic Change and Future Challenges" Bank of Korea 2015