직접지불제 하에서의 쌀 생산조정제 시행의 효과분석에 관한 연구 = A Study on the Effects of Production Control for Rice Industry under the Direct Payments Program

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In recent years, the rice industry in Korea has intensified the price instability due to a glut of supply and demand imbalance. While the rice production increased due to the favorable weather conditions and increase of production per unit area, rice consumption is constantly reducing with dietary changes due to the increase in income level and the development of food service culture. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze whether an introduction of rice production control can solve the fundamental problems of rice price issues directly related to the rice oversupply problem and farm income by analyzing various effects in conjunction with direct payments program, which is currently being carried out when rice production control was introduced, by focusing on the introduction of rice production control that is mentioned as a solution for such rice oversupply resolution.
First, when production control of Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and US was inquired, it was analyzed that the effect of implementation of production control varied according to the country's policy structure and alternative policies of production control. Also, the effect of production control also vary according to the period of consideration after the introduction. Although the market price rises in short because quantity of supply is reduced as much as the amount of rice production control, it was verified that the quantity of supply was not reduced as much as the amount of rice production control in the long-term as the price hikes in short-term acts as the production incentives.
The results of examining the effects of introducing policy option in short-term based on such analysis showed that the rice production control influences producer, consumer welfare, and government financial transfers as it rises domestic rice market price regardless of policy alternatives, and eventually, it was affecting the well-being of the whole society. First, fallow compensation was verified that the welfare of rice producers and government increased, where as the welfare of consumers decreased. However, if amount of production control exceeds 100 thousand tons as the rise of farmgate price and market price differ from each other according to the characteristics of direct payment with separated market price and farmgate price, it showed that the welfare reduction was greater than the welfare increment.
Next, as the difference between production diversification and fallow compensation that even affects farm crop market, the production diversification brings conflicting results in the farm crop market from the rice market. The welfare of farm crop producers significantly decreases when the farm crops are achieved as domestic low production of crops. When social welfare level was compared to the fallow compensation, the farm crops compensation rather decreased more significantly by reducing the welfare of previous farm crop producers.
The results of this paper has provided many useful information in relation to the introduction of rice production control. First, at a time when direct payment of rice is currently being implemented, they are considered to be helpful in rice production control related policy formulation by providing basic information about the effects of each policy alternatives of production control.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

최근 들어 우리나라 쌀 산업은 수급불균형에 따른 공급과잉으로 인해 가격 불안정이 심화되고 있다. 기상여건 호조와 단수의 증가에 힘입어 쌀 생산량은 증가한 반면, 쌀 소비량은 소득수준의 증가와 외식 문화의 발달로 인해 식생활이 변화되면서 계속적으로 감소하고 있는 실정이다. 따라서 본 논문은 이러한 쌀 공급 과잉기조 해소를 위한 해결책으로 거론되고 있는 쌀 생산조정제 도입에 초점을 맞추어 쌀 생산조정제가 도입되었을 때 현재 시행되고 있는 쌀 직접지불제와 연계되어 나타날 수 있는 여러 가지 효과들을 분석함으로써 쌀 생산조정제 도입이 쌀 공급과잉문제와 농가소득과 직결되는 쌀 가격문제를 근본적으로 해결할 수 있는지를 분석하는 데 그 목적을 두고 있다.
먼저 한국을 포함한 일본, 대만, 미국의 생산조정제를 살펴본 결과 생산조정제의 시행은 그 나라의 정책 구조와 생산조정제의 정책 대안에 따라 그 효과가 다른 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 생산조정제는 도입 후 고려되는 기간에 따라서도 그 효과가 달라지는 것으로 나타났다. 단기에 있어서는 쌀 생산조정량 만큼 공급량이 줄어 시장가격이 상승하게 되지만 장기에 있어서는 단기에서의 가격 상승이 생산유인책으로 작용하여 단기에서와 같이 공급량이 생산조정량 만큼 줄어들지 않는 것으로 나타났다.
이상의 분석내용을 바탕으로 단기에 있어 정책대안 별 도입효과를 살펴본 결과 쌀 생산조정제는 정책대안에 상관없이 국내 쌀 시장가격을 상승시킴으로써 생산자 및 소비자후생, 그리고 정부재정지출에 영향을 미쳐 결국 사회전체의 후생수준에 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 먼저 휴경보상의 경우 쌀 생산자와 정부는 후생이 증가하는 반면 소비자는 후생이 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 시장가격과 농가수취가격이 분리되어 있는 직접지불제의 특성으로 농가수취가격과 시장가격의 상승폭이 서로 차이가 남으로써 생산조정량이 10만 톤을 초과하면 후생의 증가분보다 후생의 감소분이 더 큰 것으로 나타났다.
다음으로 전작보상의 경우 전작작물 시장에도 영향을 미친다는 것이 휴경보상과 차이점으로 전작작물 시장에는 쌀 시장과 상반되는 결과를 가져오는 것으로 나타났다. 국내생산량이 적은 작물로 전작이 이루어질수록 전작작물 생산자들의 후생은 더 크게 감소하며 결국, 전작보상은 기존 전작작물 생산자의 후생을 감소시킴으로써 사회전체의 후생수준은 휴경보상과 비교하였을 때 오히려 더 크게 감소하는 것으로 나타났다.
본 논문의 분석결과는 현재 쌀 직접지불제가 시행되고 있는 시점에서 생산조정제 정책대안별 효과에 대한 기초정보를 제공해 줌으로써 쌀 생산조정제와 관련된 정책방향 정립에 도움을 줄 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제 1장 서론 ········································································· 1
• 제 1절 연구 배경 및 목적 ······················································· 1
• 제 2절 연구 범위 및 방법 ······················································· 2
• 제 3절 선행연구 검토 ···························································· 3
• 제 2장 국내외 쌀 산업 현황 ···················································· 7
• 제 1절 국내 쌀 산업 현황 ······················································· 7
• 1. 생산 ············································································· 7
• 1) 생산면적 ······································································ 7
• 2) 생산량 ········································································ 8
• 3) 수량 ··········································································· 8
• 2. 소비 ············································································· 9
• 1) 총 소비 ······································································· 9
• 2) 가공용 소비 ································································· 11
• 3) 기타소비 및 1인당 소비 ·················································· 11
• 3. 교역 ··········································································· 12
• 1) 수입 ·········································································· 12
• 2) 수출 ·········································································· 14
• 3) 자급률 ······································································· 14
• 4. 재고 ··········································································· 15
• 5. 가격 ··········································································· 16
• 1) 도·소매가격 ································································· 16
• 2) 농가판매·수취가격 ························································· 17
• 6. 국내 쌀 산업전망 ···························································· 18
• 제 2절 세계 쌀 산업 현황 ······················································· 19
• 1. 생산 ··········································································· 20
• 1) 생산면적 ···································································· 20
• 2) 생산량 ······································································· 20
• 3) 수량 ·········································································· 21
• 4) 국가별 생산 ································································· 21
• 2. 소비 ··········································································· 23
• 1) 총 소비 ······································································ 23
• 2) 대륙별 소비 ································································· 24
• 3. 교역 ··········································································· 26
• 1) 수입 ·········································································· 26
• 2) 수출 ·········································································· 27
• 4. 재고 ··········································································· 28
• 5. 가격 ··········································································· 28
• 제 3장 쌀 생산조정제 시행 사례 ··············································· 31
• 제 1절 외국의 쌀 생산조정제 ·················································· 31
• 1. 일본 ··········································································· 31
• 1) 도입배경 ···································································· 31
• 2) 내용 ·········································································· 32
• 3) 효과 ·········································································· 33
• 2. 대만 ··········································································· 35
• 1) 도입배경 ···································································· 35
• 2) 내용 ·········································································· 35
• 3) 효과 ·········································································· 37
• 3. 미국 ··········································································· 38
• 1) 도입배경 및 내용 ·························································· 38
• 2) 효과 ·········································································· 39
• 제 2절 우리나라 쌀 생산조정제 ··············································· 41
• 1. 도입배경 ······································································ 41
• 2. 내용 ··········································································· 42
• 3. 효과 ··········································································· 44
• 제 3절 평가 및 시사점 ·························································· 47
• 제 4장 쌀 생산조정제 분석 모형 및 이론적 고찰 ························· 50
• 제 1절 기본 가정 및 모형 ······················································ 50
• 1. 기본가정 ······································································ 50
• 2. 모형 ··········································································· 51
• 1) 단기 ·········································································· 52
• (1) 휴경보상 ·································································· 52
• (2) 전작보상 ·································································· 53
• 2) 장기 ·········································································· 56
• 제 2절 수리적 분석 ······························································ 58
• 1. 휴경보상 ······································································ 60
• 1) 수급에 미치는 영향 ······················································· 60
• 2) 가격에 미치는 영향 ······················································· 61
• 3) 후생에 미치는 영향 ······················································· 62
• 2. 전작보상 ······································································ 64
• 1) 수급에 미치는 영향 ······················································· 64
• 2) 가격에 미치는 영향 ······················································· 66
• 3) 후생에 미치는 영향 ······················································· 66
• 제 5장 쌀 생산조정제 시행의 실증적 분석 ································· 69
• 제 1절 휴경보상 도입의 효과 ·················································· 73
• 1. 수급·가격변화 ································································ 73
• 2. 후생변화 ······································································ 75
• 제 2절 전작보상 도입의 효과 ··················································· 77
• 1. 수급변화 ······································································ 77
• 2. 가격변화 ······································································ 78
• 3. 후생변화 ······································································ 79
• 제 3절 정책적 함의 및 시사점 ················································· 83
• 제 6장 요약 및 결론 ····························································· 86
• < 참고문헌 > ······································································ 88
• < 부 록 > ······································································ 90
• < 영문초록 > ····································································· 103