상업용 부동산 개발사업의 리스크 요인 중요도에 관한 연구 = A study on the importance of risk factors in commercial real estate development projects

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Real estate shares meaning with the growth of cities and countries. Real estate in the dictionary sense defines property that cannot be moved like land or buildings, but if you look at real estate broadly, it becomes the basis for buildings and people to form a city. Cities and countries where ancient humans gathered to form communities and where civilization occurred based on developed societies were further revived through urban planning. As the center of industrial activities, the city plays a role in economic and job creation and leads the development of technology and industry. This is because culture, economy, and society are concentrated, and the vitality and productivity of the strengthened city attract more human resources to the city. Accordingly, along with efforts for balanced urban development, institutional help at the national level is sought to foster high value-added industries that are the basis of economic development in each city.
From 1970 to the 1980s, rapid economic growth and industrialization policies were implemented in Korea, and urban concentration centered on the metropolitan area began. With the increase in population, the urban spatial structure is diversified, and the centralization of the city center continues to intensify. Since the IMF financial relief in 1997, the real estate development industry has grown due to the economic and social restructuring, and commercial real estate has expanded further and is growing in size.
Commercial real estate plays a role in creating employment and jobs by connecting population and industry, and contributing to economic growth and the development of society as a whole. Since the mid-1960s, the Urban Planning Act was enacted in 1971 and urban redevelopment projects began in earnest in the early 1980s, changing the perception of commercial real estate. Commercial real estate is a representative profitable real estate. As commercial real estate with the purpose of urban reorganization begins to develop further as a solution to the urban hollowing-out phenomenon caused by CBD (Central Business District) in the center of Seoul, the diversification of capital returns through lease, transfer, and value increase is one of the factors evaluated as high value-added investment. Commercial real estate could be recognized as an attractive investment destination for ordinary investors through fund creation due to the recovery of growth and ultra-low interest rate policies for economic stimulus since 2016, and trading volume increased as barriers to investment entry were lowered. The number of commercial real estate transactions increased from about 257,000 in 2016 to about 384,000 in 2017, about 335,000 in 2020, about 381,000 in 2021, and about 360,000 in 2022, up about 40% from 2016. Korea Real Estate Agency (2023), "Status of detailed building transactions by year".
The revitalization of the market for commercial real estate is led by increased demand in urban areas, government policies to organize aging buildings in urban areas for new business purposes, and landlords to maximize profitability.
Commercial real estate development has resulted in a significant increase in the difference in returns before and after development based on scale expansion and variety of uses. The experience and learning of the project led to urban redevelopment and the active progress of commercial real estate, further boosting commercial real estate development. In addition, the low-interest rate trend has been maintained since the IMF, and the trend of the construction market, which has shifted from existing contract projects to profit structures through development projects, is one of the important factors that led to the boom in commercial real estate. However, commercial real estate did not have a reliable transaction standard, so it was formed as a special market centered on sellers and development entities. Under these market conditions, commercial real estate development has the advantage of a high return on investment when successful, but it has a fatal risk that can threaten even the company's right to live if it fails.
Therefore, the implementation of commercial real estate development must be accompanied by a valuation of the right standards. The background of the study is that smooth development should be made to minimize the rate of project failure by evaluating the importance of risks that may occur in development projects with high social impact due to success and failure.
Failure to curb the possibility of a series of financial crises by contractors, contractors, and related companies in commercial real estate development can lead to consequences that affect cities, countries, and the economy as a whole. In order to create high value-added and achieve business purposes in commercial real estate development, the important risks inherent in each development stage are checked in advance and the importance of risk factors to reflect them is evaluated.

The importance and main contents of risk factors in the implementation of commercial real estate development projects verified through the survey of this study can be summarized as follows.
First, as a result of analyzing the importance of risks by stage in real estate development projects, it was found that the importance of the development project preparation stage was the highest. This is because the development project preparation stage is interpreted as a key step in making decisions to determine whether the project is carried out in various ways through land purchases of commercial real estate, evaluation of surrounding locations, and exit strategies in the development process.
Second, the relative risk importance of each middle classification factor in the development project feasibility stage was found to be the highest in the project planning stage. This is because the establishment of specific plans for the project, such as financing methods reviewed in the business plan stage and connection with partners, is an important issue that affects the overall business feasibility evaluation.
Third, the characteristics of development project agreements were the most important factor in the relative risk importance of each middle classification factor in the development project preparation stage. This is because it implies an essential concept of whether or not the business is implemented. For example, financial company-linked projects and funding plans, including the proportion of equity capital by implementers and financing, are the most basic requirements for determining whether the project is carried out, requiring a detailed exit strategy check in the development project preparation stage.
Fourth, the characteristics of pre-sale performance were found to be the most important factor in the relative risk importance of each middle classification factor in the development stage. This is because if risk factors occur rapidly due to unpredictable external changes even though the project is carried out in consideration of the construction economy or economic environment, it can lead to an increase in the unsold rate, resulting in a decrease in profit and loss, which can reduce overall business feasibility.
Fifth, defect repair characteristics were found to be the most important factor in the relative importance of each classification factor in the post-development management stage. This is because an increase in unexpected defect repair due to cracks, leaks, and design changes can lead to an extension of the construction period and an increase in the total cost of the project, which can significantly reduce overall business feasibility.
As a result of the comprehensive correction importance analysis through the fuzzy-AHP methodology, the top five risk factors and risk management measures for them are summarized as follows.
(1) The lack of exit strategies (credit risk of partners, default risk) has been identified as the most important risk factor. Real estate development is a long-term project, and construction can be suspended or delayed due to internal problems such as construction delays, as well as unpredictable external variables such as interest rate fluctuations, bridge loan repayment, and real estate economic downturn. In preparation for such a situation, it is necessary to organize scenarios for various risks from an early stage, and risk management should proceed together.
(2) It was evaluated as an additional construction risk due to errors in business size and balance analysis. Errors in determining the size of the project can lead to a fatal risk of turning the business balance into a deficit at the time of completion of the development project. Since it can have a significant impact on all stages of the project from investment of funds to completion of development in long-term development projects, precise business size and balance analysis evaluation are required, and flexible responses are needed. Therefore, commercial real estate development projects should clearly review the timing of supply of commercial land and infrastructure and establish processes related to the execution of cash flows and investment costs.
(3) It was evaluated as the share of equity capital of the developer. This is because the size of borrowing is determined by the proportion of equity capital of the developer in charge of the commercial real estate development project. This has a very high impact on the overall flow of funds in development projects and is linked to business gains and losses that occur when future development is completed. Therefore, it is necessary to closely grasp the size of the developer's equity capital and borrowing and evaluate business feasibility with objective indicators.
(4) It was evaluated as a period of business and a profit or loss error (development project simulation error). This is because the profitability of the entire project decreases and the cost increases, resulting in a decrease in profit and loss due to step-by-step external risks that occur when the development project period is prolonged. Therefore, a solution is needed to analyze investment costs and business balance through securing detailed preliminary costs for each stage and accurate process design. These drafts and amendments must continue to be shared within the enterprise.
(5) It was evaluated as an error in appropriately setting the project cost (construction cost, nonconformity of the sale price). This is because increasing the saleability by clearly establishing the appropriate size of development and the requirements of surrounding consumers is an important factor and purpose of the project in determining the success of the development project. Therefore, it is necessary to establish an appropriate investment time, size, method, and process for securing costs, and to secure professional manpower to design and execute the budget according to the flow of project feasibility. Above all, it is important to establish a civil complaint handling relationship with government offices according to the size of development and maintain the business balance conservatively according to precise investment design.
In the case of commercial real estate development projects, stage-by-stage risk factors are similar compared to general housing development projects, but there are differences in the composition and flow of project funds. Unlike government policies and general housing projects guaranteed by affiliated organizations, commercial real estate development projects are mainly led by the private sector, with a low proportion of equity capital and most of the funds are from partners through external PF. This is divided into land purchase funds, essential project cost funds, main construction funds, and post-construction funds.
In the case of commercial real estate development projects, project evaluation and review at the project planning stage, such as traffic volume, land purchase possibility, fund liquidity, construction company, and saleability, are the most important, and the key is to increase the sale rate through close demand analysis. If the number of shopping malls is excessively increased or large-scale equilibrium is insisted due to the burden of construction costs, it can lead to a drop in sales, resulting in a series of financial defaults. Therefore, the work of increasing added value should be preceded to achieve the sales target set at the beginning of the project, and thorough risk management at this stage is required. In particular, various simulations should be conducted, such as considering the occurrence of construction delays due to unexpected relics investigation and excavation of relics in the city center.
In order to shorten the land purchase period, it is necessary to properly and quickly proceed with the tenant's compensation for the goodwill or premium structure. It is necessary to ask for understanding from residents around them in advance about vibration, noise, and fine dust that may occur during the construction of underground facilities and minimize complaints. In the case of commercial real estate development projects, the success or failure of development projects due to risks has a profound impact on society, so it is most important to properly identify the importance of various risk factors derived from the study and find countermeasures accordingly.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제1장 서 론 1
• 제1절 연구의 배경 및 목적 1
• 1. 연구의 배경 1
• 2. 연구의 목적 3
• 제2절 연구의 범위 및 방법 5
• 1. 연구의 범위 5
• 2. 연구의 방법 7
• 제3절 연구의 구성 및 체계 8
• 제2장 상업용 부동산 개발사업에 관한 일반적 고찰 10
• 제1절 상업용 부동산 개발사업의 특성과 유형 10
• 1. 상업용 부동산 개발사업의 개념 10
• 2. 상업용 부동산 개발사업의 현황 및 특성 13
• 3. 상업용 부동산 개발사업의 유형 19
• 제2절 상업용 부동산 개발사업의 리스크 관리 24
• 1. 상업용 부동산 개발사업의 리스크 정의 24
• 2. 상업용 부동산 개발사업의 리스크 분류와 대응 26
• 3. 상업용 부동산 개발사업의 리스크 요인과 방안 28
• 제3절 상업용 부동산 개발사업 사례 연구 35
• 1. 힐스테이트 천호역 복합시설 개발사업 35
• 2. 방이동 오피스텔(잠실 어반로프트 올림픽파크 오피스텔) 개발사업 41
• 3. 일본 롯본기 힐즈 복합시설 개발사업 44
• 제4절 선행연구 검토 45
• 1. 개발사업 리스크에 관한 연구 46
• 2. 상업용 개발사업 금융리스크에 관한 연구 49
• 3. 오피스텔 개발사업 리스크에 관한 연구 51
• 4. 상업용 부동산 개발사업 리스크에 관한 연구 55
• 5. 선행연구와의 차별성 58
• 제3장 분석 기법 및 조사설계 60
• 제1절 분석 이론 60
• 1. AHP 분석 기법의 탐색 60
• 2. FUZZY 분석 기법의 적용 64
• 제2절 모형의 설계 및 변수 선정 67
• 1. 분석 모형의 설계 67
• 2. AHP 설문 모형 및 변수 선정 69
• 제3절 조사설계 74
• 1. 표본 설계 및 설문조사 74
• 2. 설문 응답자 기초분석 75
• 제4장 실증분석 77
• 제1절 타당성 및 신뢰성 검증 77
• 제2절 절대적 중요도 분석 79
• 1. 단계별 중요도 79
• 2. 개발사업 타당성 단계 중요도 80
• 3. 개발사업 준비단계 중요도 82
• 4. 개발 단계 중요도 83
• 5. 개발 후 관리 단계 중요도 85
• 제3절 상대적 중요도 분석 및 FUZZY-AHP 분석 87
• 1. 상대적 중요도 분석 87
• 2. FUZZY 분석 103
• 3. AHP 종합 중요도와 FUZZY-AHP 보정 종합 중요도 비교 109
• 제5장 결론 112
• 제1절 연구의 요약 112
• 제2절 연구의 시사점 및 한계 116
• 【참고문헌】 119
• ABSTRACT 124