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    미국의 대북 무력강압 실패에 대한 연구 = 1968년 푸에블로호 나포사건을 중심으로

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    https://www.riss.kr/link?id=A100037079

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    다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract) kakao i 다국어 번역

    International relations is the history of great powers. In other words, the international order is formed by the capabilities and will of these great powers. Consequently, great powers may coerce relatively weaker states to pursue their own national interests. However, military coercion of a weak state by a great power has often ended in failure. Why does great power’s coercion fail? This article will analyze the USS Pueblo incident in 1968 on the Korean peninsula to search for an explanation to this certain question. During the USS Pueblo crisis, the U.S. initially attempted to coerce North Korea by rapidly increasing its air and naval power on the Korean peninsula. Yet, the U.S. soon abandoned its coercive strategy and opted for a diplomatic alternative through direct negotiations with Pyongyang. This paper will analyze a causes of failure of the military coercion by focusing on four different factors; military alternatives deployed by the coercing state, counter-coercive capability of the coerced state, domestic politics within the coercing state, and the existence and role of a mediating state. This analysis will offer insight on coercive strategies regarding the security issues an Korean peninsular, while contributing to the study on the limitations of the strategy.
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    International relations is the history of great powers. In other words, the international order is formed by the capabilities and will of these great powers. Consequently, great powers may coerce relatively weaker states to pursue their own national i...

    International relations is the history of great powers. In other words, the international order is formed by the capabilities and will of these great powers. Consequently, great powers may coerce relatively weaker states to pursue their own national interests. However, military coercion of a weak state by a great power has often ended in failure. Why does great power’s coercion fail? This article will analyze the USS Pueblo incident in 1968 on the Korean peninsula to search for an explanation to this certain question. During the USS Pueblo crisis, the U.S. initially attempted to coerce North Korea by rapidly increasing its air and naval power on the Korean peninsula. Yet, the U.S. soon abandoned its coercive strategy and opted for a diplomatic alternative through direct negotiations with Pyongyang. This paper will analyze a causes of failure of the military coercion by focusing on four different factors; military alternatives deployed by the coercing state, counter-coercive capability of the coerced state, domestic politics within the coercing state, and the existence and role of a mediating state. This analysis will offer insight on coercive strategies regarding the security issues an Korean peninsular, while contributing to the study on the limitations of the strategy.

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    참고문헌 (Reference)

    1 문정인, "한국과 미국 1: 정치∙안보 관계" 경남대학교 극동문제 연구소 1988

    2 이신재, "푸에블로호 사건이 북한의 대미 인식과 협상전략에 미친 영향" 북한대학원대학교 2013

    3 김태현, "억지의 실패와 강압외교: 쿠바의 미사일과 북한의 핵" 한국국제정치학회 52 (52): 57-83, 2012

    4 이동선, "북한에 대한 강압: 효과와 전략" 한국전략문제연구소 19 (19): 119-151, 2012

    5 임재학, "미국의 대북한 군사개입 억제요인 분석 : 푸에블로호 사건과 8.18 사건을 중심으로" 경북대학교 2011

    6 Morton B. John, "Years of Discount: American Politics and Society 1961-1974" W. W. Norton 1991

    7 Pape, Robert A., "Why Economic Sanctions Still Do Not Work" 23 (23): 1998

    8 "Tom Johnson’s Notes of Meetings. The President’s Appointment File (Pueblo). Box 88-96"

    9 Art, Robert J, "The Use of Force: Military Power and International Politics" Rowman & Littlefield Publishers 2004

    10 Art, Robert J., "The United States and Coercive Diplomacy" U.S. Institute of Peace 2003

    1 문정인, "한국과 미국 1: 정치∙안보 관계" 경남대학교 극동문제 연구소 1988

    2 이신재, "푸에블로호 사건이 북한의 대미 인식과 협상전략에 미친 영향" 북한대학원대학교 2013

    3 김태현, "억지의 실패와 강압외교: 쿠바의 미사일과 북한의 핵" 한국국제정치학회 52 (52): 57-83, 2012

    4 이동선, "북한에 대한 강압: 효과와 전략" 한국전략문제연구소 19 (19): 119-151, 2012

    5 임재학, "미국의 대북한 군사개입 억제요인 분석 : 푸에블로호 사건과 8.18 사건을 중심으로" 경북대학교 2011

    6 Morton B. John, "Years of Discount: American Politics and Society 1961-1974" W. W. Norton 1991

    7 Pape, Robert A., "Why Economic Sanctions Still Do Not Work" 23 (23): 1998

    8 "Tom Johnson’s Notes of Meetings. The President’s Appointment File (Pueblo). Box 88-96"

    9 Art, Robert J, "The Use of Force: Military Power and International Politics" Rowman & Littlefield Publishers 2004

    10 Art, Robert J., "The United States and Coercive Diplomacy" U.S. Institute of Peace 2003

    11 Schelling, Thomas, "The Strategy of Conflict" Harvard University Press 1960

    12 Radchenko, Sergey S., "The Soviet Union and the North Korean Seizure of the USS Pueblo Evidence from the Russian Archives. Cold War International history Project" Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 2006

    13 Sarantakes, Nicholas, "The Quiet War: Combat Operations along the Korean Demilitarized Zone, 1966-1969" 64 : 2000

    14 Liston, Robert, "The Pueblo Surrender: A Covert Action by the National Security Agency" Evans 1988

    15 Lerner, Mitchell B., "The Pueblo Incident: A Spy Ship and the Failure of American Foreign Policy" University of Kansas 2002

    16 Koh, Byung Chul, "The Pueblo Incident in Perspective" 9 (9): 1969

    17 George, Alexander L., "Strategies for preventive diplomacy and conflict resolution" 33 (33): 2000

    18 NSF, "Special Head of State Correspondence. Korea. Box 32-33. NARA"

    19 Murphy, Edward R., "Second in Command" Holt, Rinehart and Winston 1971

    20 George, Christian, "Pueblo Miscellaneous File"

    21 Clark Clifford, "Pueblo 3/1/68-1/20/69"

    22 Baldwin, David, "Power Analysis and World Politics: New Trends and Old Tendencies" 31 (31): 1979

    23 Downs, Chuck, "Over the Line: North Korea’s Negotiating Strategy. Washington" American Enterprise Institute Press 1999

    24 Clark Clifford, "North-Korea-USS Pueblo Incident"

    25 Lee, Hy-Sang, "North Korea: A Strange Socialist Fortress" Praeger 2001

    26 NSF, "National Security Council Meetings. Volume 4: “Cyprus(1/24/68).”(Pueblo). Box 2"

    27 NSF, "National Security Council Histories.“ Pueblo Crisis, 1968.”Box 27-37"

    28 NSF, "National Intelligence Estimates.“ 42, South Korea.”Box 6"

    29 NSF, "National Intelligence Estimates.“ 40, Far East.”(Korea) Box 6"

    30 NSF, "National Intelligence Estimates.“ 14.2 North Korea.”Box 5"

    31 NSF, "National Intelligence Estimates.“ 13-61 to 13-65, Communist China.”Box 4"

    32 NSF, "Name File.“ Jorden Memos.”(China, Korea) Box 5" NARA

    33 NSF, "Memos to the President. Box 27, 43"

    34 "MeetingNotes File.“ 1/31/68-Meeting with Congressional Leaders.”"

    35 "Meeting Notes File. “1/24/68-Meeting with State Department on Pueblo.”"

    36 Langston, Thomas S., "Lyndon Baines Johnson" CQ Press 2002

    37 Levy, Jack, "Loss Aversion, Framing, and Bargaining: The Implications of Prospect Theory for International Conflict" 17 (17): 1996

    38 Suh, Dae-Sook, "Kim Il Sung: The North Korean Leader" Columbia University Press 1988

    39 NSF, "Intelligence File.“ Pueblo, 1/68.”Box 11"

    40 NSF, "Head of State Correspondence. Korea. “President Park, Volume I, 8/30/67-10/4/68.”Box 5"

    41 NSF, "Head of State Correspondence, USSR, “Kosygin, Volume I, 10/17/64-8/27-68”[Pueblo Incident]"

    42 "Foreign Relations of the United States Vol. ⅩⅩⅨ. Part.1. Korea"

    43 George, Alexander L., "Forceful Persuasion: Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War" Institute of Peace 1991

    44 Mobley, Richard A., "Flash Point North Korea" Naval Institute Press 2003

    45 NSF, "Files of Walt Rostow.“ Vance Report-Korea.”(Pueblo). Box 10"

    46 NSF, "Files of Walt Rostow.“ Pueblo and Vietnam.”Box 10"

    47 NSF, "Files of Walt Rostow.“ Material re: Vietnam and Pueblo, 1-2/68.”Box 10"

    48 NSF, "Files of Walt Rostow. “The President’s File for Korea, Vietnam (Briefings).” Box 10"

    49 "Defense paper(ND), ND 19/CO 151“ Korea-pueblo.”"

    50 NSF, "Country File. Korea. Box 254-265"

    51 "Congressional Record 114"

    52 "Cabinet Papers.“ 1/31/68 Meeting.”"

    53 Bucher, Lloyd, "Bucher: My Story" Doubleday 1970

    54 Schumacher, F. Carl, "Bridge of No Return" Harcourt Brace Jovanovich 1971

    55 Pape, Robert A., "Bombing to Win" Cornell University Press 1996

    56 Schelling, Thomas, "Arms and Influence" Yale University Press 1966

    57 NSF, "Agency File.“ Department of Defense-Military Exercises, Vol. 5.”(Korea) Box 23"

    58 Lerner, Mitchell B., "A Dangerous Miscalculation: New Evidence from Communist-Bloc Archives about North Korea and the Crisis of 1968" 6 (6): 2004

    59 정성윤, "1차 사료를 통한 북미간 협상과정 분석 :1968년 북한의 푸에블로호 나포사건을 중심으로" 한국전략문제연구소 15 (15): 164-203, 2008

    60 정성윤, "1968년 북한의 푸에블로호 나포 원인에 대한 연구" 동아시아국제정치학회 11 (11): 247-275, 2008

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