Evolution of China's Economy and Monetary Policy: An Empirical Evaluation Using a TVP-VAR Model

Kim, Seewon Korea Institute for International Economic Policy 2021 East Asian Economic Review Vol.25 No.1

China has experienced many structural changes in the process of economic development over the past three decades. Using a time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility and mixture innovations, this study investigates whether such structural changes in, especially tools and operational aims of monetary policy, affect the monetary transmission mechanism. We find that impulse responses of output growth and inflation to monetary shocks have substantially increased and then reversed to decrease around 2005-2006. This time variation is mainly caused by changes in the monetary transmission mechanism, i.e., the manner in which main macroeconomic variables respond to policy shocks, rather than by changes in volatilities of exogenous shocks. The result implies that aggressive monetary policy to facilitate economic growth in the developing economies may be legitimized, unless it causes inflation seriously.

Non-Tariff Trade Policy in the Context of Deep Trade Integration: An Ex-Post Gravity Model Application to the EU-South Korea Agreement

Grubler, Julia,Reiter, Oliver Korea Institute for International Economic Policy 2021 East Asian Economic Review Vol.25 No.1

Many different approaches and databases have been developed for the evaluation of non-tariff measures (NTMs) and free trade agreements (FTAs). This paper is devoted to the EU-South Korea agreement, which is the first 'second-generation' FTA of the EU, addressing a wide array of non-tariff policies. We review the evolution of NTM types applicable to the EU-South Korea trade relationship and the role of NTMs in ex-ante and ex-post analyses of the agreement. Subsequently a structural gravity model is employed to assess the value added of information on different aspects of FTAs and types of NTMs by evaluating their ability to predict the trade effects of the EU-South Korea FTA. Our results show that, when accounting for information on the components common in modern deep trade agreements, no additional trade effect is attributable to the EU-South Korea FTA. The evolution of NTMs differs considerably across indicators used, but trade predictions are hardly affected. Most specifications point towards a negative effect of bilateral differences in the number of technical barriers to trade (TBT) applied and sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) against which trading partners issued complaints at the WTO.

Does Inward Foreign Direct Investment Affect Productivity across Industries in Korea?

Jang, Yong Joon Korea Institute for International Economic Policy 2021 East Asian Economic Review Vol.25 No.2

This paper empirically examines whether and how inward foreign direct investment (FDI) affected industrial productivity in Korea during the 2000-2016 period, based on dynamic panel data of inflow FDI on an arrival basis from 427 manufacturing industries. The paper adds to the literature by analyzing whether both technology spillovers and industrial restructuring from inward FDI can differ according to industrial characteristics such as capital intensity, imported intermediate inputs, and tariffs. The empirical results show that the overall effects of inward FDI on total factor productivity (TFP) were statistically insignificant in general. However, the positive effects of inward FDI on productivity became statistically significant for industries with lower tariffs. Capital intensity were not involved in the relationship between inward FDI and productivity. Thus, the paper highlights that the results in previous studies with inward FDI on a notification basis were overestimated and inward FDI policies in Korea should focus on channels such as trade liberalization and the redistribution of production factors rather than capital accumulation.

Institutional Quality, Regulatory Environment and Microeconomic Performance: Evidence from Transition and Non-transition Developing Countries

Ochieng, Haggai Kennedy,Park, Bokyeong Korea Institute for International Economic Policy 2021 East Asian Economic Review Vol.25 No.3

The development of regulatory systems varies between transition and non-transition economies. This suggests that they provide different incentives for entrepreneurial development and could have varied effects on the economy because they have different methods to deal with market failure. However, limited empirical evidence exists to prove the assumption of dichotomy. Using comprehensive data for institutional quality, labor market and financial market development, this research sought to analyze their effect on employment growth at micro level. The results show that the quality of institutions in transition economies are poorer relative to those in non-transition economies, but their financial and labor markets are more developed than the latter. Further analysis for the transition sample shows that the three variables are individually positively related with employment growth. For the non-transition sample, institutional quality and labor market flexibility bear a positive and significant effect on employment. Financial market development enters the model with a negative coefficient when regressed alone, but a joint test of significance finds that all the variables have a positive effect on employment growth. This result could imply that there is interdependence between institutional quality, labor flexibility and financial market development in firm-employment-growth relationship, or complementarity between regulations and the quality of institutions. Alternatively, this finding suggests that a stringently regulated credit market in non-transition economies have a selection effect-allocating credit only to entrepreneurs who already demonstrate strong growth potential. In sum, despite differences in the evolution of regulatory environment between the two samples, both of them complement employment growth at firm level. The overall implication of these findings is that less rigid regulations and coherent policies that are enforced with impartiality provide incentives for firms to expand.

The Effect of High-Skilled Emigration, Foreign Direct Investment, and Policy on the Growth Rate of Source Countries: A Panel Analysis

Kim, Jisong,Lee, Nah Youn Korea Institute for International Economic Policy 2016 East Asian Economic Review Vol.20 No.2

We study the effect of the high-skilled emigration rate on the growth rate of the source countries. We incorporate the foreign direct investment and the policy variables into the panel model and also their interactions with the high-skilled emigration rate, as they are related to the network externality that may be created by the high-skilled emigrants working abroad. We apply the static fixed-effects model and compare it with the results obtained in the dynamic panel model with system generalized methods of moments estimators. We find the negative effect of the high-skilled emigration rate by itself and in its interaction with the foreign direct investment only in the dynamic model. However, we find positive coefficient for the interaction of the high-skilled emigration rate and the civil liberties index, which holds across the static and dynamic specifications. This implies that the effect of the high-skilled emigration rate on the growth rate of the source countries can be positive, and the extent is larger for countries with 'poor' civil liberties. The developing countries with low levels of foreign direct investment inflows and 'poor' civil liberties can best benefit from the high levels of skilled emigration outward. Through finding significant interactions with other variables, we confirm that the high-skilled emigration should be considered along with other related variables in measuring its impact on growth. The implications offer suggestions for the international trade and aid policies.

The Economics of Conflict and Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific: RCEP, CPTPP and the US-China Trade War

Park, Cyn-Young,Petri, Peter A.,Plummer, Michael G. Korea Institute for International Economic Policy 2021 East Asian Economic Review Vol.25 No.3

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, signed in November 2020, comes shortly after the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) entered into force and the US-China Trade War escalated. We use a computable general equilibrium model to assess the long-term effects of these three developments on income, trade, economic structure, factor returns and employment across the world, and especially in Asia-Pacific countries. The results suggest that RCEP could generate income gains that will be almost twice as large as those of the CPTPP, and that the two agreements together will largely offset the substantial negative effects of the US-China Trade War for the world as a whole. All three policy developments, but especially RCEP, will deepen East Asian production networks and will raise productivity and increase wages and employment in much of East Asia. At the sectoral level, regional trade in non-durable and durable manufactures will experience the most growth.

Specialization, Firm Dynamics and Economic Growth

Cho, Jaehan,Ge, Zhizhuang Korea Institute for International Economic Policy 2019 East Asian Economic Review Vol.23 No.2

Productivity in agriculture or services has long been understood as playing an important role in the growth of manufacturing. In this paper we present a general equilibrium model in which manufacturing growth is stimulated by non-manufacturing sectors that provides goods used in both research and final consumption. The model permits the evaluation of two policy options for stimulating manufacturing growth: (1) a country imports more non-manufacturing goods from a foreign country with higher productivity and (2) a country increases productivity of domestic non-manufacturing. We find that both policies improve welfare of the economy, but depending on the policy the manufacturing sector responses differently. Specifically, employment and value-added in manufacturing increase with policy (1), but contract with policy (2). Therefore, specialization of the import non-manufactured goods helps explain why some Asian economies experience rapid growth in the manufacturing sector without progress in other sectors.

The Index of Asia-Pacific Regional Integration Effort

Ye, Victor Yifan,Mikic, Mia Korea Institute for International Economic Policy 2016 East Asian Economic Review Vol.20 No.2

The Asia-Pacific region is not typically seen as one geographic or socio-economic space. Yet, 58 regional economies occupying the space of 28 million square kilometers from Turkey in the West, Russian Federation in the North, French Polynesia in the East and New Zealand in the South belong to the Economic and Social Commission of Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). This commission provides a forum for member states that "promotes regional cooperation and collective action, assisting countries in building and sustaining shared economic growth and social equity". In 2013, ESCAP's members adopted the Bangkok Declaration to enhance efforts towards deeper regional economic integration. Yet this document neither proposes a concrete modality or modalities of achieving deeper integration, nor provides a sense of distance of individual countries to a "perceived" integrated Asia-Pacific.This paper aims to comprehensively quantify recent integration efforts of economies in the Asia-Pacific region. We provide an "index of integration effort" based on twelve metrics that measure the relative distance of a given economy to the region as an economic entity. Generally, we find that while the region has trended towards becoming integrated in general, both the level of integration and integration effort are inconsistent among Asia-Pacific economies. We discuss potential applications and extensions of the index in developing our perspective of the region's economic and social dynamics.

R&D Spillovers with Endogenous Absorptive Capacity: Lessons for Developing Countries

Bae, Chankwon Korea Institute for International Economic Policy 2016 East Asian Economic Review Vol.20 No.2

This paper analyzes the role of absorptive capacity in R&D spillovers through strategic R&D investments in a game-theoretic framework. In the model, a firm's effective R&D is composed of idiosyncratic R&D, which produces its own innovations, and identical R&D, which improves absorptive capacity. The model shows that in the presence of absorptive capacity firms have a tendency to underinvest (overinvest) in idiosyncratic (identical) R&D relative to the social optimum. As the spillover becomes larger, firms decrease their own R&D while they become more inclined towards strategic exploitation of rivals' efforts. Since the former effect overpowers the latter, the total amount of R&D decreases as the spillover increases. This is socially undesirable, providing a potential justification for a governmental subsidy for idiosyncratic R&D and a tax on identical R&D. The findings may have important implications for newly industrialized or emerging countries that consider a redirection of national R&D policy and intellectual property rights (IPR) regime.

Estimating the Knowledge Capital Model for Foreign Investment in Services: The Case of Singapore

Chellaraj, Gnanaraj,Mattoo, Aaditya Korea Institute for International Economic Policy 2019 East Asian Economic Review Vol.23 No.2

Singapore's inward and outward investments with industrialized countries in both manufacturing and service sectors were skill seeking while outward investments to developing countries were labor seeking. Applying the Knowledge-Capital model, it was found that services Foreign Direct Investment is sensitive to skill differences. A ten-percent decline in skill differences with industrialized countries resulted in a 4.25 percent rise in inbound manufacturing and 1.48 percent rise in inbound services investments. Meanwhile, a ten-percent increase in skill differences with developing countries resulted in a 30 percent rise in outbound manufacturing and 0.38 percent rise in services investments. Furthermore, when services are distinguished by skill-intensity, the impact of relative skill endowments on inbound Foreign Direct Investment in skill-intensive services is significantly different from the impact on other services. However, when services are disaggregated by "proximity" needs, we do not find any significant difference in the impact of relative skill endowments on Foreign Direct Investment.