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오늘 본 자료
Application of Archimedean Copulas to the Analysis of Drought Decadal Variation in China
Dongdong Zuo,Guolin Feng,Zengping Zhang,Wei Hou 한국기상학회 2018 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.54 No.2
The joint probability and return period were calculated to analyze the drought characteristics and decadal variation. According to the fit analysis, the Gumbel-Hougaard copula provided the best fit to the observed data. Based on four drought duration classifications and four severity classifications, the drought events were divided into 16 drought types according to the different combinations of duration and severity classifications, and the probability and return period were analyzed for different drought types. The results showed that the occurring probability of six common drought types (0 < D ≤ 1 and 0.5 < S ≤ 1, 1 < D ≤ 3 and 0.5 < S ≤ 1, 1 < D ≤ 3 and 1 < S ≤ 1.5, 1 < D ≤ 3 and 1.5 < S ≤ 2, 1 < D ≤ 3 and 2 < S, and 3 < D ≤ 6 and 2 < S) accounted for 76% of the total probability of all types.