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Ji-Eun Kim,Ryohei Yamaguchi,Keith B. Rodgers,Axel Timmermann,Sun-Seon Lee,Karl Stein,Gokhan Danabasoglu,Jean-Francois Lamarque,John T. Fasullo,Clara Deser,Isla Simpson,Jennifer E. Kay 한국기상학회 2021 한국기상학회 학술대회 논문집 Vol.2021 No.10
A merged biomass burning (BB) aerosol emission dataset of satellite observations with fire proxies and fire models has been used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations for the historical period. Although this utilizes best estimates of fire emissions based on available observations, it results in inconsistency in interannual variability of BB forcing in CMIP6 between the satellite-based Global Fire Emissions Database period (1997-2014) and other periods. Here, we present multiyear mean climate responses to interannually varying BB emissions using the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) in which 50 members follow the CMIP6-provided BB emissions and another 50 members are forced by a temporally smoothed version of the same BB emissions. This design of the CESM2-LE provides a unique opportunity to identify a forced climate response to interannual fluctuations of fire emissions with high fidelity. While mean aerosol emissions are approximately conserved between the two sets of ensembles, there are detectable losses of Arctic sea ice and warming of the Northern Hemisphere in response to variable emissions. We also find that the multiyear warming occurs in concert with a net loss of soil ice and water in addition to the loss of sea ice. Investigation of the seasonal evolution of perturbations and responses suggests that these net changes are due to a nonlinear response of ice melting and freezing to decreased and increased BB aerosols, respectively, that are further enhanced by various feedbacks. Our findings highlight that interannual variability in aerosols can influence climate over timescales of multiple years through interactions with the cryosphere.